January outlook - are we ready for the cold?

I want to wish you a Happy New Year - and thank you for trusting us another year with forecasts and information that is hopefully helpful to you in your life and line of work.

December has been a warm month!

This month is currently on track to be 15th warmest on record for south central Kansas. Much of the state has had a decent stretch of mild weather and certainly the 60° weather (like on Christmas Day) helped to push us into the top 20. The map below shows the average temperatures for the entire US - and it's been quite warm except in the southwest.

We thought December had a good chance of being warmer than normal, but I'm cautioning you that January, February, and even March look colder (February AND March could be MUCH colder). It won't be an instant flip, but I think in the next 2-4 weeks, we are going to start seeing stronger fronts coming south and more threats of Arctic air.

What's normal:

January should start near to above normal:

Later in the month, we will see if that much colder air farther north continues to push south like we are anticipating. Models are hinting that may happen.

Precipitation: January isn't normally a month where we get very much precipitation. I don't think we will be completely left out of the rain/snow chances, but I also don't see it being a month with above normal moisture. It looks like we have a good chance of ending up "near normal", which for much of the state would be .50-1" for the entire 31 day period. Already our first system of 2020 will arrive Thursday/Friday, but it will have limited amounts of rain/snow with it. The map below is a forecast through January 15th, which shows much of Kansas getting up to .50" (most of which will likely happen with the system coming through Thursday/Friday)

Have a Happy New Year and thanks for spending a few minutes here.

The storm arrives - rain, snow, & ice (briefly)

Please be safe out there on the roads. I know we are all rushing around in our post Christmas travel and some of you may still be trying to get somewhere to see family and friends. The roads aren't going to be that bad in Kansas, but areas west of us could be a mess. Extra travel time will be needed if going into Colorado, Nebraska, or farther north.

Western Kansas:

Any icy weather should improve getting into Friday afternoon. The temperatures won't necessarily be "warm", but should get back above freezing to alleviate the potential of ice accumulation and/or power outages. However, this isn't helpful for anyone trying to get through that area and I-70 will likely have some issues, especially west of Goodland or Colby.

Friday night-Saturday:

This should mainly be rain as temperatures continue to warm a bit. So roads are NOT likely to be a big issue during this time. This is also when some of the heavier rain will fall for our area.

Saturday:

Mainly rain for the area, but a great deal of focus will continue to be on northwest Kansas where a changeover to snow is LIKELY by mid to late afternoon (or sooner). The snow will continue to come down Saturday night in the northwest and 4-8" of snow look likely. Totals should drop off rather quickly once you get south of I-70, so I doubt there will be any snow to shovel in places like Dodge City, Great Bend, Salina, Hutch, or Wichita.

Sunday - Storm comes to an end, but wind and MUCH colder weather will be with us and wind chills will be down in the teens and 20s.

The rainfall will be welcome by many! Don't focus too much on the exact numbers listed for each location. 

The takeaway from this map is that the rain WILL be widespread and much of the state could get an inch (or more) or much needed moisture. 

Storm moving in - rain and snow likely

Hope you had a terrific Christmas and what a day ... with 60° weather all over the place. It was a record setting day for a few areas, with other records tied or at least threatened.

Chilly weather is now here and soon, the rain will be moving in. This is a VERY tricky storm because temperatures are going to be right on the borderline (in western Kansas) for rain/snow. Other areas may have a few hours of some icy weather early Friday before it warms up enough to just be a rain event. Early travel Friday may not be 100% in-the-clear as temperatures continue to drop ahead of the rain.

Here's what temperatures may look like at 6 a.m. Friday:

Even IF we have below freezing temperatures early Friday, as the heavier rain sets in, it will be warming up. Far western Kansas may have several hours of wintry weather early Friday, but the afternoon should be back above freezing and road conditions should be just wet.

Friday P.M.:

Just look how widespread the rain should be once we get to the afternoon. And this is just the beginning. More rain should move through the area later Friday night and early Saturday.

Saturday: Most of the heavier rains are going to come in the morning and then push on to the northeast toward Missouri and Iowa.

Rain will switch to snow, but snow amounts probably won't be that heavy in Kansas. If you DO have travel plans into Colorado or Nebraska on Saturday, you will run into snow and slick roads. So plan accordingly. It could be mess on I-80 and I-90 up in South Dakota. Several places in western Nebraska could see close to a foot of snow by Saturday night.

How much snow? 

There will still be some changes to our map, but it is looking like northwest Kansas could see up to 3 or 4 inches of snow on Saturday, while the rest of the state shouldn't get that much. However... generous rainfall is expected for southwest, central and eastern Kansas.

Next week looks chilly, but from Sunday through New Years, the weather calms down a bit.

A Christmas storm - a few days late

While the travel weather looks good the next few days, we are anticipating a late week storm that could be considered a late Christmas present from Mother Nature. We've been seeing this on the computer models for days, but we haven't been 100% sure on timing and whether or not this would be a rain or snow event.

The active weather today (Tuesday) will be in the southwest part of the country. Every other place in the US should be in good shape. Typically when storms come through the southwest at this time of year, they are a problem for us in Kansas. However, this initial system is one we really need to be that concerned with.

Here's the map for 4 p.m. today:

4 p.m. Christmas Day looks like this:

So rain chances won't be anything to consider through Thursday. Travel weather on Thursday looks just fine for most of our immediate area.

However, later this week as our next big storm rounds through the Four Corners area, the Gulf of Mexico moisture pushes north rather quickly. This is perfect setup for Kansas to get a good soaking. If it were colder, we could have tremendous snows (likely record setting) - but cold air appears to be lacking in a big way.
Just look at Friday afternoon when the rain begins in some areas, much of the state is still looking at 40s and 50s.

Most of the rain will fall Friday night - Saturday mid afternoon -a change to snow should happen in central or western Kansas, but that doesn't take place until the precipitation is already shutting down. So I'm not convinced we will get that much snow out of this storm.

By the time we reach the end of this storm, many areas could be in for 1-2 inches of rain. This will deliver a setback to the ongoing drought, BUT it doesn't end it. That takes repeated rains, something that is extremely hard to come by in wintertime. 

It will be colder though by Sunday and Monday. A return to December weather should take place by Saturday night/Sunday/Monday.

Unsettled weather Christmas week

There isn't much time left to get that Christmas shopping done. Have you even started? That thought has to be a bit scary when you know the shipping deadlines are here and then there's a chance stormy weather could delay the arrival of packages.

Travel weather leading up to Christmas looks good...
We are going to be moving back into an unsettled pattern through the holiday and the weekend after. However, Monday and Tuesday look like pretty good days to get around Kansas and surrounding areas. There's a big storm that will be inundating the West coast with rain and snow over the weekend. Timing of this system will be figured out soon, but it will be moving toward the Plains for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.

Look at the temperatures it will be running into. Much of the state will continue to be above normal, so don't get too excited for a snow chance. There might be a few flakes of snow mixing in with the rain across far northwest Kansas, but even then, chances look pretty slim for that to take place. A preview of temperatures on Christmas Eve suggests that we are still too warm for snow.

Christmas Day - Temperatures begin cooling down, but not drastically. Normal high is 42° and we start trending back closer to that by Wednesday.

Even more active weather AFTER Christmas

Just want to give you a heads up to a potent storm that will be coming through the area during the weekend after Christmas. If you plan to be on the roads, this is a storm that could have widespread rain OR snow and big impacts. We are pretty certain there WILL be a storm, but (like we've discussed already), details of track, timing, and the rain-snow line is next to impossible to nail down this far out.

I'm working much of Christmas week and will be updating the blog, so be sure to check back, especially if you are planning any amount of travel after Christmas Day. Should be interesting.

December tornadoes in Kansas and the US

Making national headlines lately are the December tornadoes that went through Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Most of the tornadoes have been rated EF-2, but one tornado in northern Louisiana could be upgraded to EF-3 after further investigation into one of the structures that was hit. Tornado winds of EF-3 range from 136-165 mph.

December tornadoes aren't unheard of, especially farther south where temperatures are warmer and the jet stream is still quite active. Look at the map below. According to the average (taken from 1989-2013), Missouri, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Alabama (just to name a few) can be hit by late season tornadoes. Texas averages 4 in December, while Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi average 3.

December tornadoes in Kansas:
We've seen them as recent as three years ago. Christmas Day - 2016 saw some rare tornadoes touch down in southwest Kansas. They were part of a squall line that produced very brief tornadoes (on the ground just long enough to tear up a few things). Pictures posted below are courtesy of National Weather Service Dodge City.

Near Kismet

Near Ensign

Near Bucklin

Around the United States, about 1,300 tornadoes touch down each year. We are currently on track to finish the year with an ABOVE normal count on tornadoes (the actual number will change), but it looks like it will be closer to 1,600. You can see in the image below, the red line indicates tornado count for 2019, while the black line is considered "average" to this point in the year.

Snow ends with a big change in the pattern this week

Hope you had a great weekend and the weather this week (although starting out cold and snowy) will be taking a turn for the warmer. It's going to be a remarkable change toward the end of the week.

First - what's left of this current storm will be on the way out of the Plains soon. It will race to the east and cause more travel headaches for the upper Midwest and the east coast. Just look where the messy weather is around 5 p.m. today (Monday):

The snowfall hasn't been enough to end the snow drought that hangs over south central Kansas. Our last 2"+ snow was just back in March, but the last 3"+ snow event was in 2016 for Wichita (and most of us would probably agree that a 3" snow event isn't necessarily a BIG snow). There's still plenty of time to see more snow, but for now, things are beginning to wind down.

How does the weather change later this week?

We are still seeing an active setup for several days to come, but nothing that we need to flag as being a potential problem between now and Christmas. Another system will move toward the central and southern Plains late in the week, but it doesn't look impressive at all. Rain chances will slide southeast of Kansas. The image below shows rain chances into Friday down in Arkansas and Louisiana, but no impact on Kansas.

What happens to our chances of a white Christmas? 

They pretty much go to zero after the snow melts by the end of the week. Even the areas that have 5-9" of snow, Christmas is just too far down the road to try and keep what's on the ground around until the 25th. Just look at the overall temperature setup between now and Christmas Day:

A HUGE ridge of high pressure will push into the area by the weekend. A setup like this could yield some 70 degree weather before we get to Christmas. It's looking VERY warm for December and that's what will keep us from having a nice blanket of snow around here for Santa's arrival.

Forecast changes a bit - still snow & some ice

The forecast continues to come into better alignment as time gets closer, and we are still on track to have some wintry weather in Kansas by Sunday evening. 

What's changed? 

Snow amounts will be light (under 5 inches) for much of the area, but there are some concerns of ice that may develop in south central and southeast Kansas. THIS WON'T BE AN ICE STORM, but a little glaze Sunday night could lead to some issues by Monday morning. The area we are looking at is mainly southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. 

As we pointed out earlier in the week, storms that come straight in from the west and right over the Rockies usually don't produce big amounts of precipitation. They MUST dig farther south into the desert Southwest, and then move northeast. A path like this taps into the Gulf of Mexico. This one won't do that and hasn't shown signs of it in recent days. 

Here's where the storm is as of Friday morning - it's still up in the Gulf of Alaska. 

It will come racing into the US on Saturday, to help produce some snows in the Rockies and off to the west. Several inches of snow are expected in Colorado and I70 could be a mess west of Denver.

Saturday:

Much of the snow will be west - Colorado and Wyoming are set to get several inches

Sunday:

Light snow develops across the west and in central/north central Kansas too. Snow amounts aren't going to be huge, but a few inches certainly looks possible heading into Sunday night/early Monday.

Although it will still be cold for Monday and Tuesday, the weather is expected to calm down a bit through the middle of the week. Have a great weekend and be safe out there on the roads. 

Weekend system AND discussion of white Christmas

Snow chances are still on track for part of the weekend. The last thing I want anyone to do is cancel their weekend trip, anticipating a big snow storm. This storm is NOT likely to be a big snow event, given that we expect it to approach us straight from the west. If it were to dive a bit farther south, it could produce more snow, but that doesn't seem to be (for right now) a possibility.

I'm still leaning toward most of the state getting at least SOME snow, but again, amounts are very tricky this many days ahead of the event. Take a look at where the storm is now (as of Thursday morning) and it is still WAY out in the Pacific.

That's why our confidence is still quite low leading up to this event.

TIMING:
Although there could be some brief light snow on Saturday, MOST of the snow will come Sunday afternoon and into the night. That's when we should begin to see snow pile up and it very well could have some schools closing or delaying Monday morning. So heads up.

Snow will start in western Kansas Sunday morning and gradually start moving east. This should mainly be snow (no freezing rain or sleet), but we still expect some of the roads to get slick into Sunday night. The drive to work Monday might be an issue too in spots.

We will start putting out some numbers before we get to the weekend, so stay tuned. I do feel confident in saying that almost all of Kansas will get snow, and it will stick in many areas. But if this storm track shifts by any amount, it's going to change the totals. So please be mindful when looking at forecast amounts this far out. There is a chance for some blowing snow early Monday, but this is not going to be a blizzard for Kansas.

White Christmas:

At 6 p.m. Wednesday, we put out our first prediction on whether or not there will be snow for Christmas. I see two more storms before Santa's arrival. The first one comes late this weekend, followed by another system that may not get here until right at Christmas. The snow we get Sunday/Monday will likely melt next week, but let's wait and see what storm #2 might do as we get in closer to the holiday. A white Christmas is NOT off the table yet, but remember they are rare and everything has to come together just right for that blanket of white that some of you are dreaming of.