Severe potential Saturday - plus, the February version in May

Severe thunderstorms are still looking like a good possibility on Saturday, but not for all areas of the state. The focus continues to look like central, south central, and areas east of the Flint Hills. We haven't had that many severe setups to look at this spring, which is saying something when you are reaching the peak of the season here soon.

Saturday setup:

Ingredients are lining up to have a threat of some wind, hail, and an isolated tornado. If you look at the map above, the arrows indicate potential initiation spots in the afternoon. The area around Hays, Russell, Great Bend is of particular interest because it's closer to the low pressure system itself. However, as we've talked about before on this blog, if even one ingredient is missing, it can sure change a forecast. We have high confidence that storms will form, but confidence drops when it comes to figuring out the severity. There will be plenty of humidity, warm air, and wind, but what might be limiting the severe threat is warmer air about 6,000-7,000 feet off the ground. Nonetheless, you'll want to check back for other updates as we head into the weekend. 

February comes back in May:

Remember the brutally cold snap we had in mid February? Well, you could say that the May version is coming next week. It's only around for 2 or 3 days, but we are once again looking at a string of cooler than average weather. This is what follows our weekend storm chances. It's not record cold, but highs in the 50s and 60s look like a good bet through at least the middle of the week. That will dampen the hail and wind threats for the Plains.

More rain is coming - standby:

There's still reason to be optimistic for more rain as May continues. Drought has expanded because April wasn't that helpful for moisture. We are expecting more active weather into the western US soon, which will put the Plains in the running for thunderstorms. If you take a look at the period of May 15-20, much of Kansas is forecast to receive above normal moisture. What does that actually mean? I would say there's strong potential of at least 1-2 inches, perhaps more if the approaching features slow down and stay for more than just 12 or 24 hours.