February outlook

I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing that most of you reading this will be doing so ahead of a VERY warm weekend. My guess is that by Sunday, we will have to pinch ourselves as a reminder that it is February (or maybe you are pinching yourselves because the Chiefs are in the Super Bowl). We aren't supposed to be getting highs around 70 in early February, but I doubt anybody will be all that upset about it. It does mean one less day in the winter season with gloomy skies and bitter cold. That comes next week.

Record Watch:
First, let's look again at the record watch that is on for Sunday. Highs reaching 70 puts us more than 20° above normal.

The month is NOT going to stay that way however. February looks cold to say the least. Just take a look at the following maps and you'll see exactly what we are sorting through. Much of the data suggests colder than normal weather. The coldest temperatures may come in the first half of the month.

Temperatures in the first week of February will be colder than normal: A strong front will come through Monday and much of the week looks VERY chilly. And we will get some snow coming across the Plains too by Monday night/Tuesday. Shouldn't be all that heavy, and given our much colder air, it's likely to be a drier snowfall.

Moving toward mid-February: Computer models are aggressive on the cold air. I think we will still be below normal (which is mid 40s), but maybe not quite AS cold as what is shown below. Bottom line - don't expect early spring in February this year.

Late February: still pretty chilly, but temperatures should be on their way up later in the month.

Precipitation:

Tough call here, but for now the first half of February looks drier than what we've had in January. Something may spring up later in February, but for now I don't see any hard evidence that February is going to be that wet/snowy around the Plains.

What in the world is this...

Our forecast for the end of this week is pretty strange when you get down to it. It has felt weird the last couple of days forecasting 70 degree weather, knowing that we are only turning the calendar into February.

However, look at some of these stats I dug up. Even if we get to 70° this weekend, it won't break the record for "earliest 70 of the year". Most of the state has had 70s in early January before, so it's not unheard of to see them in early February. 

But the pattern is about to completely get wild on us with respect to temperatures. It's going to be ridiculously warm this weekend, followed by an almost as dramatic DROP coming next week with Arctic air plunging south. 

Kansas and many surrounding areas will be well above normal. Just look at the map below and all of that red indicates the above normal weather. Dark shades of red are temperatures that will be nearly 20° above normal, which will spread all the way into southern Canada. Or is that just Chiefs red we are seeing?  :-)

Weekend - near record highs Sunday:

Just look at some of the numbers we will be challenging as we head toward the end of the weekend. 

ARCTIC AIR WATCH - next week:

A strong front will be surging through Monday afternoon and into the night. Following the front, temperatures will take a nose dive and highs will slip back to the 20s and 30s. That means, we will go back below normal for early February. It's way too early to speculate on snow amounts or exact locations, but there's a chance for some snow to return to northern Kansas by Tuesday. When air gets as cold as it will be next week, there won't be near as much moisture content to the snow. But we will continue to see how all of this comes together AFTER an amazing weekend coming up.

Next round of winter - here we go!

We will finish off January with another round of winter weather... rain and snow will be coming through Kansas tonight (Mon. night) and Tuesday. Here's what we are confident with in this forecast:

• No ice accumulations
• No dangerous wind chills
• Looks to be a rain turning to snow setup
• Heaviest snows should go from southwest Kansas into south central areas Tuesday

The storm track is key for this event. Farther north track would push even more snow across the state, while shifting farther south would take heaviest snow into Oklahoma. We expect this storm to go from around Amarillo out across the Red River Valley Tuesday afternoon. Given that, here are some snapshots of timing for this storm.

Begins Monday night in western Kansas as a rain/snow setup:

It should get cold enough fairly quickly to bring most of the rain over to snow shortly after midnight (if not before). 

Around daybreak Tuesday, it should be snowing pretty heavily in southwest Kansas too.

These will likely be big, wet flakes coming down that could accumulate pretty quickly. Roads will be slushy or snowpacked in spots, but temperatures won't be that far from freezing, but we really need to watch elevated surfaces and roads left untreated.

Heavier snows through south central Kansas Tuesday afternoon.

Messy conditions will be a concern for afternoon and evening drive time around Wichita and south central Kansas. It will be snowing, with some occasional rain mixed in. Please plan to give yourself extra time Tuesday. These conditions aren't impossible to drive in, but it won't be smooth sailing either.

I-70 will have some snowpacked spots too, especially in northwest Kansas early Tuesday. I don't think the rest of the interstate will be that bad, and we certainly don't expect it to shut down at all during this storm (barring some unforeseen accident)

And then signs of spring?? - That's right, Super Bowl Sunday could be up in the 60s! Might be worth thinking about an outdoor watch party. =)

Have a great day.

Are we headed for drier days & what's that in the southwest?

Hope everyone has a great weekend a chance to enjoy some sunshine if you've been missing it the last 3 days. The slushy snow, cold grey skies start to get old after awhile, but we are fortunate to have the precipitation. My guess is that there are several areas in southwest Kansas that would like to have some of what we've had farther east.

Look at this map - it takes into account melted snow and rain that we've had lately. It shows the departure from normal. So much of central and eastern Kansas is doing pretty good, especially by January standards. The areas in dark green and light blue are above average for January.

Are we moving into a drier pattern?
It is starting to look that way, or at least certainly not as wet as some areas have been the last few weeks. There are some storms coming out of the west during our final week in January. However, in recent days it is looking like most of the moisture will slide to our south. The map below shows rainfall for the next 8 days and I'm expect most of it will end up in Texas or Oklahoma. Southwest Kansas may get some beneficial moisture Monday night/early Tuesday, but it won't end the drought.

At the beginning of February, I think we will see a decent ridge of high pressure setting up across the southwest. This will be significant for Kansas because it will end the parade of storms that have been coming from the west. And it may also lead to a period of warmer days (before it turns cold again)

What's in the sky this weekend?

Check it out... if you look to the southwest sky, you should be able to spot Venus, and Mercury will be lower in the sky. But those will be your two planets to seek out over the weekend.

Split decisions today - more rain/snow next week

A bit of a break from winter is coming as we slide into the final weekend in January. Let that sink in for a moment. Our first month of 2020 is almost over and we've had some interesting weather this month. There's still some active weather coming up yet today (mainly east) and then our final, January wave of rain and snow on the way middle of next week.

What's happening today:

We are on the backside of the rain/snow/slush maker from yesterday and still looking at some chances for moisture along and east of I-135. There could be some messy roads across eastern Kansas (I-70 and the Turnpike included), but temperatures will once again be above freezing so it shouldn't be that bad if you give yourself extra commuting time.

Early this evening, there will be some snow mixing with the rain (before it finally comes to an end), and some slushy 1-2 inch amounts aren't completely out of the question. Temperatures will all be ABOVE freezing, so this should be more slush rather than ice.

By 10 or 11 p.m. tonight (Thursday), we should see most, if not all, of the active weather to our east and getting out of here quickly.

Friday/Saturday/Sunday: all looking pretty good. We will still have some chilly weather to start the weekend, but by Sunday, it's going to be feeling much better with warming temperatures into the 50s. 

Storm next week- Looking at the potential setup, it looks like a rain setup on Tuesday, then turning to snow by Wednesday. The storm hasn't formed yet and there will be adjustments in the models before we actually get to the event, BUT... I don't see this as a major storm at all.

• NO Arctic Air
• NO blizzard
• NO ice storm

We will spend the next few days studying the possible track AND intensity, but we still have several questions. 

Early signs for February: 

The month looks to start out with above normal temperatures, but it may not stay that way. Like January, it could be a split month with warmer than normal temperatures, then flipping to colder as the month continues. The bottom map shows what may happen around or after Valentine's Day. Much colder air may invade the eastern two-thirds of the US. Oh, and then there's the Groundhog's prediction too. (insert eye roll here) - Ha.

More rain & snow - very active pattern ahead

We have less than 60 days to the Vernal Equinox (Spring!!), but there's still a lot of winter left to go yet. And when you see some of the rough weather they had late last week in the Dakotas and upper Midwest, we've actually been pretty lucky so far.

This is where we stand on snowfall for the season - everybody is BELOW normal, but one good snow event could wipe out that deficit. 

The storm arriving today (Tuesday) and lingering into Wednesday isn't a major storm. Temperatures won't be that cold and some of the snow will melt as it falls. We should be close to freezing, which means the snow will be pretty wet. I should point out that heavy, wet snows CAN pile up fast (especially in grassy areas), but our forecast of 1-3" should hold up pretty well for much of the area.  Some places could get a little bit more if it snows long enough.

If you add up the rain and melt down the snow, moisture for Kansas should look like this: 

Behind this batch of winter comes some milder weather. I think we could see a couple of days with 50s/60s by Sunday. And it should carryover into Monday as well.

Next week, signs of another storm. It's tough to say a week out if it will be anything more than a rain/snow chance, but it sure doesn't look like a blizzard or an ice storm at this point in time. However, the storm train from the west should continue to close out the month.

Later this week, we will start looking into February, but my expectation is that it's going to be a cold month for much of the area.

Winter storm update - thunderstorms too

It's not uncommon in March to have severe storms and winter storm happening simultaneously, but in JANUARY? It's a little early madness for us in Kansas, but here we go. The storm is energizing and about to push through this area.

Snowfall Forecast: This hasn't changed much since we released it Wednesday. We still expect western Kansas to see some 1 to possibly 3 inch amounts (the 3s will be much more isolated). Heavier snow for south central and eastern Kansas comes Saturday morning.

How this storm will evolve?

It begins with some strong storms in south central Kansas. Some hail will be the biggest threat with the storms that form and move to the northeast. The threat of hail won't be around very long (maybe 2 or 3 hours) and then they will weaken.

Slick roads expected across central and western Kansas: This could begin as early as 2 or 3 pm Friday. The colder air will continue to drive south and after 8 or 9 p.m., conditions in south central Kansas will begin to deteriorate.

Snow will increase in south central Kansas into Saturday morning and continue to move up the turnpike. My expectation is that the snow will end from southwest to northeast by early Saturday afternoon. And then the sun may come out later in the afternoon. So if you have to travel across eastern Kansas, Saturday (late) evening might be better than first thing in the morning.

Ice accumulation will NOT be enough to bring down power lines or tree branches, but we do expect a thin glaze to go down underneath the snow that's forecast for central and south central Kansas.

Please have a safe weekend if you are getting out on the roads.

Winter Weather Update - rain and snow still on the way

Just some quick thoughts here on the approaching system for Friday/Saturday. This still does NOT look to be a big snow maker for Kansas, but timing of the snow may have you changing some of your weekend plans. We do need this moisture, especially in western Kansas. But when you get down to it, most of us will get actual liquid moisture that's under .25"

Friday snow - this is mainly going to be in far northern Kansas and across the west. Some 1-3" totals look possible by early Friday evening as round #1 of the snow comes to an end. Central and eastern Kansas should be getting light rain (perhaps even some thunder in southeast Kansas)

Friday night - a bit of a lull is expected in the storm. Western Kansas will be all finished with the snow shortly after dark. Areas farther south and east will still be waiting on the snow.

Saturday - the storm moves into a more organized and mature stage. This means another wave of snow will intensify from OKC up through south central and across eastern Kansas. Snowfall amounts will be a little higher in these areas. South central Kansas looks to get 1-3", with southeast Kansas potentially getting 3-6"

Much colder air will be here for the weekend, so say goodbye to the January warmth for now.

Late week storm - where's our confidence now?

Thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up on what will be an active end to our week... AND colder too. We are overdue to see some January weather as lately, it has felt like spring.

Front arrives Thursday - no big change expected, but we should have less wind and more clouds. Temperatures however, will still be in the 50s for much of the state.

Friday storm - We are still at low confidence on how this storm will play out, but by Thursday, we should have a pretty good idea of what's going to take place.

Rain & snow chances - what goes where?

It looks like west of a Dodge City to Hays line, moisture on Friday will be in the form of snow. Heavy snow (greater than 5/6" appears very unlikely), but chances increase nonetheless from mid-late morning. The rain isn't going to be all that heavy in central or eastern Kansas, but drizzle or a few hours of some light showers will develop heading into Friday afternoon. The BIG time rainfall will go well east of here across Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma.

Severe weather develops southeast of Kansas! 

You will likely hear about this in national news updates, but potential strong storms and even some tornadoes are targeting areas in Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, and southeast Missouri. So this will be quite a potent batch of weather coming through Friday - Saturday.

Snow Saturday morning:

The back edge of the system will be wrapping up early Saturday, so weekend travel plans around the state shouldn't be all that treacherous. We might have some snowpacked areas Saturday morning for awhile, but once the sun comes out, our roads should improve quickly.

Arctic air lining up for next week:
The week won't start out bitterly cold, but it sure pushes in by the middle of the week. Right now, we have the front coming in late Tuesday, so watch for a huge drop in temperatures by Wednesday on. This will be something that sticks around for awhile. Get ready for January to setup camp in the Plains.

We hope to be able to put out a snowfall forecast maybe later today (Wednesday) so watch for that on the air for 5, 6, 9, and 10. Have a great day.