The next 30 days are crucial

By now, most of you have probably seen the latest drought map and it's not what we want to see, but we also aren't totally surprised. We are now at 97% of Kansas back in some level of drought, with 7% in "severe" or D2 level (the scale goes up to "D4" or "exceptional")

Here's the map just released on Thursday:

The next 30 days will be absolutely crucial. Some farmers may say it's already too late, or maybe the next two weeks are most crucial for a "make-or-break" on this year's wheat crop. I'm not the expert in that, but the reason I'm pointing to the next 30 days is because after that, most longer-range models go to "drier than normal" heading into June. I'll show the maps in just a second. 

Keep an eye on the setup for April 25-28 - we are keying in on another system coming from California and into the 4 Corners region. In full disclosure, we've had these setups before, and they have failed us miserably. But the alternative is a completely different weather pattern where the upper level winds come out of the northwest OR a ridge of high pressure right over the Plains, which in both cases we wouldn't get any rain chance at all. 

Models bring in the higher Gulf of Mexico moisture starting Wednesday, but it might be even more pronounced by Thursday/Friday (April 25/26) We know there will be a connection to the Gulf of Mexico, so that's at least a start. This will also likely mark our next chances for severe storms (on a larger scale) in the Plains.

It's serious now. This is the time of year we expect to get our rains, and if we aren't getting moisture in April and May, we could be in trouble for a very hot/dry summer. 

Here's the rainfall map (compared to average) for the first 7 days in May - it's at least encouraging. I know we have seen these maps before and they haven't worked out. It is really frustrating, so I'm not upset if you don't want to believe a thing that you see below. It's just some of what we are looking at behind the scenes. 

It may already be dry again by the end of May. This is why I think we have to hope that early to mid-May has rain for Kansas. 

Latest tornado count:

The 3rd full week of April proved to have some active weather across the country. Kansas started it off with some active weather Monday night (April 15/16), and then we had a significant number of storms shortly after. What is a little surprising is who is leading the way with the tornado count in 2024 - OHIO! Of all places, Ohio and Illinois have had twice as many as we've had in Kansas and only equals about what we've had in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas combined. 

Overall, the US is not necessarily running away with the tornado count this year. With just over 300 so far, that is basically on pace for average at this point in the spring season. 

Severe weather setup for Monday - rainfall outlook

We haven't had many severe weather events this spring in Kansas. That is a "good news/bad news" situation because the good news - less destruction and headache, but bad news because we haven't been getting good rains either. 

Here's a recap on rains since the beginning of February, which was about the time the moisture started winding down for many areas. 

Your immediate area might be a tad different, but it is a safe assumption that Kansas is running about 1.50 - 3" below normal on rainfall since February 1st, and this trend can't continue, or we will get fried this summer.

Monday severe weather setup:

This will be one to watch as there are several key factors coming together. First, we need humidity! That has been severely lacking with any low pressure system that comes across the Plains. It's what hurt us last weekend (Saturday, April 6) when the humidity wasn't available (dew points were only in the low 50s). This Monday system will have dew points in the 60s - which still doesn't guarantee anything, but it increases our odds of rain/storms.

At roughly 15,000-20,000 feet off the ground, you have some stronger winds pushing in from the 4 Corners, and that can help to strengthen storms too. 

Finally, energy! Most of our computer models suggest enough of it to get the storms rolling & keep them going into Monday night. This too has been severely lacking with recent setups in the Plains. 

All of this to say that we could be looking at hail, wind, and a few tornadoes Monday, so please stick with us.

Rainfall for late April:

It's not overly encouraging. Maybe if we don't get our hopes to high, we'll get some rain. I've posted several maps previously that just haven't worked out. We thought March might have more moisture and that busted. April, so far, hasn't been overly helpful and I'm not sure the next 2 weeks will be that great either. The map below suggests near "normal" rainfall, but that would only be about .50-.75" and not very helpful in getting water replenished in lakes and ponds.

30 Day Rainfall for May:

What tends to be one of the wetter months of the year - May! In one of my earlier blog posts, I mentioned that El Nino springs tend to be wet. Last time we had an El Nino influence in May, we had a huge surplus of rain. I'm reluctant to think that will come around again, but even average rain would be welcome. This is our time of year to get the moisture - if we go into summer with dry ground, the likelihood of frying in summer heat dramatically increases. We don't want a repeat of 2011 or 2012.

Thanks for reading! Have a great day

Eclipse forecast & Kansas tornado numbers so far

April and May tend to be the most active months of the year for tornadoes in Kansas, so we are still very much at the beginning of the season. Numbers this early are considered "preliminary", but our count is up to 9 with the strongest being rated an EF-2 (which happened near Alta Vista back in early March)

How does that compare to recent years? Since 2000, here's what we have:

That would make 2024 the 7th busiest start since 2000 (with respect to tornadoes only).

We've said before that this does not give any clear signal to how the rest of the season will go. Some years start extremely quiet, but then suddenly explode just weeks later. Other times, very active starts go dormant in just a matter of days. 

We are up against another chance for some severe storms on Saturday (April 6th) with a big low emerging from the western part of the US. There are several factors that we look at when making predictions for severe weather, but one limiting ingredient might be the overall amount of humidity that we have to work with. 

Upper-level winds (shown below) coming in from the southwest are quite strong (generally 80-100 mph), which can set the stage for some rotating storms. It doesn't necessarily mean our tornado threat will be anything to get overly concerned about, but it can help to bump up the hail threat as storms develop. At the ground, the wind will likely be out of the south or southeast, and some of the gusts will be 40-50+.

Unless there is some drastic change in the setup, storms will fire up around 5/6pm and race to the east and northeast. Given how fast storms will move, it will more than likely limit just how much rain can be squeezed out of this setup.

Saturday severe weather outlook should be east of a Russell to Pratt line, and timing will more than likely be after 4/5pm:

The Great American Solar Eclipse:

The forecast is actually looking pretty decent. There will be some higher clouds passing across the central and southern Plains, but this particular kind of overcast will be of the higher, thin variety which should not completely block our view of the sun. The kind of clouds we don't want are the stratus (low level), or even thick mid-level clouds. I don't think we will see that kind of overcast in Kansas or for areas just south of us in the path of totality. 

C'mon rain, where are you?

I've been taking some heat for my forecasts calling for "wetter than average weather" and it just doesn't seem to show up. I know there are concerned farmers, ranchers, gardeners, etc. worried about a hot summer coming on if we don't get our predicted spring rains. 

Let me assure you that I'm equally agitated, but I understand that some of you reading this make a living off the land and when it doesn't rain, you're in trouble. There's no forecasting method that will be 100% perfect, but all I'm attempting to do is showcase what we are seeing in the patterns and give you as much information as I can, without stirring up too much false hope. 

With that being said, remember that March (on average) is not a very wet month at all. Most of us only average about 1-2 inches of moisture over the 31-day period. If we look back at the 60-day rainfall/melted snow too from January 26-March 26, the big yellow area over central and southern Kansas is showing us about 2-3" below average moisture. 

Areas from Hays on north have had some moisture, but only about an inch above average for the 60-day period. 

I received an email from someone wanting to know if we were already seeing the oncoming La Nina influence on our weather patterns. The short answer is "no" - and I don't think we will see that until June at the earliest, but perhaps even later than that if trends hold. Just compare the two maps below. The top one is current, while the one right underneath is from February 1st. Take note of the drop in dark shades of red are occurring along the equator. 

The collapse of El Nino is well underway, and it is quite unusual to see how quickly it's fading. Normally, it takes a good 6-10 months (or more) to transition out of one before the other begins to take hold. 

April Outlook:

Remember that April is not the wettest month of the year, but for most of the state (in a typical year), we double our moisture compared to March. The warmer weather allows for more moisture, but as we all know, too many things can go wrong, and our area gets left high and dry. If you are wondering about "last spring freeze", we are almost there. We still have a chance to see some chilly weather in the first week of April, but beyond that, it looks like we are warming back up again. I don't see a big cold snap happening in late April.

Here's one model for the upcoming month - not the best of news for southern Kansas, but we will still get some rain. 

Before you get too discouraged, take a look at this seasonal outlook lumping April/May/June all into one map. Will all of this come in one or two storm systems? The distribution is hard to pin down, but even if we get major runoff from one big system, we need that to put water back in ponds, reservoirs, and lakes. 

I think it's overdone, but it is not the only model we have access to that "hints" at decent spring moisture. And if you think I'm just pulling this from thin air, see what our partners at the Climate Prediction Center have released for a spring outlook on moisture AND drought. In Kansas, the outlook suggest drought removal or significant easing of it. We'll take it

And then there is this (for April, May, and June):

Thanks for stopping by!

First look at eclipse weather - tornado numbers

The total solar eclipse is quickly approaching and just like the last one in August 2017, this one will likely get the same amount of attention. However, if the weather doesn't cooperate, it won't be good for anyone. Travel to the path of totality is just a bit farther for most of us that want to get there, and as soon as we can, we will try and highlight which locations might be the best for viewing. 

Details are still fuzzy since we are a few weeks out, but some of the models out to that date are showing low pressure over the central Plains and to the west. Assuming this is correct, we might have a cloud cover problem around Kansas, but areas near the path of totality could be in better shape. This is preliminary, but initial looks are somewhat concerning for local viewing.

Here's another look at the potential setup for the period leading into April 8th. This would be problematic for anyone wanting to view the eclipse in Texas. Lower pressures in the 4 Corners area could have clouds and precipitation developing in the southern Plains. Don't change plans yet, but we do have potential active weather coming through the region during that time frame.

The umbra (shadow from the moon) is 122 miles wide, and it will be moving at over 1500 mph. It would move even faster if it weren't for the fact the Earth and moon are rotating in the same direction. In the image below, the penumbra (area within the purple ring) will see some part of the eclipse. That's roughly 5100 miles wide (from near Alaska to Panama). It's important to note that at no point (outside of the path of totality) would it be acceptable to look directly at the sun during any portion of the eclipse. 

How will the eclipse look from western Kansas? Here's a preview of how much of the sun will be covered from Goodland's position.

And from Salina:

And Wichita:

Severe weather season is here: Latest tornado tally across the United States shows that the pace is right on target for what you might expect at this point in the season. The red line represents what is happening in 2024, while the black line is considered "average".

As we approach the end of March, the highest probability of tornadoes stretches from Oklahoma/Texas to Georgia. As you might expect, that area spreads west and north as the spring moves forward.

Thanks for reading!

Severe weather thoughts - April rain coming

The season is here and after two EF2 tornadoes in northeast Kansas, our severe weather special comes at a good time while we are gearing up for the season. It will air Saturday night at 10:35 (KWCH), and then you can also catch it online.

I was tasked with coming up with a severe weather outlook. These are really hard to do because if your house ends up getting hit, you'll remember the season as "bad". And then there's the question, what makes the season bad? Is it 50 tornadoes, 100, etc.? The average for Kansas in a season is around 80. Since 2000, here's are the years where the tornado count has been higher than average:

Out of the 14 years (since 2000), there are 4 years where El Nino was occurring in the Pacific. That was 2019, 2016, 2015, 2010. 

Here's what we are in now:

Notice the orange color within the highlighted box. That's water that is about 1.4°C above average, making this an El Nino spring season. But you also have to look just outside of that highlighted area and see the "cooler" water showing up - that's the oncoming La Nina that we will be talking about very soon (maybe as soon as this summer). If we take this one step further and consider the years where El Nino was going away and La Nina was coming on, here's what we find:

There is NOT necessarily a correlation to a high number of tornadoes when El Nino is going away and La Nina is coming on. The El Nino in 1998 was particularly strong, and it was quickly replaced with a La Nina, and that year ended up with slightly fewer than average tornadoes. 

El Nino has been a helpful driver of more rain/snow for the Plains this winter, but it hasn't completely eliminated the drought yet. Take a look at what El Nino springs have looked like in years past - the purple is good - it means above average moisture. Let's look at 2015, 2016, 2019:+

May 2015:

May 2016:

May 2019:

I'm not saying it's a guarantee, but there are many more cases of "wet" springs with El Nino than dry ones, so I think odds are in our favor that this upcoming spring will be at least average moisture, but for many areas, it should be wetter than average. See the early April rainfall outlook at the end of this post.

Rain is coming!!

The 3rd full week of March (18-22) doesn't look that promising, but once we get beyond that timeframe, odds look better for moisture. Here's a 30 day preview of March 24-April 24:

And for the entire month of April, one set of model data looks like this:

I know it's just one model, but we've been expecting a turn toward some wetter conditions for the central US, and I believe we are just getting there. What should be a continual march of low pressure systems in from the West should begin soon and continue deep into April. Will this be the uptick in severe weather? Stay tuned.

A mix of more active and dry weather ahead

We will have another chance of some active weather coming at the end of our second week of March, but that might be short lived before it dries out again. 

The first drought map out in March looks like this (remember it doesn't take into account rain from the recent system). Sadly, we are moving in the wrong direction. We are back up to 59% in drought - which is up from 52% the previous week.

The big system shaping up around March 14/15 will be slow moving, and if we can get this to position in just the right place, it might mean more beneficial rain. The upper low will try to separate from the main flow of air aloft, and if it succeeds in doing that, it will wobble around for many days. That's something to watch for just days from now. As of this writing, the low will form and stall somewhere near the 4 Corners area - that's not a bad spot for it to be, but if it ends up farther west, we are in trouble.

This is a complex scenario because the rain could split and go around Kansas. I just think we should keep expectations low at this stage because a front may shove the higher humidity east of Kansas, and we'd be left with a whole bunch of nothing. We need to see where the upper low will establish itself.

Rainfall compared to average - Ending March 20:

We may hit a drier spell in the 3rd full week of the month, but I wouldn't let this be too alarming considering everything I've look at suggests more moisture should find its way back to the region late in the month.

Early April Rainfall:

Temperatures:

Two different models into late March bring chillier weather back. It's too late in the season for Arctic air (you can breathe a sigh there), but if these maps hold up, I'd prepare for highs in the 40s and low 50s. That's not really earth-shattering, but it might not be what you were hoping for as we know spring begins on March 19th.

Tornado update - as of March 8:

We've had some encounters with brief severe weather in Kansas. As Severe Weather Awareness Week ends, here's a look at the US tornado count compared to "average" and recent years. There's nothing alarming in what we see right now. The current count is the red line and black is normal or average. There's no way to draw conclusions from what we've seen so far to what's next, but we are putting together our severe weather special that airs Saturday, March 16th at 10:35PM. We will try to unlock a few clues as to what we think the upcoming season has in store for the Plains.