Winter Forecast 2019-20

Here you go... my thoughts on what could be coming up for our winter season. It feels like we've been in winter now for at least a month. We started getting snow back in the middle of October and people told me I needed to get the winter outlook posted then. But we try to hold off until just before Thanksgiving to allow for some time to study patterns and sort through the data.

Here's what I'm thinking on our upcoming winter season:

Unfortunately, for the drought areas in western Kansas, I don't see it getting better during the course of our winter. It may not get that much worse, but improvement during the winter is unlikely. Last year, we had close to 30 inches of snow in the northwest and just over 20 inches in the southwest. This year, I expect lower snow totals across the entire state. Wichita had about 10 inches from first flake to last, and this winter, it most likely won't be as much. I'm going with a 5-15" prediction for central and eastern Kansas. I also expect much of the area will have a cold winter ahead.

What are the driving factors:

Very warm water in the north Pacific and Gulf of Alaska is pretty significant this year. That build up of warm water will likely lead to a somewhat persistent high pressure. When this happens, there is a tendency to unleash some big chunks of COLD air down the eastern side of the Rockies. We've already watched this happen once in November. It may happen a time or two in December, but the longer periods of cold and Arctic air will likely show up quite a bit in January and February.  Winds around high pressure blow clockwise, and that wind direction coming off the snow pack in Canada will be something to watch (or run away from if you don't like the cold weather)

There is a second pattern that will show up this winter too:

This setup will be interesting and our only hope of getting some precipitation in here this winter. However, I'm a bit concerned that storms will not organize until they are south or east of us, taking MOST of the rains/snows east and southeast of Kansas. It will be a close call, but in studying the patterns, it sure looks like Kansas is NOT in the right spot to get the good moisture. Big precipitation will likely head south into Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas. So with that, I'm leaning on drier than normal weather throughout most of the winter and the reasoning behind my lower snow totals for Kansas.

Where's El Nino:

Water temperatures ARE warmer than normal in the area that is monitored for El Nino, but it's very weak and likely a weak part of what influences our weather this winter. Typically, El Nino winters have a tendency toward wetter than normal conditions, but I don't see that happening for Kansas over the next several months. You can look at the map above and see the area outlined in the box does show some "red", indicating the slightly warmer than normal water. But in the grand scheme of it all, it's weak.

Long range forecasts are tricky, but that's what I'm thinking for our winter season. If you like snow, it's not the best of news. If you had hoped for drought easing moisture, this forecast is probably disappointing too. We will see how it all goes this winter and if you have questions, please reach out.