From drought to flooding?

Rainfall in Kansas lately has been pretty strange acting, with a handful of places getting a bunch, and 5 miles down the road, maybe nothing at all. The new drought map just released this morning (Thursday) continues to show an expanding area across south central and now central Kansas. 

The map below is "percent of normal rain" over the last two weeks, and you get a sense of just how localized the big rains have been. There's an area near Salina, a pocket west of Great Bend, and some north and west of Garden City. Other than that, it's very dry. The red shades are "10% of normal rain" with yellow/orange roughly "50% of normal"

 

We will be in a setup where the atmosphere won't change too much day to day. Humidity will be up, a series of small (but important) pieces of energy will kick out of the Rockies and High Plains and setoff thunderstorms. What makes this such a tough forecast is the setup each night will be dictated by what happens the previous night. That being said, as meteorologist we recognize this pattern as being one that should favor heavy rain with severe weather being a lower threat. 

Thu. Night/early Friday:

This first round is headed for northern Kansas to start, then rain goes southeast and begins to fade Friday morning. Areas east of I-135 will have the highest chances.

Friday night/early Saturday:

 

Severe chance is low, but given a stalled front somewhere in Kansas, we anticipate more thunderstorms developing and tracking east with potential of heavy rain. This could be a statewide chance for rain, unless storms from 24 hours prior mess something up. 

Saturday night/early Sunday:

 

Are you noticing a pattern here - nighttime and early morning chances. I would anticipate the potential being higher over the southern 1/2 of Kansas (closer to the actual stalled front). Once again, a low end severe threat. 

Sunday night:

This round of rain will most likely be focused southwest and south central Kansas, with areas farther north (of I-70 at least) not likely getting very much. Storms have a tendency to force fronts farther south when they happen in successive rounds. That means by the time we get to Monday & Tuesday, most of the rain will be in Oklahoma. 

Early next week:

The focus turns to an approaching low pressure arriving from the west - this will serve as yet another trigger for rain. I would (at this point in time) say the chance is pretty equal for any area of the state to get rain. It could be west or east, but most of us will get a shot at rain. 

It's a pretty busy pattern, but considering heavy rain is our biggest threat in the next 4-5 days and it's mid-May, I'd say we are doing fine. Anyone that has lived around here for awhile knows this could be a rough period of time, but the setup just isn't there for major severe weather.