November outlook - might be interesting

Heading into November and the weather looks pretty calm for the most part. Will there be another hurricane in the Caribbean? (right now, it sure looks like it)  How soon will another storm impact the Plains? Plus, our winter forecast is coming out November 21st in a half hour special that will air both on KWCH and KSCW.

Here are the November stats on temperatures and moisture

First week of November looks like this:

First weekend in November - signs of a storm developing:

I'm expecting we will see another storm coming in from the west. The areas that are still bone dry, this might be your chance at some rain. This system will likely be slow to develop and move, and chances for mostly rain appear to be on the horizon with it. However, we are seeing signs of much chillier air diving south into the Plains with the storm too. So some of the moisture may turn to snow, especially west and north. In an earlier blog post, I mentioned the Arctic Oscillation as an indicator of warm and cold spells. It goes NEGATIVE in just over a week, so a return to below normal temperatures is likely the right call in about 10-15 days. Look at the map below.

Average Temperatures: Nov. 8-15

Most of the November moisture will come between November 10-20 - this could include some snow for parts of the region. 

As we approach Thanksgiving, we should be on the warming trend again:

I think there's reason to believe that November could be near (to possibly above normal) on moisture for the Plains. I can promise you that the drought won't be over in 30 days, but I see signs that point toward more chances of moisture than what we had in October. Keep in mind, November (on average) is not a very wet month. Averages for Wichita, Dodge, Salina, and Goodland are shown above, but I expect mid-November to be pretty active, and the end of the month could be too. Time will tell.