Lunar Eclipse & more

After last years very popular solar eclipse, we only get one eclipse this year and it's happening WEDNESDAY. This will also be a supermoon and it's considered a blue moon because it is the second full moon in a month. Here's what you need to know:

Start Time: 5:48 a.m. (moon begins entering Earth's shadow)
Total Eclipse: 6:51 a.m. 

The moon will actually set DURING the total eclipse, so you'll want to try and catch the beginning of the event, or you'll miss it altogether. Binoculars might be very helpful for this eclipse because the moon will become quite dim as it nears the horizon.

Will the weather cooperate?
There will be some high clouds coming in from the west early Wednesday. These are the kinds of clouds that should be transparent enough to still see through, but it might make the moon even more dim.

Fire Weather Concerns:

We will have to watch Tuesday & Friday this week to have the highest fire weather ingredients. Gusty winds & warmer weather won't be a good combination right now because everything is just so darn dry. So do what you can to minimize the risk.

Arctic Air Watch:

Heading into the first weekend in February, watch for some Arctic air to move back toward Kansas. It could come with some light snow showers for northern Kansas by Saturday night or Super Bowl Sunday, but it's not going to be much of a storm. We will continue to watch and update you through the week.

Warm to finish January, then....

it's back to much colder weather. That's right, enjoy this stretch of warmer than normal weather because some of the bitter cold snaps we've already been through will be back.

Just look at what we are forecasting in our 10 day outlook. There's not much sign of any winter until we hit the beginning of February. 

First, let's take a closer look at what will happen at the end of the week. We definitely need rain, but the front coming in Friday night I'm afraid, will shove almost ALL of the rain east of our area. Even the areas that get some moisture, it's probably going to be under .25".

Most of next week, we see the jet stream setting up to our north. This will continue the long stretch of warmer than normal weather across the Plains. While I highly doubt we set any record high temperatures, we should easily be 10-15 degrees above normal in many spots. It's going to be a nice week if you like the mild weather. 

We also have signs of something coming into the area toward the end of next week (right as we close January). Right now, this is looking like a rain/snow chance and NOT a big storm at all. But let's just hope we get something! So many of these chances have slipped by to our east. 

Getting into February, I would suggest getting ready for more cold blasts coming from the Arctic. I think we are in for several more shots of bitter cold, much like we've already experienced at least 3 or 4 times this winter. 

And if you were hoping for some decent snows... well, the chances aren't good at all. I'm expecting we will transition back to a northwest wind pattern aloft, which means... more dry weather. It's not what most of us want to hear, but it's going to be a real struggle getting precipitation.

Snow reports - what's ahead for KS

The latest winter storm is beginning to wind down for Kansas, but not before dumping HUGE amounts of snow in northwest Kansas. Here are some of the amounts:

11" - St Francis (Cheyenne County)
9" - Goodland
6.5" - 13 NW Edson (Sherman County)
4" - Oakley
2.7" - Hays
2.5" - Norton

Wind Gust 63 mph in Dodge City
59 mph gust in Garden City

What's left with the storm: The big winter storm begins to move away later today/early this evening. The back edge of the snow should be along and east of the Flint Hills as we get to 6 p.m. this evening. This storm hasn't had a ton of cold air to work with, so the moisture content of the snow is higher than some of our previous storms this winter. For 10" of snow, one would expect about 1" of liquid moisture.

We will quickly warm up through the next couple of days, so anybody with snow on the ground today will see it melting soon.

Late week storm coming in:
Once again, we see another system approaching the Plains late in the week (likely Friday). Recent trends in the computer models suggest the rain chances are likely to go east of Kansas. AGAIN!! This is very discouraging, but nothing we can do. So many of our storms have come straight in from the WEST, and we need them to come from the SOUTHWEST.

Coming up later this week I'll talk about what happens with our long range pattern heading into early February. Have a good Monday.

Two storms on the way - here's what to watch

It's been a very, very long time since we've been able to say we are in an active weather pattern, but that just might be the case for the next 10 days. We NEED both of our approaching storms to drop moisture in Kansas and surrounding areas, but it may not work out that way.

Enjoy the warmth today:

Most of the state will likely get to 60 or above Friday afternoon.

Weekend Storm (#1):

So the problem with this first storm is that it's going to go right over Kansas. Sounds promising, but it's dragging in too much dry air with it and that's going to cut into our rain and snow amounts. What would be better for us is to have the storm go about 400 miles farther south, and the chances of that happening now aren't very good. So given the projected track, most of the snow will miss us to the north. But far northwest Kansas still has a chance of getting some 2-4" amounts by later Sunday night.

Next storm to watch (#2) - weekend of Jan. 26-28:

Another system will approach from the west and possibly develop into a nice storm just east of the Rockies. It's a little early to say much about the possible storm, but temperatures will warm enough as the storm closes in that I would expect a chance for rain to start, then maybe a changeover to some snow. This storm will be different than others because it may develop right over our heads. We will see.

This has been the year for snow in the deep South. Look at some of the snowfall amounts now halfway through meteorological winter. These areas only average about 1" of snow during the winter, but have had 3-4 times the normal amount. For Kansas, most of us are running about 5-8" below normal on snow, but that will change this weekend as the storm rolls on through. 

January heat wave will be followed by a storm

Thanks for checking out the blog. If you are reading this for the first time, thanks for giving it a try. I do my best to keep you ahead of what we are seeing in the forecast models, both short and longer range.

Cold Now:

This latest cold snap covers almost all of the country, including the deep South. For the second time this year, places that don't normally get much snow are seeing it again. Look at this picture from Southside, AL (just outside of Birmingham). It's not much, but those areas don't normally see much snow. And huge flakes yesterday in Huntsville. These places average about .5-1" of snow yearly. And this is their 2nd good storm this winter. 

Warming Returns to Kansas:

We will see a big jump in temperatures for the remainder of the week. It's a little hard to imagine 60° weather after having so much cold weather this week. But it's a west-southwest wind that does the trick. Anytime you see the wind coming from the south, it almost always means a jump in temperatures.

Thursday

Friday

Watching the weekend storm:

Good news - we see a storm on the horizon that (unless something MAJOR changes) should bring rain and snow to the Plains. Bad news - this storm is going to be a huge headache for the recovery efforts in California after the mudslides. They will get hit Friday. 

Based on the track we see now, this area of low pressure should develop and strengthen in the Oklahoma panhandle. It would then track toward Wichita before lifting toward KC. This storm will connect and intercept Gulf of Mexico moisture, so we could see higher snowfall amounts than with any other particular storm this season in the Plains. We still don't know the exact path of the storm (because it hasn't even formed yet), so when it finally begins to move over land into the weekend, we will be able to narrow down our forecast even more. But if you have travel plans this weekend, watch out. This storm could have some very big impacts on Kansas.

Wicked cold now - more active weather to come

Good Monday everyone and welcome to a COLD start to the week. And for the first time in 394 DAYS... the snow drought ends for Wichita. We still aren't anywhere close to normal snowfall for the winter season (to date), but at least we are on the board with some snow.

Dangerous Wind Chill Alert- 
Take a look at some of the feels like temperatures for Tuesday morning. This will be some of the coldest we've had all winter (similar to the bitter cold we had right after Christmas). Just try to limit exposure to the cold if you can, and if not, layers layers layers.

January Heat Wave (sort of)-
Later this week, the bitter cold snap will retreat with the help of a south wind. In fact, temperatures are expected to reach the 50s (maybe 60s in the west) before we get to the weekend.

Another Storm to Watch - 
There will be another storm hitting the west coast by the end of the week with heavy rains and snows. We have to watch this storm as there's a chance it will move into the Plains by Sunday. Let's see what future model runs show us, but at least for now, there's a chance for some rain and snow. We do need the moisture.

Storm ending - look at what comes next

The winter storm departs, leaving behind a few inches of snow and some slick roads. Here are some reports that have come in through the morning:

Ellsworth - 2"
Salina: 2-3"
Lyons: 1"
Dodge City: 1.2"
McPherson: 2"
Southern Ottawa county: 1.3"
Wichita Rainfall: 0.09"

Here are some photos from Thursday morning. 

Photo courtesy Katie Johnston - I135 southbound near the 235 interchange

Dodge City - courtesy Ed O'Neal

FRIDAY: We don't have a storm coming in Friday, but there is a chance for some light snow flurries to move across northern Kansas into the evening hours. This shouldn't cause any big problems on roads or highways.

SATURDAY: Bitter cold will move in Saturday. Wind chills early Saturday will likely be below zero and afternoon highs are only expected to be in the teens to near 20.

MONDAY: And there's still another chance for some light snow into early Monday. We expect a cold front to cross the state and help produce a batch of light snow that will move from north to south. Some places might get up to an inch out of this, but it's doubtful that it will be more than that.

Bottom line is that we don't have any more storms rolling into the Plains for awhile, but we WILL have some Arctic air to deal with. Stay warm & safe out there.

Winter storm update - Wednesday

Our storm is pushing in from the west and I wanted to show you some snapshots out of our latest Future Track. This is still not looking to be a huge storm, but it will be our strongest of the winter season (at least around Kansas) and for most, the first chance at accumulating snow.

The storm begins to produce some rain/snow late this evening:

After midnight, we should start to see some rain & snow developing into central Kansas. There will also be north winds gusting to over 30 mph (the kind of wind that wakes you up and rattles the house) that will create significant blowing snow.

This storm is moving very fast and has a limited supply of moisture to work with. So I'm expecting the snow will end quickly Thursday and sunshine will return during the afternoon.

 So here is a look at our snowfall forecast. It really hasn't changed much since we first put out some numbers Monday. Bottom line is that most of the state will get snow. The best chances at getting 3 inches will be focused over central and north central Kansas. But measuring any amount of snow will be extremely tough because so much of it will be piled up in the strong winds.

What is wrong with this storm?

We are just a day away from a storm rolling into the Plains. And while the track looks more favorable than anything we've seen this winter, something is truly missing.

MOISTURE!!!
As this system begins to track into the central Plains, the rich, Gulf Moisture is essentially cutoff from Kansas, or pushed well southeast of our area. Without this connection, it's a VERY long shot at getting much more than just a few hundredths. Even the amounts of snow for Kansas will not add up to very much. It's extremely frustrating to see this happening, but we can't do anything about it. Sometimes patterns setup and once established, they are extremely hard to break.

There should be a little more snow falling north of Kansas into Nebraska, the Dakotas and the upper Midwest. But I don't think it's going to add up to very much. There could be some 2-5" amounts north of us, but because the storm is moving so quickly and moisture is limited, this isn't going to be a big snow generator.

We will have more details on this winter system coming up tonight on our evening newscasts, but set your expectations low on how much precipitation we will get. Things just aren't lining up for Kansas to get beneficial moisture.

Some wild weather arriving this week

Could it be we FINALLY have a storm on the way to Kansas? After being left out of almost everything that has happened the last 3 months, we just might have a decent shot at some rain and snow before this week is out.

First, we get the BIG jump in temperatures today, tomorrow, and even Wednesday.

Our maps are showing some 60s too for Tuesday & Wednesday. That would put us in striking range of some records in Kansas, but most record highs this time of year are still around 70 degrees, which looks a little out of reach this week.

Midweek Storm:
The storm we are watching today and tomorrow will be coming through southern California and eventually, the 4 Corners area. We have yet to see a storm take this track all winter, and that's why the drought conditions continue to expand. 

Just ahead of the storm, we will likely see 50s and 60s Wednesday, but then rain sets in Wednesday night. It should develop in central and western Kansas first, then change to snow during the night.

My concern is the combination of strong wind and snow Wednesday night in western and northern Kansas. Blizzard-like conditions are certainly possible for a few hours, which will of course have impacts on road conditions. I'll be posting some initial thoughts on snow accumulation later today and again tomorrow here on the blog. It's safe to say this is the most significant storm we've seen in the Plains all season, and maybe the strongest in nearly 3 months.

Weekend storm update - another one next week

Should we be concerned about icy weather Sunday? There is a storm rolling through the Plains this weekend and considering the time of year, here's a closer look at what areas might see a bit of ice.

Temperatures will be steady or warming Sunday morning, so the only area that might wake up to some ice would be far northeast Kansas. And that should only be a concern for a few hours Sunday morning.

Rain showers will gradually move east and by the middle of the afternoon (Sunday), it should all be over for Kansas. As we've been saying throughout the week, don't expect much more than .10". Southeast Kansas will get the most, with some areas getting over .25"

Alright, so this weekend storm doesn't do much. Is there any hope next weeks storm will be better? For the first time this winter, we COULD have a storm coming through southern California, into the 4 Corners area, and then into the Plains. The track of the storm is key. If it shifts farther north, we are in trouble (we miss out on the rain/snow). If the storm tracks a bit farther south, we could get more moisture (and possibly more snow). Timing of the storm looks to be Wednesday night-Thursday. We will be watching the models carefully through the weekend.