Advertised rains are finally in sight

We've been advertising "wetter than normal" on this blog and although we've made the turn to an active pattern, there's still so many areas of the state waiting on moisture. The winter wheat (at least in south central Kansas) has a head and the grain is filling. This can be such a critical time for it to get some rain, and I'm hopeful that within the next week, most (if not all) of Kansas will have had at least .50" or an inch of rain. 

Rains today (Tuesday) will continue in Kansas with the heaviest winding up in the western half. 

We get a midweek break, so Wednesday and most of Thursday looks pretty tame. However, starting Thursday night and continuing into the first half of next week, more rain and thunder should be coming.

Nighttime storms seem most probable as we hit the end of the week and go into the weekend. This will be a combination of a low pressure coming from the west AND a front setting up in the area. 

Let's preview some different time periods down the road:

Thursday night:

 

There's some question as to how far south storms will go, but safe to say areas along and north of I-70 have some of the better chances here.

Friday night: Severe chances are low at best. The setup might favor some small hail and brief gusty winds, but it's not a strong signal for severe weather.

Saturday night:

Sunday night:

Early next week:

The main low pressure (at 15,000-20,000 feet) will be on the move toward the Plains. This should serve as a stronger signal for more rain as we get some help from the upper atmosphere involved.

Later this week I'll post a rainfall forecast map so you can see just how much rain different parts of the state may receive. In the meantime, we will hopefully get some of the specifics worked out so we can cast more confidence on timing of storms at the end of this week.

A new drought map was released late last week showing southern Kansas back in "abnormally dry" while the west is still working to diminish drought (still in "moderate" classification). hopefully the next week will ease this even more.