Tornado count is up, but this isn't normal

This week has been a little busier than most weeks and it is finally feeling like typical May in Kansas. One of the first questions that comes up in our newsroom is "how many tornadoes did we have today/this week". It is usually a difficult question because there is a big difference between "reports" and "actual tornadoes". On the smaller tornadoes, how long was it on the ground before a new tornado developed? Was it all the same tornado? It can be a little messy. We believe there were at least 7 tornadoes that occurred Monday evening in western Kansas. 

Consider May 2020 (which was also VERY slow for tornadoes) had:

• 11 tornadoes (5 EF0, 6 EF unknown)

Consider May 2019:

• 68 tornadoes (1 EF4, 1 EF3, 9 EF2, 21 EF1, 36 EF unknown)

There will be chances of tornadoes Wednesday and Thursday, so please stay alert. However, as the end of this active stretch draws to a close, I still think we will end up with a record low number of tornadoes for the month. It's been really strange the last few years.

A couple more rounds of storms, and then a break:

The forecast models have been messy lately (which has made it tough to pin down when our highest rain chances would be), but now we are feeling more confident in what should play out. 

Wednesday:

 

Warmer air pushing back to the north will set off thunderstorms across northern Kansas and Nebraska. There should be a fairly big area of storms riding the state line, and then gradually turning southeast into the overnight. This kind of setup will favor a bunch of high wind gusts, maybe over 70 mph in places. If you are north of a line from Scott City to Hays to Salina, be on guard for the increased threat of severe weather. And this will go well into the night.

Leftover from Wednesday is an important factor for Thursday:

Rain cooled air may be moving across south central Kansas late Thursday morning or early afternoon. This may help to shove the bigger storms south of the Turnpike by the afternoon, but we are still going to have a severe threat in the area. It is highly likely that by midnight, most if not all of the severe weather will be in Oklahoma of far southeast Kansas. 

What about all this rain you might be hearing about for the weekend?

The pattern will favor storm chances on the High Plains of eastern Colorado that could drift out into western Kansas into the overnight hours. Chances should fade away as they try to move to the east, so the entire holiday weekend won't be lost to thunderstorms.

I'm working on putting up a June outlook, which will be coming this weekend. Stay safe out there as we wait for break in the severe weather, which for many is coming soon.