November outlook - might be interesting

Heading into November and the weather looks pretty calm for the most part. Will there be another hurricane in the Caribbean? (right now, it sure looks like it)  How soon will another storm impact the Plains? Plus, our winter forecast is coming out November 21st in a half hour special that will air both on KWCH and KSCW.

Here are the November stats on temperatures and moisture

First week of November looks like this:

First weekend in November - signs of a storm developing:

I'm expecting we will see another storm coming in from the west. The areas that are still bone dry, this might be your chance at some rain. This system will likely be slow to develop and move, and chances for mostly rain appear to be on the horizon with it. However, we are seeing signs of much chillier air diving south into the Plains with the storm too. So some of the moisture may turn to snow, especially west and north. In an earlier blog post, I mentioned the Arctic Oscillation as an indicator of warm and cold spells. It goes NEGATIVE in just over a week, so a return to below normal temperatures is likely the right call in about 10-15 days. Look at the map below.

Average Temperatures: Nov. 8-15

Most of the November moisture will come between November 10-20 - this could include some snow for parts of the region. 

As we approach Thanksgiving, we should be on the warming trend again:

I think there's reason to believe that November could be near (to possibly above normal) on moisture for the Plains. I can promise you that the drought won't be over in 30 days, but I see signs that point toward more chances of moisture than what we had in October. Keep in mind, November (on average) is not a very wet month. Averages for Wichita, Dodge, Salina, and Goodland are shown above, but I expect mid-November to be pretty active, and the end of the month could be too. Time will tell.

Rainfall numbers and a look at when more may be coming

What a great rain (for those south of I-70 at least). It is a bit like rubbing salt in an open wound; I understand that. However, the need for moisture is all over the Pains, so the fact that we had anything substantial WITH a hurricane making landfall at the same time is impressive. 

Here are some of the 24 hour numbers ending at 7 a.m. Thursday:

How long will we wait before the next chances arrive?

It's unlikely to happen in the first week of November, but the waiting game may not be as long in this go around. I'm expecting chances for moisture will return in two weeks (putting it somewhere in the November 10-15 day range). How widespread and what areas? Uncertain, but I think we will see our weather get active again before we know it. More low pressure systems should return to the western US as we approach mid-November.

Our winter forecast is coming out November 21st in a 30 minute special. We are excited to share our thoughts with you soon. In the meantime, I'm working on a November outlook which will be posted Friday.

Have a great day.

Plenty more still to come

A storm of this magnitude is something we have needed for many, many weeks. It is still far from over as the core of the storm has yet to come through the region. So settle in for more waves of moisture coming up from the south. 

Today - 

 

Most of the moisture will continue to be across southern Kansas with a mix of sleet/snow early, then changing to some freezing rain moving into the afternoon. It is VERY unlikely to have power outages or tree damage due to the ice because afternoon temperatures should be climbing above freezing. Here's a snapshot of temperatures by mid-afternoon. 

Tonight - 

Expect more moisture pushing in from the south to be encountering temperatures above freezing. So I'm confident that we will be past the threat of icy and slick roads by daybreak Wednesday.

Wednesday/Thursday - Very good chance of rain

Some heavy wet snow may fall down near Amarillo and into the Oklahoma panhandle, but with it getting warmer there's not a huge threat of slick travel. Slushy roads might be a concern, but not likely in Kansas. 

Because this storm will be slow to move, we should expect some very generous rainfall by the time it exits Thursday afternoon.

As I mentioned last week, don't panic that all of a sudden winter is here and there's no more warm weather to come. Early November doesn't look that cold at all - in fact it may end up being above normal for many areas. 

This is crazy for late October

I'm guessing by now you've heard we have a snow chance coming to the Plains in just a matter of days. This is what I love about forecasting weather here in the Plains (especially during the fall). Upper level winds get stronger, temperature changes get more extreme, and before we know it, we've slipped into winter. 

Maybe you remember the earliest snow on record for Goodland actually fell just last month (Sep. 9th with .5"), so snow next week won't likely break "earliest snow records" unless it is unusually heavy. And I'm guessing some of you reading this have experienced snow before in October. It is unusual but definitely not the first time. 

In the upper atmosphere, we see a large buckle in the jet stream winds (coming straight out of the north). We will likely cloud over Sunday with some drizzle, but the mixed freezing drizzle, sleet, or snow shouldn't arrive until Sunday evening-Monday morning. The image below is for Monday mid-morning. Much of the Plains will be getting some kind of wintry weather, which will likely be more sleet-freezing drizzle near the turnpike and snow to the north.

It will stay cold (December or January like) on Monday. Just look at these temperatures suggest by the models. 

I'm not concerned about an ice storm with what I'm seeing now (precipitation isn't heavy enough for that), but wowza - will it be cold! Snow looks more likely across the western half of Kansas and although ground temperatures are warm, we could see minor accumulations. More to come as it gets closer.

 

On the upside (if you don't like cold weather) is that much of the state will have SOME precipitation. Granted, it doesn't appear that it will be enough to catch us up to "normal", but even a half of an inch would be so helpful right now. Big rains this time of the year are somewhat rare, and given that we are in La Nina, they may be even fewer and farther between. Models right now are indicating around .25" to maybe (on the high side) .50"

 

Are we slipping into winter now? Unlikely.

I'm seeing a positive trend in the Arctic Oscillation and that typically indicates cold getting locked up north and NOT diving south. So heading toward Halloween and the beginning of November, you're going to see a nice big warming trend and fall weather looks to return (and stay for awhile). So don't panic yet, but we will end the growing season before Halloween this year.

On rain WATCH and MAJOR October cold snap

We are officially on rain watch in Kansas this week after a month and a half of virtually nothing. It's been a difficult pattern as of late, and the increase in tropical activity has robbed us of at least two recent opportunities. The La Nina pattern mentioned recently on the blog is to blame too, but alas we do have some chances coming to the Plains.

First chance for rain: Tue. night - early Wednesday

What's going to happen is warmer air fights its way back to the north heading into Tuesday night/Wednesday. This warmer air & humidity comes from the Gulf of Mexico, which has largely been absent for the last month or more (hence the dry spell) However, just because we finally have a Gulf connection, don't get too excited about big rainfall this week. We are still missing many features in the upper atmosphere to get a decent soaker. This rain should be under .25"

Wednesday afternoon - warm front passes by

That's when the rain chances will temporarily shut down and the sun will be trying to come back out. I look for most of the state to be back into the 70s, with a few 80s maybe in the southwest.

Thursday cold front - arriving in the evening

Chances for showers will once again develop and push across the eastern 1/2 of Kansas. It's unfortunate that western Kansas will be left out, but that's how the setup looks now (and has been looking for many days) Even though we are about to get hit with some VERY chilly air by October standards, this Thursday front is not going to be a big rain maker.

So here's the rainfall forecast map: T-.50" for areas east of a Hays-Dodge City line

Again, not drought ending but we will be thankful for any drops that might fall over our state. This has been a tough spot to be in lately.

Major cold snap coming?

Certainly looks likely at the start of Halloween week. This could be another front dropping through Sunday (the 25th) with the coldest air of the season so far. Low temperatures headed for the teens/20s would put some parts of the state near record lows. And whether or not there will be moisture to go along with the big change, well, if there is it could be snow. So things are going to get interesting during the remainder of October. 

Cross fingers, toes, wash the car, windows, put some hay down....

Frustration with the weather pattern is running high right now as we just haven't been in a sweet spot for anything other than wind, smoke, and temperature changes. 

I'm still looking at the potential change next week with an abundance of caution, but you might recall that at the beginning of the month, I said late October would be our best hope of moisture. And now that we are moving into that time frame AND seeing what we are seeing, I'm optimistic this may work out for us. 

Often times when I post these updates, many of you ask "what model is what". Typically, the GFS and European models get the most attention and the ones we weight most of the forecast details on.

So here's what the European model shows for a jet stream setup later next week:

And a peek of the GFS:

They do have differences - that's why we need to be careful in getting our hopes up. But, what has caught my attention the last few days is that even if the GFS is correct (which doesn't have much rain next week), it IS showing a developing system around Monday, Oct. 26th. 

So for the first time in over a month, we are seeing something other than high pressure and no rain. We aren't going to end the drought between now and the end of the month, but we do need something and we need it soon.

As confidence grows, we will start talking about possible amounts, but I think it would be better to wait a few more model runs and see where we are headed.

Orionids Meteor Shower: In the meantime, start thinking about meteor shower viewing. The Orionids are peaking next week and it's one of the better ones to view this year. The moon won't be a factor and if we are fortunate enough to have clear skies (which I think we will for peak viewing), it should be a good show.

Like the Energizer bunny, it keeps going and going

It's another dry week and we continue to look for signs of a change. It's our longest dry spell all year and if it keeps going much longer, may end up being our longest dry stretch in the last few years. I'll have to do some digging to find out about that for sure. 

Here's how October is looking so far in terms of temperatures. The western half of the country has been stuck in summer (at least in Kansas we've had some breaks). If the month ended today, it would be the 7th warmest for Wichita. We've had about a half dozen days with record warmth somewhere in Kansas. Just unbelievable actually.

One factor that is causing this dry weather is the La Nina. It started developing months ago and we are firmly entrenched in that setup now. I will be going into more details about this in the coming weeks as we form our winter outlook, but the jet stream winds have been exhibiting classic La Nina now for weeks. Water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, near the equator, are colder than average (influencing the pattern across the United States). 

 

When we see La Nina, jet stream winds coming from the northwest are very common. It's not a good setup for rain in the Plains. Frustration with the lack of moisture is at an all time high right now - but hang in there. We knew the first half of October wasn't going to have rain, but we are moving into the part of the month that has shown signs of moisture. Stay tuned.

We are near average first frost dates in many spots. I'm convinced we have a much better chance at a first, fall frost in the next few weeks than we do of getting rain. I'm watching Friday morning (Oct. 16) and again Monday morning (Oct. 19). Probably not a killing freeze, but we are going to be quite chilly.

Trying to find the positives in all this

Thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up. Someone in our news department asked me the other day if I remember a time when our weather was so boring. Made me laugh for a minute, but what is happening right now in Kansas is stressful. However, its not the most "boring" weather we've had. I think the summer of 2011 and 2012 was much worse when we had 100° temperatures for 40-50 days. THAT was a boring, brutal stretch of weather. I hope we never have that again.

The one thing this weather has been good for lately is planet/stargazing. Clear skies are allowing for some great viewing. 

Meteor shower - not a very good one, but why not look

A much better meteor shower will be coming later this month (Orionids), with a peak expected around October 20/21

Mars - currently have a very close encounter with Earth (but still a whopping 32 million miles away) - It won't be this close to Earth until 2035. You can't miss it when looking into the southeast sky late into the evening. 

Venus - super bright in the morning sky (look to the east). It's visible until the sun comes up, which isn't happening until about 7:30.

Rain chances still on hold for now: my fear all along with Delta coming ashore is that it would rob us of a chance to get some rain with a STRONG cold front coming Sunday night. Models are now showing this trend (and have been for a few days). Any forecast of rain in the next ten days is a false sense of hope. I know it's a serious bummer (and I try my best to be optimistic), but there isn't anything we can do to change it and nothing coming through here looks to change it. We just have to sit back and wait and it could be a LONG wait. 

Isn't this crazy? As we watch Delta come on shore, the landfall will be within about 20 miles of where Laura hit the coast. Just incredible for them to come so close in the SAME season. Our hearts go out to those being affected by the storm. It is the 25th named storm of the Atlantic season, with the record standing at 28 (from 2005). Remember, hurricane season doesn't close until the end of November. And... it is 2020 after all. Stay tuned.

 

A storm to track as we move ahead

It has been the longest dry spell for most of Kansas all year. I know the dry weather has allowed for fall harvest to run essentially uninterrupted, we are needing moisture. 

We are about a week out from our next chance at some rain, but we need to look at the setup with caution. Here's why:

The tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico is still going strong and we will likely have another hurricane hitting Louisiana or Alabama late in the week. Moisture wrapping around the system could very well steal our chances on Monday. We rely so heavily on that Gulf supply that if you have a tropical feature just coming off the warm water, we have serious questions about how quickly moisture can get pushed back into the Plains. 

• If the front comes through before the moisture can make it this far north - we will not get rain. 

So I stress to you that even though we are mentioning some rain for early next week, the setup (as it stands now) will have to change if we are to get more than just a couple of showers - or nothing at all.

Latest track on Hurricane Delta - this could be the feature that robs our chances of rain next week.

It is the ninth hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season (which runs all the way to the end of November). I do expect things to start slowing down here anytime, but in the short term a major hurricane will pass across the Gulf in the coming days. Models are fairly consistent on a Louisiana landfall Friday night.

Record warmth Wednesday? Certainly possible given how high temperatures will go. Here are the numbers to keep track of as temperatures continue to climb.

Are we finally seeing something

I hope you have a great weekend and enjoy the mild weather. I think most of us would sure settle for a nice soaking about now, considering the last real storm we had was back in early September. 

Are we finally seeing something down the stretch?

The short answer is yes, but we still have some time to wait. If you looked at the October outlook posted earlier this week, I mentioned that after October 15th there was hope. It may even be later than October 15th, but know that our chances are basically 0 for rain until we get later in the month.

Here's what the models are showing around that date (or a little after):

This could be a BIG help to the fire situation in the west, because on-shore winds from the Pacific will increase humidity and help cool temperatures. I'm hoping some rain will be arriving too (for the West coast) - time will tell. 

 

In the Plains, a setup like the one shown above, should open the Gulf of Mexico back up and help to increase our rain potential. What we DON'T know yet is how will future tropical systems in the Gulf (see more below) impact the late month setup. Could a tropical system move this way late in the month? Possible, but given its October, that would seem unlikely getting this far north. I think all of our moisture will come in the last 10-12 days of the month. Hang in there - it will surely test our patience.

Eyes on the tropics:

There are two areas that will be watched for further development. Hurricane season isn't over until the end of November, so we will likely continue down the Greek alphabet with Gamma and Delta the next two names on the list. In case you missed it a few weeks back, the last time the Greek alphabet was used in naming storms was in 2005. Such a crazy, historic season and we still have a few months to go.

SMOKE- some of it will be passing through our sky, most notable across southwest Kansas and into Oklahoma. Look for some haze in the southern sky, but the smoke should NOT be as bad as it was about 3-4 weeks ago. This is coming from the Cameron Peak fire in Rocky Mountain National Park.