On rain WATCH and MAJOR October cold snap

We are officially on rain watch in Kansas this week after a month and a half of virtually nothing. It's been a difficult pattern as of late, and the increase in tropical activity has robbed us of at least two recent opportunities. The La Nina pattern mentioned recently on the blog is to blame too, but alas we do have some chances coming to the Plains.

First chance for rain: Tue. night - early Wednesday

What's going to happen is warmer air fights its way back to the north heading into Tuesday night/Wednesday. This warmer air & humidity comes from the Gulf of Mexico, which has largely been absent for the last month or more (hence the dry spell) However, just because we finally have a Gulf connection, don't get too excited about big rainfall this week. We are still missing many features in the upper atmosphere to get a decent soaker. This rain should be under .25"

Wednesday afternoon - warm front passes by

That's when the rain chances will temporarily shut down and the sun will be trying to come back out. I look for most of the state to be back into the 70s, with a few 80s maybe in the southwest.

Thursday cold front - arriving in the evening

Chances for showers will once again develop and push across the eastern 1/2 of Kansas. It's unfortunate that western Kansas will be left out, but that's how the setup looks now (and has been looking for many days) Even though we are about to get hit with some VERY chilly air by October standards, this Thursday front is not going to be a big rain maker.

So here's the rainfall forecast map: T-.50" for areas east of a Hays-Dodge City line

Again, not drought ending but we will be thankful for any drops that might fall over our state. This has been a tough spot to be in lately.

Major cold snap coming?

Certainly looks likely at the start of Halloween week. This could be another front dropping through Sunday (the 25th) with the coldest air of the season so far. Low temperatures headed for the teens/20s would put some parts of the state near record lows. And whether or not there will be moisture to go along with the big change, well, if there is it could be snow. So things are going to get interesting during the remainder of October.