This is strange heading into early May

One system departs and another quickly closes in for Friday, there are mixed feelings. I know some of you are upset that you didn't get any rain, others didn't get nearly enough, and then some couldn't be happier. And then some are upset about our forecast calling for rain in northern Kansas that never materialized. I get it - it's frustrating. Any slight change in strength of the system, available moisture, track, upper-level dynamics, etc. can result in different outcomes. Forecast models are still light years better than what they were 20 years ago, but they aren't perfect. 

Here's the rainfall from the last two weeks:

Keep in mind that the latest drought map just out Thursday does NOT take into account much of the rain that fell this week. The cutoff is 7am Tuesdays, and since most of the rain came after that, we won't see the impact until the next map release on May 4. 

The system coming in Friday is all but a dud. It approaches from the north and west, so amounts of moisture will quite limited. I would expect under .25" when it clears the area Friday night. 

We are moving into what is traditionally a busy stretch for severe storms. Think of all the tornado anniversaries around this time of year. We just had Andover, May 3rd is Haysville, and May 4th is Greensburg. I don't know the exact date severe weather season peaks in Kansas, but this is our prime season. What is striking is the pattern setup for next week is very benign. It's even questionable as to whether or not we will have any windy days to contend with, much less any severe threats. 

A fairly large system will be focused over the West (California), and should hang out there for several days in a row. Meanwhile, another big system will be in position up in the Great Lakes. Sandwiched in between is Kansas where things will be very quiet. 

Eary May just doesn't hold much hope for rain. There was record rainfall in May 2022 (over 12 inches to be exact in some areas), but this year, it's different. I will say this though. Western Kansas may get several rounds of isolated storms as we approach mid to late May. I don't think we will have a huge surplus, but the outlook later in the month looks more promising than what we've seen lately. Look what happened in April. We went nearly all month with nothing, and then got some decent rain later in the month. May could turn out just the same way. Stay tuned. 

Have a great day.

Here comes the rain - some of our first predictions on amounts

At the risk of overpromising and underdelivering, we wanted to hold off saying too much about the rain amounts we could get next week. However, as time draws near and anticipation builds, we will go ahead and share some more information.

Since we are in the prime of severe weather season and on the heels of a few tornadoes Wednesday night, we DON'T expect to see anything remotely close to that for the final days of April. Temperatures will be quite cool throughout the remainder of the month (highs in the 40s and 50s), and that has a significant limiting factor when trying to develop severe storms. It can still happen, but chances are significantly reduced.

The setup into the last few days of April will favor a long duration rain event, so please don't expect it to all be in the gauge Monday night or Tuesday morning. What we have waited on for so long is a slow moving system with an uninterrupted supply of Gulf of Mexico moisture. 

Monday - chances for rain should start to pick up into the afternoon and evening. Initially, it will probably be fairly scattered across central and southern Kansas. As we go on into Monday night, the activity will try and spread farther north. 

Tuesday - This will be a day where rain opportunities will be statewide. It looks like mainly rain (and a chilly one at that). It's doubtful there will even be thunderstorms given the overall setup.

Wednesday -  Chances for rain continue, but some areas of the state may experience a bit of a lull. Where that break happens is a bit uncertain, but early signals suggest it might be in central or north central Kansas. 

Thursday - rain will begin shutting down as the system weakens further. The last areas of the state to see rain might be across southern Kansas, but again, those specifics get worked out as time draws near. 

How much?? We definitely don't take this lightly and understand just how significant this rain will be for places that have been missed time and time again. Most of what you see in the map below will probably come Tuesday, but please remember that Wednesday and Thursday have chances too. I think it is safe to expect an inch, but we may end up even higher than that when this all clears the area. Getting to TWO inches isn't entirely out of the question, but will be more isolated. Think of what an inch of rain could do for us right now. Spring grass, a save for the winter wheat crop, a little less dust in the air, etc. 

The last time we had an inch of rain was quite some time ago. Let's enjoy it when it finally gets underway. Should put a smile on our faces. 

Thanks for spending some time here.

Read with caution, but be optimistic

A spring freeze may have some of us on edge at the end of the week. The latest crop progress and condition report suggested that over 50% of the wheat crop in Kansas is rated poor or very poor due to the ongoing drought. The lack of rain has more than likely slowed the growing down, which might help escape some damage with colder weather hitting late this week and into the weekend. 

The only way I think we can avoid having a hard freeze is if we have some clouds. What are the chances for Saturday morning to have some overcast to prevent several hours of 20° weather? At this time, it appears that some high clouds (probably 15k-20,000 feet) will be coming through, and while that will help, it still allows some of the heat to escape to space. Some of the latest modeling keeps most of the state out of the mid 20s (good), but it still looks cold enough to have some frost and perhaps 2 or 3 hours of sub-freezing weather across the west. 

We are not in the clear from a hard, statewide freeze at this time, but it also doesn't appear as cold given recent updates.

And keep in mind that over the last few years, our last spring freeze has occurred in late April. This is really not unusual, but we could be close to some record lows Saturday morning. 

Rain! Please read and be cautiously optimistic.

Early next week, we are anticipating a slow-moving low pressure that could wobble out of the Rockies. I would highly doubt this to be a severe weather setup. Temperatures look cooler than average, and the overall setup looks like it will be missing several important ingredients. What IS encouraging is that the Gulf of Mexico humidity looks uninterrupted as it travels northward into the Plains. This quality of moisture has been missing with several other setups we've had this spring. That connection is so important in generating our better quantities of rain. If we can get this system to hang out for a few days, most, if not all of Kansas would have rain. It is premature to discuss specific amounts right now, but we should be encouraged by what we see in the setup. We want to fix the drought now (or maybe yesterday), but it's going to take a long time to do that. An inch of rain would go a very long way in helping the wheat and bringing on some spring grass.  

I don't want to put up any precise rain maps and forecast stuff just yet. There's plenty that will adjust as we get closer, but I can leave you with this bit of data. Much of the state should have a good chance of at least getting .50" or more before the week is over. Could we get an inch of moisture? Quite possible, but let's start with smaller amounts now and wait until we get more details as the setup draws near. 

Have a great day. Please cross your fingers and say a little prayer that this moisture next week works out. We are pretty desperate.

Severe weather returns - looking into late April

Storms roll through Friday evening - there's been a slower trend in the computer models and that is GREAT news for Kansas. It boosts the chances of rain (first of all), and also allows for a bit more humidity to sneak into the area before the front plows on through. A slower trend is a good thing for us. Initial storms will begin in central Kansas around 5-7pm and track northeast. 

Later in the evening (around 8-10pm), we will see more activity farther south right along the front. This setup looks more like some heavy rain and stronger wind - whatever hail we get should get much smaller after 9 or 10pm and we switch to more of a wind potential.

As for western Kansas, some showers later tonight, but your amounts of rain will likely be under .25"

We've been doing a lot of digging to try to find the last time it wanted to rain in Kansas. It feels so out of place at the moment. Even the slightest bit of moisture gets us all amped up. Here's what we found with respect to the "last one inch of rain in a 24 hour time frame" ... it's even longer than I remembered. 

And then we were asked, "when was the last time we had no drought in western Kansas or the entire state". What we found is that drought has been ongoing in some part of Kansas now for almost 4 years. Western Kansas had complete removal of drought back in July of 2021. See the maps below. 

Still on our quest for finding a changing pattern that will result in more frequent rainfall. The setup for the 3rd full week of April isn't particularly helpful. There is another low pressure system that will setup across the central and northern Rockies. In any other yet (except for this one apparently), we would be having all kinds of rain/storm chances. However, next week, we are dealing with warm air aloft that will keep storms at bay, and then the front ends up in the wrong spot and we won't likely get much moisture at all. I'm just not that excited about any particular rain chance. 

Northwest Kansas may see some showers Thursday night (and even some snowflakes too), but we are looking for rain that does more than wet the sidewalks and the topsoil. It's not there for the 3rd full week of the month. 

I'm looking for the weather to get more active again toward the end of the month. More storms coming from the West coast should be in the making. I know we are running out of time for the wheat crop - it's needs water fast. Here are the percent chances of .50" between now and the end of April. Depending on where you are, this could be good news. 

Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average as we near the end of the month.

Thanks for coming by for a few minutes. Have a great day.

We think we have found something - but please be patient

I promised that if we saw something on the horizon (as far as rain is concerned), we'd share the details with you. You don't have to look at a drought map to know it's bad, after all, this is all we've been able to really focus on lately because week after week there's no significant rain. The new map released Thursday (April 6) has 38% of Kansas in the highest level of drought. I've even had some emails from people prepared to accept a significant risk of storms and severe weather IF it meant we'd get some good rain. That's pretty darn desperate, but that's the state of affairs right now with this ongoing lack of rain.

Very small chance, but wanting to point it out anyway:

We are seeing a slight adjustment in the setup for Sunday/Monday. The upper high that we thought would be right OVER Kansas is now looking to be slightly farther west. That opens the door for something spotty to pop up in Kansas. This is a very weak system coming through that might develop a stray shower or storm. I promise you it won't be much, but if you see something off in the distance, you'll know we covered it here. The chance Sunday would be more central Kansas, and then shift east a bit for Monday. The coverage of storms will be sparse at best.

Late in the week:

The upper low coming from the West will approach and humidity should be increase, but will this be enough to set off some rain? We're going to have watch and see how much moisture can return to the Plains, because if there's a limiting factor here, that's what it will be. 

The timing will get worked out as time draws closer, but for now we will leave it as late week and potentially into next weekend (April 15) where rain and some storms may be back. I'm NOT promising widespread activity, but we should have something back in the area.

What I'm showing you below is the % chance of getting .50" of rain between now and April 18. Take it for what it's worth - it's better than a 0% chance. 

It's risky going out on this limb, and I understand that. If you forecast the rain and it doesn't come, money is lost, and tempers start to flare. I think the next 2-3 weeks have potential, so hang in there. 

Tornado Numbers:

Just updating the tornado count from across the US after some very big days of severe weather. We are nearing 500 and its early April. You can see how the red line (the 2023 number) continues to track above the solid black line (average), and unless things to completely quiet for the next month, we will be staying above average.

Kansas numbers look like this through April 5. Even though it's been a very tame season so far, it doesn't mean anything for the rest of the season. 2008 was a record year for Kansas with respect to tornadoes, and look at how slow the season started off. Just one tornado through April 5th that year.

Have a Happy Easter.