This is crazy for late October

I'm guessing by now you've heard we have a snow chance coming to the Plains in just a matter of days. This is what I love about forecasting weather here in the Plains (especially during the fall). Upper level winds get stronger, temperature changes get more extreme, and before we know it, we've slipped into winter. 

Maybe you remember the earliest snow on record for Goodland actually fell just last month (Sep. 9th with .5"), so snow next week won't likely break "earliest snow records" unless it is unusually heavy. And I'm guessing some of you reading this have experienced snow before in October. It is unusual but definitely not the first time. 

In the upper atmosphere, we see a large buckle in the jet stream winds (coming straight out of the north). We will likely cloud over Sunday with some drizzle, but the mixed freezing drizzle, sleet, or snow shouldn't arrive until Sunday evening-Monday morning. The image below is for Monday mid-morning. Much of the Plains will be getting some kind of wintry weather, which will likely be more sleet-freezing drizzle near the turnpike and snow to the north.

It will stay cold (December or January like) on Monday. Just look at these temperatures suggest by the models. 

I'm not concerned about an ice storm with what I'm seeing now (precipitation isn't heavy enough for that), but wowza - will it be cold! Snow looks more likely across the western half of Kansas and although ground temperatures are warm, we could see minor accumulations. More to come as it gets closer.

 

On the upside (if you don't like cold weather) is that much of the state will have SOME precipitation. Granted, it doesn't appear that it will be enough to catch us up to "normal", but even a half of an inch would be so helpful right now. Big rains this time of the year are somewhat rare, and given that we are in La Nina, they may be even fewer and farther between. Models right now are indicating around .25" to maybe (on the high side) .50"

 

Are we slipping into winter now? Unlikely.

I'm seeing a positive trend in the Arctic Oscillation and that typically indicates cold getting locked up north and NOT diving south. So heading toward Halloween and the beginning of November, you're going to see a nice big warming trend and fall weather looks to return (and stay for awhile). So don't panic yet, but we will end the growing season before Halloween this year.