Rain update & a peek into April weather

Rain is moving in for the weekend, but as we started noticing yesterday (and even Wednesday too), the rain is going to be gone by the second half of the weekend. So this is probably a good change for us, considering the flooding nearby and how saturated the ground is.

A sneak peek at how much rain we are thinking:

Western Kansas should get the most with .50-.75"
Amounts will gradually decrease moving farther east, but central Kansas should get .25"-.50"
South central Kansas is looking at about .25"

We do expect a few thunderstorms over the Friday/Saturday time frame, but they won't be severe given the lack of other important ingredients (one of them being warmer temperatures)

Sunday - forecast changed!
In case you haven't heard, we've pushed the rain out of here for Sunday, so we will likely end up with some sun and clouds, but unlikely there will be rain. And we could be close to 70° in some areas across the south.

Peek into early April:

I've been looking at the setup and we may go through another brief cold spell. This won't be record cold, BUT... if you are planning to start your garden or put some plants in the ground beware. Some low temperatures will drop below freezing yet.

Have a great weekend! I will be out of the office for much of the last week of March, so the blog won't get updated until I return.

Watching for more rain

Halfway through the week and we are gearing up for some March Madness in Kansas weather - more RAIN! Our spring is off to a wet start and that's not going to change any time soon. We are stuck a rut, I guess you could say.

Next rain chances come at us in waves:
Chances for rain have been pushed back in timing, so it's all going to start a little later than previously thought earlier in the week.

Western KS - rain chance Friday afternoon/evening

The initial rain will be light (mainly showers) and amounts likely .10-.20". However, the showers will pick up a bit into Friday night as they begin moving east. We don't expect any severe weather from this, but a few thunderstorms may be mixed in from time to time.

Central KS - Saturday morning

A few showers will be pushing through at the beginning of the day, but I doubt they last very long. And once we arrive into Saturday afternoon, I think we are left with some clouds, but most of the wet weather will have moved on to the east. Rain amounts: generally 0.25" or less

Sunday - Monday chances:

A low pressure system - not a bomb cyclone - will be spinning over the Plains, and this sets us up for... more rain! And the rain we get later in the weekend will be heavier than what we get to start the weekend. Showers (and some thunder) should develop and move to the southeast. Many areas will get a good soaking of rain through Monday too. If you get a chance to look at radar, you'll see most of it wrapping around the low as it crosses southwest Kansas and into Oklahoma. There's a good chance we could see widespread .50-1" during this time frame.

Here we go again... Rain!

I had a chance to venture home this past weekend and saw first hand how wet many areas continue to be. There's so much standing water in so many places that even 2 or 3 weeks of dry weather may not be enough.

In the last 60 days, areas just north of Kansas are 2-4" above normal on moisture, combined with melting snow and a serious dam failure, it's an unfortunate mess in Nebraska.

Tuesday rain chance:

Compared to some of the rainy setups we've seen lately, this one will be a dud. A few showers will skirt across central and northern Kansas Tuesday morning and into the afternoon, but the amounts will be minimal. In most cases, the rainfall will add up to less than .10", but slightly higher amounts may fall in far northeast Kansas.

Late week storm:

After a couple of dry days Wednesday and Thursday, we will watch another system coming into the area for the end of the week. This low pressure system should come through the southwest (like so many others lately) and begin to develop rain showers as soon as Friday morning. The wet weather will keep pushing east Friday evening. We are still several days out, but early signs point toward .25-.50", which might look like a 2 inch rain when you consider how saturated the ground is.

Rainfall update & look at what's ahead

We made it!! Bomb cyclone is done and we are all setup for a great weekend. So I'll keep it short for today. So much nice weather to focus on heading through the weekend and much of next week. I don't recall such a great stretch of weather in months, so hopefully we can all find some time to enjoy it. 

First, a checkup on where we stand with moisture since December 1st. I decided to look at the numbers from the beginning of "meteorological" winter, which runs December 1st through February 28. And since the wet/snowy weather has just continued on, I thought I'd share the numbers through today.

As expected, much of the state is doing just fine in terms of moisture. So much of central and northern Kansas is well above normal on snowfall. Farther south, we haven't had all the snow, but we've had so many wet storms. 

Next week (week of March 18) - much of the week looks calmer across the Plains. We will have to watch another low pressure system that will move through southwest. It should reach Kansas by Friday night or Saturday (March 23) that could lead to some rain or thunder. Initially, it does NOT look like it will be a huge soaking for Kansas. However, we will have to study it over time and see how much Gulf of Mexico moisture it can latch on to before it arrives.

Have a GREAT weekend everyone!!

Rainfall reports & is there such thing as a "bomb" cyclone?

Total rainfall from the last couple of days (through 7 a.m. Wednesday):

Winfield: 1.73"

Wichita: 1.45"

Medicine Lodge: 1.26"

Jabara airport: 1.02"

Newton: 0.93"

Liberal: 0.82"

Hutchinson: 0.62"

Dodge City: 0.57"

Garden City: 0.48"

Great Bend: 0.42"

Hays: 0.25"

Goodland: 0.22"

Russell: 0.18"

Smith Center: 0.15"

What is a "bomb" cyclone?

This area of low pressure is reaching it's peak strength in western Kansas. The lowest barometer reading will likely take place around Sharon Springs or somewhere just southeast of Goodland. According to the record books, the lowest recorded barometric pressure in our state is 28.69" in Dodge City on April 8, 1878. The lowest pressure in Wichita was 28.71" back in 1960. 

Remember, barometric pressure is the weight of the air above a particular location. When it drops, it usually signals a change in weather. 

At 2 p.m. today - the center of the storm should be into western Kansas.

A bomb cyclone is a storm (or low pressure) that strengthens RAPIDLY. If the pressure falls by 24 millibars or more in 24 hours, it can be called a "bomb". Low pressure systems don't normally reach their peak strength in Kansas - usually this happens much farther north. That's why what's happening today is somewhat unusual. 

By 8 p.m. tonight, the area of low pressure is already starting to weaken - pressures rising in the center. It should be moving into Nebraska early Thursday.

So why aren't we getting severe thunderstorms? - The setup isn't favorable for that because temperatures are a bit too cool, at least in Kansas anyway. Some stronger thunderstorms were reported in Texas last night and could happen again today over Arkansas and in the South. It is very possible to get severe thunderstorms and some tornadoes with this kind of low pressure, but given the overall setup, we aren't seeing that today.

Dangerous winds -  This is probably the biggest headache with the "bomb" cyclone we are seeing today. Wind gusts of over 60 mph will be possible during the afternoon and will likely continue into Thursday too. So even though the "bomb" cyclone pulls away from Kansas tonight, the influence of such a LARGE scale storm will be felt at least into Friday. 

Try not to blow away in the next few days. Stay safe out there.

How strong will this storm be?

Good Monday! I started seeing last night on Facebook and Twitter that people are concerned about this "deep" and "strong" low pressure coming in. In fact one post claims it's the lowest pressure in 40s years for Kansas. What does this mean? Are we about to have tornadoes and severe weather?

If you are someone sensitive to changes in the weather, you might be feeling more pain the next couple of days. Joint pain, aches, and perhaps even migraines might be something triggered by this approaching system. The atmospheric pressure in this storm does get very low (which means a stronger storm & more wind), but look how it compares to major US hurricanes. Below are some of the lowest pressures recorded with hurricanes in the United States (they are obviously still so much lower than what Kansas will be seeing):

We don't expect there to be severe storms in the coming days. We do, however, expect there to be an abundance of wind & perhaps even some sporadic power outages. Wind gusts of close to 60 may not be too far out of line given how intense this storm system will be. AND there will be some heavy rainfall moving west to east. Most of the Plains will get about an inch of rain (or more) by the time the storm departs Wednesday night.

Timing of the rain:

Most of what we will get Monday night and Tuesday will be showers - off and on but not all that heavy.

Heading into Tuesday night-Wednesday: This is when the storm system will be gaining strength and moving into the Plains. Heaviest rains should fall from Wednesday morning into the early afternoon.

Wintry side: Although limited, there will be a wintry side to this storm. It's looking like far northwest Kansas could see some 2-5" amounts of snow. It will be even heavier (and perhaps an all out blizzard) for some of Colorado, Wyoming, and western Nebraska.

Stick with us this week as we track this large scale storm. The impacts will be felt all week (by Thursday and Friday it will still be the wind, but the rain will be long over with)

Severe weather this spring - what to watch

As always, thanks for spending a few minutes reading the blog. Our first week of March is in the books and it's been a wild ride so far. Record cold, snow, dangerous wind chills, and then some tornadoes in the southeast US.

Kansas is running about 20-30° below average (thanks to the REALLY cold weather we had at the beginning of the week)

Severe weather thoughts right now:

We had an EF4 tornado hit in Alabama last weekend and now we are seeing TWO more severe setups in the coming days. One setup will come Saturday east of Kansas and another early next week off to our south. Is this a sign of a bad tornado season coming up?

As I've said before, we don't really know how bad the season will be OR how many tornadoes Kansas will have. The science isn't quite there yet. We can look for patterns and trends, but how strong tornadoes are going to be isn't something we can predict.

I still feel like our severe weather season will be slow to start this year because our temperatures remain so cool. When the cooler than normal weather goes all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico (see the images above), you would typically expect few severe weather events. So the cool weather that continues to overwhelm the Plains should keep our tornadoes and hailstorms at bay for awhile. If the reverse were to happen (warmer than normal in the south - cooler to the north), there would be that chance of having more severe events.

Another factor that would argue against having a very busy storm season: El Nino!!

The El Nino is weak right now, but research has shown that during El Nino events, tornado and hail storms tend to be LESS frequent. Now that may not necessarily be the case for every El Nino event, but it does give us something to consider as we move forward.

I do expect the wet weather in Kansas will continue through spring, so we won't have any shortage of green when the temperatures finally warm!

Some heavy rainfall arriving Tuesday/Wednesday:
A quick look at forecast rainfall next week shows much of the Plains could be in for 1-2 inches of rain beginning Tuesday and continuing through at least Wednesday morning.

How much rain/how much snow?

An update on TWO storms that will plow toward Kansas in the coming days. We've had so many of them lately and it's not over with yet.

First storm - Friday night/early Saturday:
This system will be racing right across Kansas, so given it's limited time in our area, rainfall amounts won't be much at all. In fact, the areas that do get rain should receive less than .25" (and might be closer to .10")

Severe Threat - Saturday:

Any possibility of hail and wind should get east rapidly, but there will be a fairly large area that could see strong-severe storms by Saturday afternoon across Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, and into the deep South.

Early next week - Tuesday/Wednesday:

This large scale storm will come through the desert Southwest, producing widespread rains and snows. It has so much potential of producing heavy rainfall because of the connection to the Gulf of Mexico. And there will be some thunderstorms too. Kansas shouldn't see any severe weather, but some rumbles will likely be heard over the area.

I find it very interesting in what feels like a relentless winter that we aren't focusing more on the snow potential. It looks like 98% of what this storm will drop over Kansas will be rain and NOT snow. That being said, there might be a few areas in Kansas where the rain mixes with or changes to snow, but figuring out where that will be is near impossible right now. Once this storm forms and moves into the US, we will learn more about it as it begins to approach us.

Have a terrific day!

Severe weather awareness - 2 LARGE storms on the way

Severe weather awareness week continues in Kansas and tornado sirens will sound statewide today (Tuesday) at 10 a.m. It is so easy to think "oh, I already know what to do", but a few minutes to review and make a list of the smaller things that are easily overlooked can go a long way. For instance, if you had 5 minutes to take shelter, would you know which medications to grab? Would you have some bottled water handy in the event you loose everything? Do you have a way of getting information in your storm shelter with battery backup? It never hurts to review the plan and have a safety kit.

Two storms on the horizon - both could have loads of moisture to work with

Friday - Saturday (next storm approaches)

This system will be coming from the southwest (AGAIN) and should arrive on the weekend. Isn't it interesting how our storms this winter have mainly been on the weekends? As this system approaches, it will be encountering temperatures in the 40s, which should be warm enough for rain AND thunder (especially in south central and eastern Kansas). These thunderstorms won't be severe storms, but the setup is there to hear thunder.

The areas that will get the rain should mainly be in the eastern half of Kansas. It does NOT look like a ton of rain for our area, but some places may pick up about .25" before it all shifts east by Saturday afternoon.

Storm arriving next week (around Tuesday):

This system also looks to be loaded with moisture. Several models are hinting at 1.5 to 2 inches of rain (or more in some areas), so we have to keep an eye on the setup. The Gulf of Mexico is opening up and if things come together as the models are suggesting, we could be inundated with rain. It looks like it will be warm enough that most of Kansas won't have to worry about snow, but there will be a wintry side of the storm that might impact a few areas. What has been a stormy winter for Kansas and the Plains should continue right through spring.

Temperatures still look chillier than normal:
We continue to see colder than normal weather through mid-March. This would suggest more days with highs in the 30s and 40s than anything else.

Weekend storm & March outlook

The weekend storm is still on the way and most of Kansas will get snow this weekend. We don't have many changes to make to the forecast; it's still going to be cold and we are still getting snow.

Our latest thoughts on snowfall for Saturday night/early Sunday:

And dangerous wind chills will follow the snowfall. Just look at Sunday & Monday numbers:

March outlook:
I know this won't make very many happy, but March looks cold. Every single map I'll share with you in this post suggests Kansas is in for below normal temperatures for almost the entire month. Now, keep in mind that later in March, average highs will jump to near 60. So when we say "below normal", that will likely be a forecast of 40s and 50s... not teens and 20s. But it's still hard to swallow when most are ready for the nice, sunny spring days. And there's no sign the wet & stormy pattern will ease. Even if it does give us a break, it's likely only to be 10-12 days at most.

So here's the breakdown:
March 3-8

March 8-13

March 13-18

March 23-28

Moisture - March 8-13

Moisture - March 23-28