Are we finally seeing something down the stretch?
The short answer is yes, but we still have some time to wait. If you looked at the October outlook posted earlier this week, I mentioned that after October 15th there was hope. It may even be later than October 15th, but know that our chances are basically 0 for rain until we get later in the month.
Here's what the models are showing around that date (or a little after):
This could be a BIG help to the fire situation in the west, because on-shore winds from the Pacific will increase humidity and help cool temperatures. I'm hoping some rain will be arriving too (for the West coast) - time will tell.
In the Plains, a setup like the one shown above, should open the Gulf of Mexico back up and help to increase our rain potential. What we DON'T know yet is how will future tropical systems in the Gulf (see more below) impact the late month setup. Could a tropical system move this way late in the month? Possible, but given its October, that would seem unlikely getting this far north. I think all of our moisture will come in the last 10-12 days of the month. Hang in there - it will surely test our patience.
Eyes on the tropics:
There are two areas that will be watched for further development. Hurricane season isn't over until the end of November, so we will likely continue down the Greek alphabet with Gamma and Delta the next two names on the list. In case you missed it a few weeks back, the last time the Greek alphabet was used in naming storms was in 2005. Such a crazy, historic season and we still have a few months to go.
SMOKE- some of it will be passing through our sky, most notable across southwest Kansas and into Oklahoma. Look for some haze in the southern sky, but the smoke should NOT be as bad as it was about 3-4 weeks ago. This is coming from the Cameron Peak fire in Rocky Mountain National Park.
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