August outlook - will the new month be any different

As we roll into August, most of the state by this point in the season has already had it's average share of 100s for a summer. However, if you've lived here for awhile, you know there will be more 100s in the upcoming month. It almost always seems to be the case. This year won't be any different. 

The drought map to end July looks like this:

The "exceptional" drought covers a large area that should get some rain to end the month. I don't know if it will be enough rain to remove that classification, but it will be enough to help ease some of the stress. 

Here are your August averages - it does tend to be one of the wetter months out of the year for several locations:

Here is August as a whole (for temperatures):

August moisture doesn't look promising:

We do know that whatever rain we get, it won't be in the first part of the month. A dominant high pressure system is going to be meandering through the Plains, and eventually the northern Plains. This can be really frustrating for many different reasons. Day-after-day of hot weather and little or no chance of rain. Fall crops have already suffered (and could be a total loss for some). 

Summer can be a tough season when the rains aren't coming our way. This is classic La Niña - hot, dry summers. 

You'll see in the ocean temperature anomalies, there's still a lot of cool water gathered near the equator. This La Nina will likely hold on into the winter season. 

I will say this - our longer range models don't show cool weather very well. Breaks in the heat will come, but those too may not show up until mid/late August (maybe in time for kids going back to school)

Have a great day. 

Back with some badly needed rain coming

It's been awhile since we've had an update here - my apologies. I was in Boston last week for meetings and training and it's hard to get a post up when I'm away from the office. It's nice to return with some encouraging news and hopeful signs of rain.

Everybody seems to be hollering for moisture - I hear ya. This is the part of summer that worries me every time the season comes around. Long stretches of very hot weather (100s) and minimal chances for rain. However, we have a potential to pick up a months worth of rain over the course of a few days. 

Rainfall departure from average:

This is the last 30 days (June 24-July 24) and it's pretty bleak. A small pocket up in north central Kansas has had above average moisture, but many other areas are hurting after the 100 days. Some of the driest areas are in southeast Kansas, but a pocket up in Reno county stands out too. Will be interesting to see how this map changes in another 8-10 days. 

Round after round of rain coming: Most of this will come Thursday - Sunday morning

Please be patient!! I know its hard when we are advertising something so needed, but most of this will likely come Thursday - Sunday morning. Chances will shut down after that. I think most of the rain will come in the early morning hours with chances tapering a bit later in the afternoon. This should be a culmination of slow-moving storms and one storm following another - all leading to widespread rain.

Signs of another heat wave building:

Look what happens next week (to kick off August). The upper high pressure comes back from Colorado toward the Plains. Rain shuts down and the heat takes over. This could be a pattern that holds on for about a week before shifting once again. We will keep watching. Have a great day.

The hottest part of summer should be the next few weeks

There's not much else to say about Kansas weather other than we are going to go through a really hot stretch the next few weeks. Let's take it one day at a time and as soon as we see a possible break in it all, I'll do my best to highlight that. Here's where we stand on 100s so far this year. Much of the state is still below the average number of 100s that we would expect in a summer, but my suspicion is that by the end of next week, that won't be the case. People are already asking "how long is this going to stick with us"

Here's the latest 100° tally for some select locations:

Setup for the end of the week: It's all about the "high" and where it wobbles around to. Remember, underneath it's hot and chances for rain usually go to slim or none. 

One thing to note is that we are on the very eastern fringe of the "high" heading into the weekend. I'm expecting a weak front to slip in here Saturday, which might be the trigger for a few storms. Rainfall amounts won't be anything spectacular, so set expectations below .50".

Don't get your hopes up yet - this may not be much of anything. And the drop in temperatures that may come with it is probably laughable - maybe a whole 5 degrees or so. 

Heat wave warning:

Concerns are growing that next week will be loaded with 100s. While this forecast is not going to be very popular, it is what it is - mid July. I don't think we will see record highs, but it will be hot to say the least. 

Here's the outlook from July 24-31: More hot weather to wrap up the month. It is the dog days of summer after all

Have a great day.

Little bit of rain & cooler weather, then signs of a heat wave

If you get rain in July, consider yourself lucky because stubborn high pressure usually squashes our hopes of getting the much-needed moisture. Our chances are fading once we get into the weekend, but not for too long. 

Next best chance for statewide rain: 

Coming Monday evening/night with a strong front coming through the Plains. If all goes according to plan, much of the state will have a chance at seeing some storms. This front (for July anyway) looks strong and will drop our temperatures by 10-15. Difficult to say how much rain, but I think there's a chance we could end up with some .50-1" amounts. 

Upper pattern shifting around: 

The heat dome is going to shift westward for next week, so its safe to say our 2nd full week of July looks near to below normal on temperatures. Sometimes, this kind of setup can be notorious for round after round of storms, but I don't see that happening for Kansas. It looks like (after Monday night anyway) much of the week will be storm-free.

Potential heat wave: 

The 3rd full week of July could be hot for several days in a row. If the big "high" comes back over Colorado and Kansas (as models are hinting at) we will likely have a long spell of hot weather. For planning purposes, I'd expect mainly dry weather and sunshine with highs near 100. 

Smoky sky fills Alaska:

It's not uncommon to see smoke from satellites and it's not uncommon for Alaska to have summer fires, but there are over 400 active ones right now making for a very hazy sky. Drought conditions started developing in late May and have reached "moderate-severe" in some spots. Lightning strikes have started some of the fires too. This satellite image from July 1st shows just how widespread the smoke has been. That area is expected to get some rain later next week, which should help to slow the fires and improve some of the air quality. 

July outlook - the peak of summer

Summer (officially) is just getting started and we know the upcoming month will be hot, but if you have a great memory and recall the summer of 2011/2012 - that was rough. Some parts of the state had 40-50+ 100° days and so much of our vegetation dried out and was baked to a crisp. It was a rough summer and it happened in a La Niña episode (which also happens to be what we are in now). The actual number is .6°C below average - making it a weaker La Nina at the moment. 

Average temperatures and rainfall in Kansas this month look like this:

July temperature outlook (the month as a whole):

This is not going to be a cool month by any means, but I also don't think it will be full of 100s either. Models have really struggled to see the "cool" spells that pop up from time to time, and I think there will be another chance of having some heat relief by mid month. I think I mentioned a few weeks back that the upper "high" should retreat west, but will it stay there for very long? That's going to be the secret to us getting some rain too. If we can get the active weather off the Rockies and into the Plains, we'd be set for some rain and cooler weather. Right now, I think the month as a whole will be warmer than average, but again, mid/late July should have some relief. 

July rainfall:

Summer monsoon will provide its usual rains to Colorado, New Mexico, and perhaps even Arizona. That area depends on the seasonal shift in the winds to bring the rain and they should get some of that in the upcoming month. 

Have a great day. When we see some bigger changes showing up, we'll be sure to let you know.