We do have a chance for some rain coming Wednesday, but lower humidity levels will keep storms from reaching any strong or severe thresholds. It all comes back to the dew points, and when they are down in the 30s and 40s, you very rarely get severe storms out of that AND rainfall amounts tend to be lower too. Humidity is such a key.
This coming weekend & beyond:
A period of more active weather looks to return with several days of potential storms. One of the first signs is the developing low pressure in the upper atmosphere that sets up west of the Rockies.
One of the first rounds of rain will probably come Friday (morning and night) as warmer air/more humid air pushes back north. Depending on how soon the morning rain clears, that may dictate what sets up for the afternoon. Potential is there for more hail and wind storms going into Friday night.
Best chance for severe:
This would be Saturday night with a cold front encountering some very warm air across central and eastern Kansas. At this time, wind and hail would be the threats once storms get going. Again, specific details this many days out are hard to pin down, but keep this time frame in mind when looking ahead to Mother's Day weekend. I would expect this might be a 7pm-2am window for the severe weather.
Mother's Day: Clouds and cooler - but should be dry. Much of Kansas will be 10-20° below normal highs in the 70s.
More chances coming early next week:
The main storm west of the Rockies should kick on to the east early next week, potentially setting off more rain. .
Rainfall outlook:
Over the course of the next 10 days, here's a snapshot of what our total rainfall might look like around the Plains. Remember, it is just a model and much can change, but hopefully this will help some of us from getting discouraged due to the lack of soaking rains lately.
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