When will it change?

Frustration is growing with some of you given this lack of precipitation lately. Our HUGE temperature changes lately have been nothing short of incredible, and one might expect some kind of rain or snow to go along with it. However, this time of year when the humidity just isn't there and Gulf of Mexico moisture is pushed so far south, it tends to be a dry time of year.

How likely are we to see record highs Saturday?

I don't see us getting that warm, but here are the numbers we'd have to beat if we are going to make history. I'm not forecasting any 80s, but some areas won't be that far off. Enjoy the day because this isn't something we get very often in November (last year we only had one 70° day and it came right after Thanksgiving) This could very well be the last 70 for awhile.

Cold air returning next week

This is a big blast of Arctic Air moving south and we will fall below normal yet again. We will once again be watching to see if we can set records, but some of the records might just be out of reach. Time will tell, but if conditions are right, some single digit low temperatures could show up Tuesday morning.

When will it rain again?
That's the million dollar question. And most of the signals on long range computer models are VERY discouraging. Some of the models have wanted to trend us back toward active weather in about 10 days, but I am not sure that's going to happen. When we have conflicting information among various models, we can turn to a "blend" of other data to get a feel for what's probably going to happen (nothing is guaranteed). The setup just doesn't look that promising for change in the next couple of weeks. We continue to see a lot of blocking (almost like a traffic jam on the west coast), preventing more significant changes from moving this way. As soon as we see something, I'll be sure to post something about it. In the meantime, here's a look at what we are seeing for the end of next week (around Nov. 16/17) It doesn't look nearly as cold AND it continues to look mainly dry.

Here's the GFS (American model): when the jet stream is split (not organized), chances of widespread moisture are very low. This particular pattern does NOT look nearly as cold for Kansas.

European model idea: (similar as the one above, which doesn't favor precipitation for Kansas)

And forecast rainfall for the next 10 days - not good: