Major travel headaches - but not in Kansas

If you didn't have any traveling to do and didn't mind getting stuck at home, a forecast calling for 10-12" of snow might be appealing to you heading into the Christmas season. But for those who have to travel either by car or air, what a nightmare. Winter storm warnings cover much of the Northeast and flight delays are likely during one of the busiest times of the year.

There will be some lighter snows across the upper Midwest for today. Places like Minneapolis and Chicago could see a little snow, but shouldn't be anything major. Maybe the best news in the forecast (aside from the quiet travel weather around here) is that California is expected to see some very generous rainfall (maybe 2-4 inches for some areas)  The drought has already made history and water restrictions are in place, so let's hope the active weather in the west provides some relief. 

Thanksgiving Day in Kansas will start cold with lows in the 20s, but we are headed for a warming trend into the afternoon. Some places in western Kansas will be near 60 in the afternoon. It definitely won't be the warmest Thanksgiving on record. That was just two years ago in Wichita when the high hit 75. 

Enjoy the 60 degree for Friday and Saturday. A cold front coming in early Sunday will drop the temperatures for the end of the holiday weekend. Be safe and Happy Thanksgiving!!

More changes to come & travelers beware

Travel concerns are focused in the Northeast

Messy weather impacting the northeast Wednesday afternoon

Just a few days out from Thanksgiving and if you plan to travel around Kansas or surrounding states, I don't think you'll have too many problems. The trouble areas will likely be in the northeast and maybe in the northern Rockies. Already, a winter storm watch has been posted and will likely be upgraded to a warning (maybe later today) from West Virginia to Maine. The forecast models are showing 4-8 inches of snow for some areas that could cause delays at some of the major airports. The other area to watch is Montana and northern Wyoming. Travel advisories are posted for those areas too, so travel will likely be slower in those areas. 

The biggest challenge for us might be some gusty winds from the northwest on Wednesday. There is another front coming down from the northwest that will drop the temperatures 5-8 degrees heading into Wednesday. There won't be any rain or snow, but driving north into the wind may not be much fun.

It looks like we will have a wide range in temperatures for Thanksgiving Day around Kansas. I think there will be places in western Kansas that see low 60s for the afternoon, with cooler 40s east of I-135. And although there will be a breeze out of the south, it shouldn't be anything too strong.

Get ready for 60 degree weather Friday and Saturday. Then a STRONG cold front will come through Saturday night and likely drop the temperatures back into the 30s for highs Sunday/Monday. 

Thanksgiving week weather

We've made it to Thanksgiving week and it's a busy one as we travel around and spend some extra time with family and friends. The weather can definitely interfere with our plans, but I think you'll be happy to know this week looks like a quiet one for most of our region. I'm posting maps to showcase what will be going on around the country Wednesday, which is traditionally one of the busiest travel days of the year. There are a couple of areas where things could get slowed up and that would be on the east coast and in the northern Rockies. A large storm system is likely going to generate a bunch of rain from Florida into the northeast. Some of the moisture on the north end of the storm (New York, Boston, Philadelphia) could get snow, so flight delays and wet roads would be something to consider there. Another area to watch would be in Montana and northern Wyoming with some snow coming back into the area.

Travel weather for Wednesday

Travel weather for Wednesday

Thanksgiving Day in Kansas: Sunshine with highs near 60 in the west, 50s for central Kansas, and upper 40s east of I-135

Toward the end of the week, I expect we will see a couple of days with warmer temperatures. The jet stream is going to pull back to the north and we could be close to 60 for Friday and Saturday. There is another strong cold front lurking to the north that will likely slip through Saturday night and cool us down into the 30s/40s by the end of the holiday weekend. There won't be any moisture with it, but we will be headed for some colder weather by then. Have a good Monday (Monday isn't so bad when it's a short week)

Lake effect snow, some freezing drizzle, and a preview to Thanksgiving week!

How lake effect snow sets up

The pictures out of Buffalo, NY are just incredible. It's hard for me to even imagine what it would be like going through such an event. Even if Kansas had half of the snow they had there, we would have some huge problems on our hands. You've heard of lake effect snow, but how does it happen? The two main ingredients are cold air and warm water. When the Arctic air moves over the warmer lake water, you get the enhancement of snow downwind of the lakes. The water temperature can be 20-30 degrees warmer than the surrounding air. What is a challenge is forecasting the individual bands of heavy snow (where some places get 40-60 inches, and 5 miles away, it may just be 4 or 5 inches)

Friday morning

We could see a few hours of some light freezing drizzle early Friday. This will not be a major ice accumulation event. Most of us will warm into the 40s by early Friday afternoon, so if there are any problems, it should be limited to the hours of 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. and after that, we should be in good shape. One computer model doesn't bring the drizzle in until after we've warmed above 32 degrees.

Weekend rainfall will track south and east of Kansas

The weekend storm is mainly going to pass us to the south. Heavier rains (on the order of 1-2 inches) will fall in Oklahoma, northeast Texas, and Arkansas. Once again, we are just on the edge of a decent rain making storm. The moisture would sure be nice to have, but it's tracking too far south for it to do much good around here.

Just a heads up for next week. Another BIG change is going to take place in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. It's a very busy week for Thanksgiving and we look for another surge of some Arctic air to move south. Might even see a little snow too. Details to come as we get closer!

Getting a little warmer - watching for some ice Friday

It's amazing how much warmer 40 and 50 degree weather feels after a week long stretch of well below normal temperatures. Western Kansas ended up with some 50 degree weather on Tuesday, but we are in fact behind another cold front today (Wednesday), so most of the state can expect highs in the 40s.

We did check the record books yesterday and right now we are on track to have the 7th coldest November on record, but with more than 10 days left in the month, the exact numbers are going to change. The coldest average temperature for Wichita is 38 degrees, and through November 18th, the average is 39.6.

We are looking at some moisture that will be creeping in from the south heading into Friday morning. Parts of Kansas could see a few hours of freezing drizzle, but ice accumulation is highly unlikely. We will have updates on this coming up on the afternoon/evening newscasts. In the meantime, have a good Wednesday.

Record cold today but some milder days are coming

Temperatures for 7 a.m. Tuesday

Record low temperatures are showing up in Kansas and across much of the United States. Take a look at this map. The average temperature is 19.4 degrees across the entire country. I said last night on the 10 p.m. broadcast it looked like more than 90% of the US was below normal, but it's even higher than that. In fact, this is the coldest November morning in 38 years. About 85% of the lower 48 United States experienced below freezing temperatures Tuesday morning. 

We've also had record low temperatures in Wichita, Russell, and Salina. The list may grow, so be sure to catch our newscasts later today, but here are the numbers:

Wichita Record: 12, 1903 (started out with 5 this morning)
Russell: 10, 1951 (started with 5 this morning)
Salina: 13, 1951 (started with 6 this morning)

And after calculating the average temperature for Goodland and Wichita over the last week, it was an unbelievable 16 degrees for Goodland. Wichita wasn't quite as cold, but still had an average temperature of 26. Keep in mind, normal highs are in the mid 50s and normal lows would be upper 20s to near 30. So for the last week, we've been having some high temperatures that were colder than our normal lows. Just amazing!!

We are still tracking a storm system on the way to Kansas for the weekend. IF we get any precipitation at all, it would be rain and not ice, snow or sleet. The latest computer models continue to keep almost all of the measurable rainfall to our south and east, so it's unlikely we will have anything significant here in Kansas, but there is still time for the storm to track a little farther north. We will be watching, but if you are looking ahead to the weekend and plan to travel, there won't be any icy weather to be concerned with. Good news going into the weekend before Thanksgiving.

Slowly getting warmer & another storm next weekend

Welcome to Monday and although it may be a little tough getting going this morning, maybe this will help. A warm up is in the forecast!! Okay, so it's not 70s like some of you have been asking for, but 40s and maybe if we are lucky, 50s. We've had this cold weather now for a solid week. You might recall, it was last Monday when the front came in and dropped our temperatures by 40-50 degrees.

Snow reports as of 10 a.m. Monday

The weekend snow was a little earlier than normal, but it's not unheard of to have snow in November. Dodge City with 2.1 inches of snow and Wichita with 1.8 inches set records for yesterdays date. Probably the most surprising to me was the last time Wichita had 1.8" or more this early in the season was back in 1974. 

Pattern for Thursday, Nov. 20

Looking ahead now, the pattern will start to change by Wednesday/Thursday. This huge, cold airmass is going to pull away to the north and east and allow for our temperatures to start climbing once again. We should see 40s throughout most of the week, but some 50s may sneak in for a day or so. Our warmest day should be Thursday.

Active weather for next weekend

There are two branches of the jet stream we have to keep an eye on. The north one (called the polar jet) and the southern branch (called the sub-tropical jet) are factors we consider in making a forecast. At the end of the week, the sub-tropical jet is going to be quite active with a couple different systems sliding through. The first one (arriving Thursday/Friday) isn't going to do much for us other than bring in some clouds. The second one brings a chance for rain showers to the area by Saturday/early Sunday. The unseasonably cold air will have moved away, so it's very unlikely that we would change the forecast to include some snow for the weekend. We are also not likely to see the kind of temperatures we've had for the last week for awhile either. 

Thanks for all of the great weather/snow pictures from over the weekend. Here is a link to some of the pictures if you missed them on the air: http://www.kwch.com/news/local-news/29748314

And of course Millie... making her first tracks in the snow this year too!!

Some snow/not a big storm

You've made it to Friday and have probably heard a lot of different forecasts by now for the weekend. We started forecasting 2-4 inches of snow back on Tuesday, and the forecast is holding up pretty well. I have to say, it looks like 4 inches of snow would be the exception and not the rule. This is a fast moving system, limited moisture, and therefore, it's not going to produce heavy accumulations. There may be some sleet mixed with the snow late Friday night/early Saturday in western Kansas, but this primarily looks to be a light snow event. And if you don't like winter precipitation, let's be glad we are not talking ice or ice accumulations.

Measurable snowfall before Thanksgiving doesn't happen very often around here. In fact, in looking at weather records for the last 10 years, it has only happened once. It was back in 2004 with just .5" falling the day before Thanksgiving. It is worth pointing out that in 2007, there was a storm right after Thanksgiving that dumped 3 inches of snow. But this early snowfall goes right along with the early arrival of Arctic air. Temperatures have been stubborn to warm up much, and we are closing in on a week of well below normal temperatures.

Hope you have a safe and warm weekend. Be sure to send us pictures of the snow (Facebook and Twitter is the easiest, but you can also send to stormshots@kwch.com)  Millie and I will probably spend a little time in the snow on Saturday.

Record lows and weekend storm still on the way

At least two record lows were set early Thursday morning. Goodland dropped to -6, breaking the old record of -4 from 1916 and Garden City dropped to 3, breaking the old record of 7 from 1986. We will have a full update on any other records on our newscasts throughout the day. It was hard to imagine not getting out of this cold spell without some kind of record being broken. We are 30-35 degrees colder than what is considered normal for November.

Weekend snowfall forecast

We are still on track to get snow for the weekend. This is a storm we've been watching most of the week and about the only thing that has changed (since Monday) is that the higher amounts will likely setup in central Kansas, rather than over the south. This is not a major winter storm, but some snowpacked spots are certainly possible by Saturday afternoon and evening. 

Timing: Snow begins in western Kansas late Friday night (most likely after midnight) - then spreads east. Snow should begin in central and south central Kansas by 9 or 10 a.m. and will continue moving east.
Amounts: Widespread 2-4 inches. Heaviest (about 4 inches) will likely be from just west of Great Bend to Salina to Abilene and Manhattan
Wind: Some gusts up to 20 mph are possible, which may cause some brief blowing snow/reduced visibility, but definitely not a blizzard.

There will be a second round of snow that develops in eastern Colorado and western Kansas heading into Saturday night. That batch of light snow will move from northwest to southeast, but shouldn't produce much in the way of accumulation. There will be some flurries or light snow still falling at daybreak Sunday, but it will end with some sunshine by Sunday afternoon.

Still looks like we are in for a reinforcing blast of some cold air heading into Monday, which will likely keep temperatures in the 20s. I do think we will see 40+ on thermometers by the middle of next week. And then winter is over.....  (just kidding). Have a good one!

Weekend storm on the way

We've made it to Wednesday and now two days into this cold snap. Have you adjusted to it yet? There are still a lot of complaints trickling in on Facebook and Twitter, but we can't do much about it. So let's see why we are having this cold weather so early in the season and what's coming this way for the weekend.

Hugh high pressure has forced cold air south

By Tuesday, the jet stream should start pulling back to the north & east

One of the biggest things to point out with this pattern is the huge high pressure system up near Alaska that is forcing a lot of the cold air to plunge south. It's what we refer to in meteorology as a "block" and when this sort of thing sets up, they can be very slow to move. So our cold weather isn't going to change much in the near future. It will shift next week and the jet stream will end up sliding east and eventually back north some, so by the middle of the week, temperatures will come back up and be a little closer to normal (which would be 50 degree weather). 

The weekend snow chance is still in the picture. Over the last few days, I've posted a snowfall forecast that showed roughly 4 inches, then yesterday it was down around 2. Looking at the most recent data that's come in, confidence is growing this could be a 2-4 inch snow event for much of central and southern Kansas. 

Timing: Snow would begin in western Kansas around daybreak Saturday and then move east into central Kansas around midday - should taper off Sunday morning

Amount: 2-4 inches looking more likely

Wind: Roughly 10-20 mph (so some blowing snow is possible, but not likely to be a major issue)

Travel impact:  Some snowpacked roads appear likely by Saturday afternoon or evening. Roads will not be impossible to maneuver.

Look for an update on the evening newscasts tonight. I'll break this down in more detail coming up tomorrow here on the blog. Winter storms can create some excitement. I don't know that I would rearrange my weekend travel plans yet unless you really dislike driving in snow. This is not likely to be a major winter storm.

Cold continues; some snow chances too

If you didn't know any better, you might think we just skipped Thanksgiving and Christmas and went straight to January with the way it feels outside this morning (and will feel throughout the day) Wow! It's just as cold here as it is in Barrow, Alaska (temperature 18 with a wind chill of 8) and Anchorage is 33 with a wind chill of 28.

The cold weather is not going to move much through the rest of the week. Maybe the best news to offer up on this cold day is that the wind should back down by late this afternoon and the rest of the week should not have as much wind (most likely under 20 mph for the remainder of the week)

Possible record lows early Thursday. Here are the numbers to tie or beat

If we are going to have a morning with record lows, it should be Thursday morning with clearing skies. Lows could fall below zero in northwest Kansas and single digits are possible elsewhere. I'm posting the record lows for Wednesday and Thursday so you can watch and see over the next few mornings how close we get. This is so unusual for November, but it's not the first cold outbreak this month has seen.

Jet stream continues to setup farther south, which will keep us below normal into the start of next week.

The weather pattern looks to remain active and rather chilly. The main branch of the jet stream will continue to push colder than average weather down across the central and northern US through early next week. There are a couple of systems that will impact the weather heading into the weekend. It doesn't look like they will be anything more than just some light snow chances, and unlikely it will be enough to cause any travel delays or slick conditions. Yesterday, I posted a model forecast for snow over the weekend, highlighting some areas that could get 4 inches or so. The model has trended a little lower with the amounts today, but that's what we were expecting anyway. Still looks like the snow may begin in western Kansas early Saturday, and then move east into the afternoon. It's all going to be very light with an inch or so possible by Sunday morning.

Weekend snowfall potential - mainly Saturday and Saturday night

We will have another system coming through next week that could bring some moisture back to the central Plains. It could be a rain changing to snow scenario by Tuesday night/Wednesday, so will be keeping a close watch on the trends as that systems comes into better view.

In the meantime, stay warm. We could see some 40 to 50 degree weather back in Kansas by Monday of next week.

Ready or not, here comes winter

Example of how the temperatures may look heading through Monday - Tuesday

Good Monday morning!! I think what is about to happen this week gives a lot of credibility to the long range forecast models that we look at in making predictions. This bitter cold snap has been showing up in the data for just over a week, and it's about to arrive on strong north winds later today and tonight. You will know the front has passed when the wind switches and within a couple hours of the fronts passing, the temperature will have dropped about 15-20 degrees.

Consider this for a moment. The normal high on January 1st is 41 and our forecast is about 10-15 degrees colder than that for the middle and end of the week. So this is definitely a big deal for November.

Front will be through much of the state by 10 p.m. Monday

By 6 p.m. tonight, the front should extend from KC to near Wichita down into western Oklahoma. It won't take long for it to get cold and wind chills tonight will easily fall into the single digits and teens for much of the state. Some snow flurries are likely after dark, but the moisture is very limited and it will move quickly, so there's no chance of any accumulations.

Forecast for snow Saturday/Sunday (this is from one computer model)

So if the long range forecast models are getting better, we should have higher confidence in what may develop this weekend and beyond. There is a chance for our first accumulation of snow to move in Saturday and Sunday.  It's not a big storm system, but the first chance of getting snow to stick to the ground is always a big news story. Based on the way things look now, some parts of the state could get an inch or two by Saturday evening or Sunday morning. The ground should have cooled off a lot by the time we get to the weekend, so that's why we think the snow will probably accumulate when it falls Saturday/Sunday.

And this colder than normal weather is likely to last for 10-12 days. We may not get back above 40 degrees until the weekend before or the week of Thanksgiving.

There is a lot to talk about this week with the changes going on in the atmosphere. Thanks for sharing comments and feel free to ask questions. I'll do my best to answer them in a timely manner. Stay warm.

Snow in November & El Nino may be starting

We've had some really nice fall weather this week in Kansas. Fairly typical for early November with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 30s. But as we've been talking about all week long, the big change will be next week when a STRONG cold front drops through on Monday, sending us back into the 30s for highs. It will be cold enough for our first snow. Once the Arctic air gets here, it's not going to move much through the week. Will we get snow?? It's highly unlikely there will be any big snow events next week (week of Nov. 10) but some of the forecast models are showing at least some light snow or flurries may be possible as early as Monday night or Tuesday morning. There could be another chance later in the week, but the way the pattern is shaping up, it doesn't look like we will have any shoveling to do anytime soon.

Snow isn't unusual in November. In fact, much of the state (on average) gets at least some snow this month. You can click on the image to make it larger. Goodland leads the way with an average November snow of over 4 inches.

Water temperatures showing the early stages of a weak El Nino

We've been expecting El Nino to make a return at any time, and it looks like it is just getting started. There is a particular region in the Pacific where the water temperatures (for 5 consecutive months) have to be .5 Celsius warmer than normal in order for it to be classified as "El Nino". And recent indications are we have reached .6 - .7 That would be considered a weak event, and this is not likely to be anything stronger than that. An El Nino event is significant because it generally has an influence on the weather patterns. El Nino winters around here are usually wetter than normal, but not always. That's what makes forecasting complicated, but one to watch as we head into the cold season. There's a chance this El Nino will continue into spring too, but it will likely continue as a weak event. We will of course be watching and if I see something on the horizon that looks like a big impact, I'll be sure to address it here. Have a good day!

Winter temperatures coming soon & awesome sunset pictures

This is a week of back-and-forth temperatures. It's almost funny how one day we are up, next day down, and then back up, and that should continue through the weekend. Our second cold front of the week is coming through today (Wednesday) and then another one will come through Friday. And of course there will be some wind to deal with too. Strongest gusts will be Friday and Saturday.

Big surge of cold air early next week!

It still looks like the bottom is going to drop out early next week. This is something we started talking about Monday, and the forecast models still have a huge chunk of Arctic air diving south. It will definitely be cold enough to snow, but there's no big storm system coming through, so it's unlikely we'll have anything to worry about when it comes to difficult travel weather. But high temperatures in the 30s and 40s may be something we deal with for most of the week. Warm clothes will be a necessity next week.

Because of the election coverage, I didn't have a lot of time to showcase the wonderful sunset pictures that came in Tuesday evening. They were just wonderful. So I'm posting as many of them as I can here. Enjoy. Have a great day. And we are always happy to see your window on the weather world. Uploading them on Facebook and Twitter (@KWCHRoss) is the fastest way to get them to us, but stormshots@kwch.com works too.

Brad Swisher

Bruce Overturf - Abilene

Heather Hardesty - Salina

Jeff Templin - Wichita

Shirley Kroeker

Greta Lagerberg - Salina

Brad Klatt - McPherson

Ed ONeal - Dodge City

November stats & HUGE change coming next week

It's Election Day and fortunately, the weather doesn't look too bad for getting out to vote. Sure, it will be a little on the cool side, but at least the wind has gone down for a little while. November is a month where we start getting some pretty significant cold blasts of air coming down from the north, and we will discuss that in just a second. First, look at some stats for this month.

The average high at the beginning of November is around 63, but by the 30th, our normal high is back in the 40s. The days keep getting shorter as we go from 10 hours and 30 minutes of daylight down to just 9 hours and 45 minutes. This is also a month when we typically get some of our first flakes to fly in Kansas. Average November snowfall in our state is roughly 1-3 inches, depending on location of course.

Setup for next Monday. Jet stream diving south and bringing the coldest air of the season

It may not be cold enough for snow this week, but next week is a different story. There is a HUGE surge of cold air that is coming in November 11. Are you ready? Next week (Monday) could start off with highs 75-80 degrees, but it will come crashing down Monday night. Forecast models have been showing for at least two days now that temperatures will drop significantly by Tuesday (Nov. 11) Highs will struggle to get out of the low 40s. And while it may be cold enough for snow, there doesn't appear to be any snow events in the near future. So spend some time digging for the winter clothes, but leave the snow shovel behind for now. It's unlikely that we will be shoveling next week.

Make sure to vote! Have a good day.

More wind and lots of temperature changes coming this week

Welcome to our first week in November. Hope everyone had a safe and fun Halloween. Rainfall deficits continue to grow for some parts of the state. Wichita is more than 6 inches below on moisture for the year, while Salina is about 2.50 inches below. Goodland has a rainfall deficit of more than 2 inches as well. Moisture would be welcome, but the storm system that is moving through the area today is not going to help out very much. It's not a very strong system and most of the rainfall will end up south in Oklahoma or Arkansas.

If you are tired of the wind, the good news is that we will see a break from it coming up Tuesday. But the rest of the week will likely see more gusty conditions around the area. Some of the strongest wind will likely come Thursday morning and again Friday afternoon.

There will be a bunch of temperature changes this week, but almost none of them will have a chance of producing any moisture. The showers we see today in Kansas (Monday) will not amount to very much (probably not enough to settle the dust in the air) Let's look at the weather pattern and see what's coming up.

First, the system impacting Kansas today is disorganized and the moisture supply is very limited. There is some cooler weather behind it, so we can expect the temperatures to drop about 10 degrees heading into Tuesday.

The middle of the week will see the pattern shift again as the winds are coming from the northwest. This will drive more chilly air down into Kansas by Thursday, but still no hope for moisture.

Early next week, the forecast models are indicating another storm system sliding down the northern Rockies and across the Plains by November 10/11. There will be some much colder air coming with the system, but right now, it's looking less and less likely to produce moisture. If the system were to produce precipitation, there is a chance that could be the first snow for Kansas. The air looks cold enough, but storm systems that come in from the northwest don't normally produce a lot of moisture. It will be one to watch, but right now, it's just a slim chance that it will be anything significant for Kansas. I'll keep you updated through the week. Have a good one.