October outlook for the Plains

Heading into the heart of fall (October) and it's probably my favorite month of the year. The seasonal transition from summer to winter is in full display. Parts of the state can get some of the first snows of the year and temperature changes become more extreme.

We showed this information a few nights ago on the air, but the last three years have had snow in October. The growing season ended rapidly with a big cold snap that happened just days before Halloween. 

First, October averages look like this:

Average first fall frost tends to happen in October:

October rainfall: We are getting some nice rain heading into the start of the new month and I think there's a decent chance the month (as a whole) could be slightly wetter than normal. Doesn't take much because our average rain is only a couple of inches in much of the state anyway. Here's the latest 30 day outlook for precipitation.

I think October 2021 will tend to be a little warmer than normal, so we may not get that early snow that the last three years have had. 

Rainy setup - unsettled for days

As we wrap up an unbelievably warm month of September across the state, our focus is shifting to a more eventful and cooler stretch coming up. Much of the state will likely end up with a top 10 warmest Septembers on record. 

Wichita:

Dodge City:

Rain is coming: Cold front arrives Wednesday night should lead to the most widespread rain since the beginning of the month. Rain gets going first in western Kansas before heading east Thursday morning. This stuff will be incredibly slow to move along. I think western Kansas should be expecting .25"-.50" Wednesday night (some isolated areas may get a bit more).

Thursday - Saturday: The focus for rain will be central and eastern Kansas Thursday afternoon and Friday. 

I don't think the rain on Friday will amount to very much, if we get much at all. However, look at the rain back in Oklahoma and Texas (near Amarillo). As soon as the main "low" from New Mexico kicks out going into Saturday, we should have another nice round of rain coming across the region.

Forecast rain amounts from Wednesday - Saturday:

Average rainfall in October isn't usually more than a few inches at best, but we may be looking at more rain in the first and second weeks of the upcoming month. The jet stream looks to stay fairly active for awhile. The map below reflects that with above normal rain (for the 7 day period) across the Plains.

Have a great day and get ready for some rain. 

Here's the scoop on rain for Kansas

We are essentially in a holding pattern right now when it comes to rain. Aside from some of the soaking moisture at the beginning of the month, there hasn't been much to speak of since then (at least on a statewide scale).

As of this writing (Thursday), much of the state has gone at least a week without any measurable moisture. That's not unusual, but with much of the state already below normal on rain for the year and dealing with drought, it would be helpful to have some rain in the near future.

It looks like by the time rain moves back to the Plains, we will have had one of the longest dry stretches throughout all of 2021. The map shown below is rain (compared to normal) for the last 14 days. The yellow colors indicate 1-2" below, while the west is mainly .50-1" below.

Latest drought map (released Thursday) looks like this:

A couple of notes about what we are seeing for next week. There's a weak system that will track toward Kansas around the middle of the week. If the forecast holds, that low pressure system could reach the Plains and wobble around for a few days, producing scattered rains. It's early to predict exact locations and how much, but the recent trends in the models suggest increasing chances later in the week. We should also see things cool a bit by then too. 

The map posted is just one snapshot in time for Wednesday. You can see the showers stretch from Texas into the central and northern US. A cloudy/damp period may unfold for Kansas if we can get these features to setup in the right areas. Until then, it's sunny and dry.

Whats an "atmospheric block" & why is it a problem?

It is feeling like fall (finally) around Kansas and although we've been able to change up our temperatures a bit, we are not going to be change the dry pattern for awhile. It's something we will be stuck with for several more days. What's going on?

It's called a "block" in the pattern and here's how it works. You have a "high" and "low" pressure system stacked on top of one another, essentially backing everything up. It doesn't allow new systems from the west to move east, so you're basically stuck with what you've got. Until either the high or low weakens enough to clear the area, you are basically stuck. This particular setup is what we call a "rex block", but there are other variations.

Another kind of block is called an "omega" block, shaped like the Greek alphabet letter.

The important part of this block is that we aren't going to see any dramatic shifts in our weather to finish off September. Dry weather is not going away soon and it may be another two weeks before chances of rain show up in the Plains. Just look at the map below - that's the precipitation forecast for the next 10 days. 

Another cold front will arrive on Friday - but no rain with it either. Temperatures may cool down slightly, but it will not be as cool as what Kansas is experiencing now.

As we finish off the month of September, it does appear to be warmer than normal. From Texas to the US/Canada border, it will be quite warm with highs mostly in the 80s. Looks like fall will be on hold yet again.

 Have a great day. I'll continue to dig into the data and see when rain might be coming back and post some maps later this week.

Another round of heat followed by - snow? What?

Halfway through September and it's been a warm one so far. If the month ended today, this would end up being a top 10 warmest on record for parts of the state.

Look at the stats

• Wichita - tied 3rd warmest (avg. temperature 78.5°)
• Goodland - warmest (avg. temperature 74.8°)
• Dodge City - warmest (avg. temperature 78.3°)

And we are headed for another mini heat wave (for September anyway) to end the week and go right into the weekend. This one will not be nearly as intense as the previous one (when we had highs hitting 100°). One wouldn't expect that now that its mid-September. The heat expands once again across the Plains states and right into the upper Midwest. Many areas will be at least 10 above normal.

A STRONG cold front should be pushing this way early next week (Monday), and our first good taste of fall will follow. Look at temperatures back in the Rockies and the northern Plains. Afternoon temperatures on Tuesday will be 50s and 60s. It's a big switch from what we've had lately and the coolest air yet.

It may even be accompanied by SNOW for areas west of Denver. This will likely end up being for elevations of 10,000 feet or higher, but a sure sign of the changing seasons. 

When will we get our next chance for storms?

This Friday night, a few could develop north of I70, but it's probably not going to be anything more than some scattered storms - and not much in the rain gauge. 

Next Tuesday - when the strong front starts barging through, areas along and east of I-135 should have the best chances. It could change if the front speeds up or slows down, but in recent days, models are locking in on rain chances for the eastern 1/3 of the state.

Have a great day.

Hurricane turns to a snowstorm; rain comes back next week

One of the last things we think about when it comes to hurricanes is SNOW. The two just don't go together because the dynamics of the storm and obviously, the temperatures. However, what's left of Hurricane Larry is about to turn into a snowstorm - in Greenland!

Look at the location of Larry just northeast of Newfoundland. The big yellow blob shows the tropical rainfall still occurring on the northeast quadrant of the system.

Saturday afternoon, there is still evidence of the storm just off the coast of Greenland, and look at the developing snow as the moisture goes from the water to the coast. It instantly switches over.

Early Sunday, there is still heavy snow occurring because of the tropical system. 

Rain for the Plains:

The next cold front to bring September weather back to Kansas arrives Tuesday. We should have a pretty good chance of developing rain around the state, but heaviest sure looks like it will be central and eastern areas. I would expect under .50" for the western half of the state, with .50-1"+ farther east.

And it's going to cool down - at least briefly anyway. We've had a hard time getting fall to stick around for more than a day or two, and I expect that may be the case for the rest of September. Just take a look at the last full week of the month. Most models trend toward warmer (on average), so any cool spell is likely going to be brief.

Triple digit heat threatens while we wait for more rain

The cooler, midweek weather is just a tease on fall. You could say it's a little cruel what Mother Nature is doing to us, but summer is going to fight back and win down the stretch. One variable in all of this is the Kansas State Fair begins Friday, and it seems like we have some hot, some cold, and at least one day during the 10 day event where it rains. Let's see how that holds up this year.

Highs have to be near 100 to have a chance at setting records for Fridays date. Unfortunately, that's just where we will end up later this week.

Even if we see 100s later this week, it will NOT set records for "latest triple digits" in a season. See the stats for yourself. We would need to have 100s in late September or October to really threaten those records.

Why so hot so late:

It's all about the location of the high pressure in the upper atmosphere. It refuses to park itself anywhere else but near us, so that means more heat with no chance of rain through the weekend.

Still watching the Gulf of Mexico:

It's looking more likely that a major storm is NOT going to form in the gulf, but we could have a tropical storm somewhere in the western Gulf by the weekend. Even if this does turn out to be something, nearly all of the rain will end up right along the coast with little to no chance it can move this way.

Next chance for rain in Kansas: This should be coming Tuesday night/Wednesday next week. A front will enter the area and bring a round of rain to a good portion of the Plains. I don't think this will be nearly as heavy as the Labor Day weekend event turned out, but at least the chances will return for areas that are still dry.

Have a great day.

Soak up the rain - pattern shift is on the horizon

We have a really good chance of getting more widespread rainfall heading into Friday night and Saturday morning. The feature that is going to set it all of is coming from Colorado, and as this passes across Kansas and Nebraska, we should see a fairly widespread area of storms. If you haven't had any rain yet, there's still hope yet. Most of the heavy stuff will be focused right over Kansas through Saturday morning.

6pm Friday:

1am Saturday:

7am Saturday:

 

Get all the rain you can because what we are seeing down the stretch is a pattern shift that brings about a period of dry weather. (See the map below) If the high pressure "heat dome" builds back toward Kansas around September 8/9 (which looks very possible), this is going to force us back into the 90s for at least a couple of days. It's not that uncommon, but also not overly popular when you get into September and are ready for fall weather. 

Temperature outlook:

Something to watch during the first weekend of the state fair:

Models are suggesting another tropical system will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico. We don't know if it will turn into anything, but it does appear that the Gulf coast will need to be on alert yet again in the second weekend of the month. Does the system have a chance of moving toward Kansas? Still to early to say, but any tropical system that comes to our area usually tracks out of the western Gulf.