Whiplash is coming in February

I found it really hard to believe the other day that so many locations in Kansas hadn't experienced a 50° day in January. We all know it's been cold, but for some reason I thought we had made it to 50 earlier in the month. At any rate, we are moving into the 50s for the last few days of the month, but January as a whole has been cold! (see the map below)

The pattern is all different next week, where we find ourselves in the calm before February's storm. When it comes to rain (or snow), we are basically in no man's land for either one. And it will be way to warm for snow anyway. A building ridge of high pressure sets the stage for a huge surge in warm air, and it wouldn't be impossible for a day (or two) briefly getting to 60°

Much of the country will experience the "January thaw" for the end of the month, and even the first few days into February look rather mild too. 

There's no doubt we will quickly move back into a wet setup and eventually, colder weather is going to find its way back to the Plains. We hinted at this in our last update that given a "negative" Arctic Oscillation, we should see the gates open to Canada once again. I don't think it will be quite as cold as the stretch we had earlier in January, but highs in the teens and 20s would certainly be in the realm of possibilities moving forward.

Moisture returns soon:

The southern branch of the jet stream is ramping up again, and we will see more low pressure systems coming at us from the desert Southwest. Be prepared as we move into the first week of the new month!

The cold is not over yet:

While I'm not convinced the February cold snap is like the January one, we are not headed for early spring. I have a strong feeling that the month ahead is colder than average, so don't let the early February warmth lead you astray. The map above would suggest much of the country will be headed for cold weather again soon. Oh boy.

Seasonal snow checkup & is the Arctic air done with?

The last Arctic blast has probably overstayed its welcome for most of you, but it is almost over. It's not a big surprise that it stayed for so long and the stout nature of it goes along with just how much of the United States is covered in snow. Look at the map as of Wednesday afternoon showing just how much real estate is blanketed by some amount of snow. 

And then compare that to one year ago on January 17th when it was quite limited to the northern US and higher elevations. Remember last winter was another season with very low snow amounts for Kansas.

At this point of the winter season, here are some snow amounts for a few select locations in Kansas, and they are all above average. What gave us the biggest boost in south central Kansas was the big snow right after Thanksgiving. Since then, we've had some smaller snows, but there's still plenty more to come before spring arrives. 

What's left in January?

The Arctic air is over for now, but we think it may return in February. A little bit more about that in a second. First, take a look at the next 10-12 days:

And early February looks milder too - at least no sign of bitter cold. This will likely yield highs in the 40s and 50s. The Arctic Oscillation is trending back toward positive for 7-10 days, and I would think most of the country thaw a bit. 

The next 3-4 weeks will likely remain productive when it comes to moisture for the central/southern Plains. This is very fitting with how our winter has been tracking - active southern branch of the jet and more chances to push back on drought. The graphic below is "compared to average", and right now, the average rainfall is low, only about .50" or so. It's even lower in western Kansas. 

Is there more Arctic air? - Yes, I think there is a good chance we will have another encounter with it, but most likely not until the 2nd half of February. However, I don't see it lasting as long, and it more than likely won't be as extreme for Kansas (the heart of it should setup mainly EAST of us). Let's watch for this in the last few weeks of February.

Thanks for reading!

More snow & Arctic air. Will this be it?

Arctic air is going to be the talker through at least January 17, as it covers a good chunk of the United States. Here's what the period Jan. 12-16 looks like from a national perspective:

And it won't be our last bout with Arctic air, as we will be right on the edge of the "coldest" stuff heading into next weekend. Expect a glancing blow of Arctic air next Friday/Saturday - maybe into Sunday too.

For reference, the average high is around 43/44° and most days will come in well under that. 

Longest stretches of sub-freezing temperatures:

Back in February 2021, there was an almost two-week stretch of highs below 32°. While it was one of the longest ones on record, there have been years where it was even longer.

This stretch coming later in the month won't be as cold as what we are facing in this first blast of Arctic air. But notice what is happening with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) as we go to the end of January and into early February. The green line (which is the one to watch) remains negative as we move down the stretch, which would suggest that it will remain cold for a while (not necessarily record setting), but any amount of "milder" air is likely short lived heading into early February (when the AO continues to show a negative trend.

More snow ahead?

A break in the active weather should be coming soon, but not something that will last for a long period of time. Take a look at late January (ending January 23). This may be the result of (temporary) northwest flow aloft, which tends to be drier for this area. 

There will be more moisture coming heading into February:

The active southern jet stream that is responsible for our wet winter so far will keep at it heading into next month. Here's a preview of the first 22 days of February. Computer models are already suggesting that an early February storm seems likely with good chances for snow. It's unclear how impactful the system will be, but we'll keep an eye on it.

Snow forecast for the first 10 days of February:

Have a great day!

Winter storms are lined up and ready to go

Winter storm #1:

Just diving into the active weather that is headed to the Plains. The first system isn't a huge concern because it is basically a snow event that will come straight down and provide some welcome moisture to the winter wheat crop. When all is said and done for Kansas, this is the water equivalent to the snow that's predicted for Kansas. 

Winter storm #2:

Following quick on its heels will be a more significant winter storm. We expect this to be an energetic storm with ample Gulf of Mexico moisture to interact with, setting the region up for more snow Monday/Tuesday. What does it mean for a storm to be "energetic"? If you look at the winds at upper levels (generally 18,000 feet or higher), you'll notice that area of pink or red immediately behind the "L". That strong wind will help to intensify the system into a very deep area of low pressure. This translates to strong winds near the ground at the height of the storm (expected to be Monday night/early Tuesday)

Track of the storm is key too (we mention this a bunch on TV). In order for Kansas to end up in the "heavier" snow, the system needs to cross central or southern Oklahoma. This one coming up will most likely ride the Red River Valley, putting the area in a favorable spot for higher snow amounts. 

Given what we know now, the leading edge of the winter storm should begin Monday morning as a rain & snow combo. However, as the day continues on, the rain snow line should push east and I think by mid-afternoon Monday, most if not all of it coming down will be snow. The actual changeover time (in addition to everything else) can also help determine how much snow. The low pressure system will move FAST, likely clearing the area in about 24 hours' time. The graphic below shows where the snow accumulations will likely go.

Arctic air on the move! - This will be headed to Kansas as we approach the second weekend of 2024. 

I think once we get into the last 10-12 days of the month, we will be on the other side of the coldest air of January. This period of bitter cold may be with us for a good week to 10 days.

January 13-20:

January 20-27:

A glance at February:

Looks like the active weather will continue next month with more moisture coming up for the Plains. Models suggest above normal moisture (remembering that average in February is around .50-1")

Have a great day