July outlook - thoughts on the month ahead

Heading into the peak of summertime and July can be a punishing month if you aren't getting any rain and temperatures hit 100° day in-and-out. You might recall, that's a good summary of what played out last July when drought was expanding quickly throughout the central US. That's very unlikely to take place this year. 

Here are your July "normals" - expectations for temperatures and rainfall:

Early July:

The month will more than likely start off near or even cooler than average for our area. The "heat dome" is going to move back to Mexico and keep the hottest weather well south of Kansas. (see the image below)

While this occurs, several instances of scattered storms may develop throughout the region. It's possible we could get a pretty good portion of our average monthly rainfall right at the beginning of the month. Some of the models give some nice rainfall to the area right after the 4th of July holiday. 

Even though we escape the potential of really hot weather early on, it wouldn't be a surprise to see things heat up more significantly in mid-late July. 

Overall, it looks like a warmer than average month ahead - remember, this map below takes into account the warm nighttime temperatures as well as the afternoon highs. 

Rainfall:

We should get enough to keep easing drought conditions for a good part of the state. I won't promise we will be leaps and bounds better off than how the month starts, but it would appear that enough rain will be coming this way to keep us from burning up in summer heat and watching our grass dry up completely. Recharging ponds, lakes, and rivers still requires more rain than we might receive in July, but we can hope to keep crops moving in the right direction with timely rains. 

You see a similar idea in this map with forecast rainfall (compared to average) for July.

We will approach the month ahead cautiously optimistic about rainfall. It sure would be nice to keep the grass growing and the corn/milo/soybeans looking healthy too. 

Hope you have a good 4th of July.

Rapid start to hurricane season & monsoon update

Hurricane season is nearly a month old now and we've already had three named systems. Cindy is still out in the Atlantic with no threat to any major land areas. If the system does hold together and threaten any area, it definitely shouldn't be the United States. 

The Atlantic looks quiet next week (week of June 26-July 3), even though there does appear to be more activity coming off the African continent, conditions don't look favorable for development. Water temperatures, shown below, are incredibly warm (in many areas about 1°C above average). You may recall that warm water is one of the key ingredients in tropical formation, but 

Here's a preview of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday (June 29, 30, and July 1):

Even though some thunderstorms may form at different locations in the Atlantic or Carribean, they shouldn't turn into full-blown tropical storms.

Monsoon Update:

Monsoon refers to the "seasonal shift" in the winds. It typically gets underway in late June and holds on through July and even into August. This is the time of year the Southwest gets their best rainfall and it's extremely important for agriculture in that part of the country. 

Looking ahead, monsoon moisture is not there yet. The high pressure that sets up in Mexico is more likely to be over Texas (once again), and so the better chances of heavier rainfall will likely be from northern Kansas up into the northern Plains. 

Thanks for checking in.

Getting hotter, but still searching for rain in a summer pattern

Summer (officially) is about to get started, so you're not surprised that we're talking about heat. The solstice happens June 21st at 9:57AM, when the sun is directly overhead at the Tropic of Cancer (or about 23° latitude). This area of the country gets nearly 15 hours of daylight, and then of course, daylight decreases until the winter solstice. 

Texas has been getting smothered in extremely hot weather. Look at the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday:

We continue to be on the northern edge of that really intense heat, and it's not coming up here in the near future. What will be of interest is yet another California or West coast system that comes across the northern Rockies late in the week/weekend. It's going to drive a front across the Plains Saturday night. While it won't necessarily cool things off much, it keeps our temperatures in check and we'll see more seasonal late June weather over the weekend and early next week.

Our concern is that even though we have been able to keep the hotter weather suppressed to the southern Plains, that may be changing at the end of the month. Here's the outlook for late June and early July - the yellows and oranges all represent above average temperatures. The average highs in late June are low 90s, so if we end up even slightly warmer than that, it's going to be hot:

While dry weather might be to some advantage for wheat harvest, we certainly don't want the rains to stop like they did last July. You might recall that after the 4th of July holiday, everybody went dry and we couldn't buy a round of storms for the Plains. I recently shared some images showcasing what I thought would be near "average" rainfall for July and I still think that'll be the case. Here's a snapshot of the first 8 days in July (this is forecast rainfall) - not overly impressive, but the alternative is no rain at all.

And here's a look at July 8-15th - opportunity for rainfall might increase a bit after the 4th of July holiday. 

Bottom line - prepare for hotter weather (it's that time of year) and our chances for rain might be on hold for many areas until after the 4th. I still don't see this summer being as dry as last year. And I doubt it will be as hot either. 

Have a great day.

More summer thoughts on temperatures and rainfall

Some newer model information just came down with "hints" of what's to come as we move closer to the start of summer (June 21st at 9:57AM). As mentioned in the last few weeks, we are quickly transitioning into El Niño out in the Pacific, and that almost always results in different weather patterns for the Plains. Will it be in place soon enough to keep us from a scorching summer with little to no rain?

If you're interested in how the El Niño looks right now, take a look at this map:

Water temperatures are about .5°C above average near the equator. There's even warmer water just off the coast of South America, and if that keeps pushing westward, which is expected in the coming months, El Nino takes control for fall and the upcoming winter. The overall magnitude of the oncoming El Nino isn't very clear just yet.

If you take the models at face value, we should be able to avoid a summer like last year where there was no rain and several long stretches of big-time heat (highs near or above 100). I would expect drought will continue to ease, but doubt that we'll be able to erase it entirely. Filling lakes and farm ponds will take some good runoff, and I don't think we are close to that just yet. Drought is still so bad in many areas that getting out of this takes more time. 

Here's the preview of July (from the European model):

Rainfall:

Temperatures:

What the weather pattern may look like:

If the upper-level high pressure, which is a common occurrence in summertime, sets up across the desert Southwest, we may get thunderstorms to form off the higher terrain of Colorado and come down into Kansas. While not a guarantee, it's something we didn't see much of last summer and haven't for quite some time. Let's see if that holds up into July. It might be our key to having near normal rainfall - what some of the longer-range models suggest. 

For comparison, here's what the Canadian models have to say about July:

Rainfall:

Temperatures:

And August (from the European model):

And the Canadian model:

Since you're here - potential rainfall through June 15th could be quite beneficial for the Plains. Repeated rounds of storms coming up could leave behind an inch or more for several areas of Kansas. Heaviest may wind up in western Kansas, but even areas farther east could get some nice totals. Most of this may come Saturday (June 10) and again Tuesday (June 13).

Thanks for spending a few minutes here. Let's hope we keep the rain coming and the major heat waves away. 

June outlook - more rain coming?

May started off pretty typical, but safe to say the end of the month went a little wonky on us in the Plains. The peak of tornado season happens in May and it is usually a month chucked full of severe storm potential. The month started off that way, but quickly died in the last 10-12 days. What happened? 

When the upper-level winds dropped off around the 20th, the severe threat trailed off. We usually expect that to happen in mid-late June, but not in May. And what else is a little strange - where's the Kansas wind? The past few weeks we haven't experienced many (if any) windy days. That's also a direct result of no strong fronts or low-pressure systems coming through the area to crank up the wind. 

The end of May marks the end of meteorological spring. Since there are 12 months and 4 seasons, we can easily divide them up, so March 1-May 31st is considered spring. Wichita and Salina end up with a top ten driest. It's a little strange to see western Kansas with a little more rain than areas farther east, but it happens from time to time. 

Here's a map showing May rainfall and how it compared to average. All of the yellow and orange is at least 1" below, but most of central and eastern Kansas continues to be 2 or 3 inches on the negative side. 

June averages look like this for different locations across the state:

It is the second wettest month on average for most of the area. And our sunrise/sunset times will be at their earliest and latest (respectively) during the latter half of the month. How will the month shape up?

June overall:

Western Kansas may have a "cooler" than average month, but it may not be by very much. Areas farther east, should end up near or slight above average (again, probably by a small margin). As far as moisture is concerned, the overall thought is that western Kansas will be near or slightly above with rainfall, while areas of central and eastern Kansas may be near or below. I don't foresee June being an overly wet month on a large scale. I think some of our best chances on a statewide basis will come in MID-June, with it turning off drier later into the month. I don't know if that's helpful or not, but that's what we are seeing for now.

Have a great day.