Active weather begins - rain, thunder, and snow chances

Just a week out from Thanksgiving and our weather is turning from dry and boring ... same ol' same ol' to something that could be beneficial for more Kansans. Let's go through each event as it should play out. A reminder, the Winter Forecast is coming out Thursday night so you can gauge what Storm Team 12 is thinking as the official start to winter is about a month away.

Wednesday afternoon (today):
Chances for rain AND thunderstorms across the Plains today. Set your rainfall expectations at .25" and understand there will be areas that get more - with western Kansas probably getting less than .25". The issue is that the rain will not be around for very long, taking away chances of getting a nice, good soaking.

First rains will likely develop and move in around 2/3 p.m. and then cruise to the northeast. By 10 p.m.,  chances are going to diminish fairly quickly with the rest of the overnight period mainly rain free.

Second wave - Thursday night/Friday:

As the main low pressure tracks over Kansas (this is coming in from the Southwest part of the US) we will have another chance at some moisture. It won't be very much, but some light snow will move from southwest to northeast. Snow accumulations should be under an inch, and most of it will probably melt as it falls (with temps near 40°). I don't expect road conditions to be much of an issue throughout the day, so if you needed to get somewhere Friday morning or afternoon, you should be just fine.

Thanksgiving week:
There are so many images being shared on social media. Some of them are scary looking, especially when considering travel plans for next week. Should you change your plans or cancel? One of the things to consider and PLEASE keep in mind, we are discussing something here that isn't reality yet. Models are crunching math equations to try and help us figure out what or if, something is going to develop next week.

One model shows this:

Another model shows almost nothing for Thanksgiving week:

What is one supposed to do with this information? For right now, I wouldn't cancel or rearrange any plans. Models are all over the place and just not sure what will happen in our area. This system (if there is to be a storm) will develop RIGHT over Kansas and then move on quickly. As is usually the case, as we get closer to the start of next week, we will have a better handle on this potential setup. You could almost think of this like a puzzle in Wheel of Fortune. As more letters are revealed, you get a better idea of how to solve the puzzle. That's why we are not sounding the alarm on a major winter storm for next week just yet. Updates will be coming... as this is still 6 days away.