November outlook

After a strange month of October (finishing as one of the top 10 coldest recorded), can November be colder? We've just had a 10+ day string of BELOW normal temperatures and it has felt like January at times. However, November does show signs of change for our immediate area.

Temperatures:

I don't see November being warmer than normal, but I also don't think the extreme cold will dominate like it did for so many days last month. The biggest chill looks like it will be across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Kansas is likely going to be on the edge of it all, so we should have some decent stretches of weather coming up.

Precipitation:

As drought continues to expand across much of western Kansas (and even some areas in central Kansas now too), the outlook in November isn't good. A northwest wind flow aloft isn't helpful in bringing moisture to our area. Nine times out of ten, Gulf of Mexico moisture gets pushed away to the southeast and we get missed. That's what concerns me this month. So that's why I'm leaning toward this month having lower than normal precipitation across the Plains and into the Rockies. The image below shows the expected rainfall by the end of next week (Nov. 8)

Late month switch:
It could start to get interesting late in November if the pattern shifts heading toward Thanksgiving. At least one model does show the potential of storms tracking through the Southwest, and that's the track we need to bring moisture back this way. We will have to wait at least 2-3 weeks before there's any decent change, but will it happen AND will it last long enough to ease drought? We shall see.

Have a great weekend.