A June preview

After a busy end to the month of May with severe storms, it is time to preview June. Kids are on summer break, the Kansas wheat crop is ripening, and we are just weeks away from the official start to summer. Here's a brief recap of where we have been:

• January - warmer than normal
• February - record setting cold
• March - warmer than normal
• April - cooler than normal - mainly dry
• May - cooler than normal - more widespread rains

We will add a little more rain to monthly totals before all is said and done, and most of us go into June in decent shape when it comes to moisture. The latest drought map still has south central and southwest Kansas "abnormally dry", but a few more good rains could wipe that out. Will it happen?

June normals look like this:

June rainfall (over the 30 day period) has reason to believe moisture will continue to move this way. Early signs are pointing toward a drier than normal start to June, but that doesn't look like it will hold for very long. We may continue to have an active setup across the western half of the country, which would keep Kansas in the running for rains.

Slightly cooler than normal temperatures for the central and southern Plains. This would be the 3rd month in a row where average temperatures stayed below normal. I'm not exactly sure which part of June will be the "coolest". It may turn out to be a blend of early June and mid June.  There are hints of a very warm end to the month if we see a high pressure pattern setting up across the central/southern Plains. That would be perfect timing for the wheat harvest if it does materialize.

Have a great day and thanks for spending a few minutes checking out the blog.

Tornado count is up, but this isn't normal

This week has been a little busier than most weeks and it is finally feeling like typical May in Kansas. One of the first questions that comes up in our newsroom is "how many tornadoes did we have today/this week". It is usually a difficult question because there is a big difference between "reports" and "actual tornadoes". On the smaller tornadoes, how long was it on the ground before a new tornado developed? Was it all the same tornado? It can be a little messy. We believe there were at least 7 tornadoes that occurred Monday evening in western Kansas. 

Consider May 2020 (which was also VERY slow for tornadoes) had:

• 11 tornadoes (5 EF0, 6 EF unknown)

Consider May 2019:

• 68 tornadoes (1 EF4, 1 EF3, 9 EF2, 21 EF1, 36 EF unknown)

There will be chances of tornadoes Wednesday and Thursday, so please stay alert. However, as the end of this active stretch draws to a close, I still think we will end up with a record low number of tornadoes for the month. It's been really strange the last few years.

A couple more rounds of storms, and then a break:

The forecast models have been messy lately (which has made it tough to pin down when our highest rain chances would be), but now we are feeling more confident in what should play out. 

Wednesday:

 

Warmer air pushing back to the north will set off thunderstorms across northern Kansas and Nebraska. There should be a fairly big area of storms riding the state line, and then gradually turning southeast into the overnight. This kind of setup will favor a bunch of high wind gusts, maybe over 70 mph in places. If you are north of a line from Scott City to Hays to Salina, be on guard for the increased threat of severe weather. And this will go well into the night.

Leftover from Wednesday is an important factor for Thursday:

Rain cooled air may be moving across south central Kansas late Thursday morning or early afternoon. This may help to shove the bigger storms south of the Turnpike by the afternoon, but we are still going to have a severe threat in the area. It is highly likely that by midnight, most if not all of the severe weather will be in Oklahoma of far southeast Kansas. 

What about all this rain you might be hearing about for the weekend?

The pattern will favor storm chances on the High Plains of eastern Colorado that could drift out into western Kansas into the overnight hours. Chances should fade away as they try to move to the east, so the entire holiday weekend won't be lost to thunderstorms.

I'm working on putting up a June outlook, which will be coming this weekend. Stay safe out there as we wait for break in the severe weather, which for many is coming soon. 

Are we about to have another rainy/stormy week?

Our latest spell of rainy/stormy weather is winding down for the time being and it's probably okay that it does as we have some areas that need a breather. Fortunately, major flooding has been limited to a couple of areas in Kansas, but it was bad enough. Natoma (in Osborne county) was hit last weekend and there were some roads out near Garden City that were washed out. 

Here's how the map looks after the last 14 days of rain.

And now the updated drought map looks like this:

Next week looks busy... again. There will be some excited for the potential of more storms, while others would be okay with some drier weather for now. Keep this in mind, if we load up our soils with water now, it lessens the chance of major, prolonged heat waves here in about 30-45 days. Heavy rains (as we have already experienced) can do damage and create some real problems. But the upside is greener grass and vegetation with a stronger likelihood of a moderate summer. 

Setup next week:

 

We will most likely have another low pressure system in the west for a good part of the week. At the same time (by Tuesday/Wednesday), a front may stop over the Plains for a couple of days. The high octane Gulf moisture will still be around, and that turns up the chances for more rain (and heavy rain) as we roll through the week. Severe weather chances will most likely come back too, with a good dose of it coming at night (although timing could change some)

How much rain?

Models have some agreement that another widespread 1-3" (maybe more) could come through the Plains from Tuesday - Friday. Please watch carefully, especially if you had a bunch of rain already. This might be a problem for some creeks and flood prone areas. As for which days might have severe storms, it looks like Tuesday night and maybe again Thursday/Friday. We may not know too much until time is closer. 

Early summer predictions:

There are some "hints" at what we may have for weather this summer. If you would've asked me two months ago, I would've said hot and bone dry. However, in keeping up with the trends and patterns as of late, there's reason to hope for nice rains in June, which may temper the heat as we move through July. Ocean temperatures resemble summers when it has been BRUTALLY hot around Kansas, but I don't think we are headed for an endless string of 100s. Let's hope!

Still more rain & time to check the eclipse forecast

We had concerns late last week about going from drought to flooding and it's showing up in a handful of places. Western Kansas has been on the receiving end of tremendous spring rains to help ease drought. While it is not over yet, a steady diet of rain will continue to move toward western Kansas throughout the remainder of May. 

Meanwhile farther east, there have been some really nice rains, but it also hasn't covered very many areas. Just look at the examples below and consider for a moment how close Hutch and Pretty Prairie are geographically. There's not much distance between Haysville and Viola, but yet a big difference in total rain.

Here is a regional map showing rain in the last seven days across Kansas and surrounding areas. It is very nice to see the big rains across western Kansas heading into summer. But notice how north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas still have pockets of lower rain totals. Those areas will have a better chance of rain through midweek.

What's the trigger this week:

There's a slow moving low coming up from the desert southwest that's setting off the storm chances today. Rain (as it develops) is not going to move very fast because the winds at roughly 20,000 feet are only 10-25 mph. That's just incredible in mid-late May. 

Generally speaking, it looks like much of the area could be in the running for another 1-2 inches of rain (before the day is over Thursday)

As we move closer to Thursday/Friday, the upper low coming through the Plains weakens enough to not be much of a threat any longer. A little drier setup seems reasonable for our second to last weekend in May. 

Look to the lunar eclipse next week?

 

There will be a total lunar eclipse next Wednesday morning. The moon will just be hitting totality before it sets in the morning, so your window of opportunity for viewing is brief. Totality begins at 6:14 and for a good part of the area, the moon will go down around 6:17-6:20ish. 

As of this writing, our viewing may not be ideal. A chance for thunderstorms is in the forecast heading into Tuesday night, and any leftover clouds will hamper our chances. 

From drought to flooding?

Rainfall in Kansas lately has been pretty strange acting, with a handful of places getting a bunch, and 5 miles down the road, maybe nothing at all. The new drought map just released this morning (Thursday) continues to show an expanding area across south central and now central Kansas. 

The map below is "percent of normal rain" over the last two weeks, and you get a sense of just how localized the big rains have been. There's an area near Salina, a pocket west of Great Bend, and some north and west of Garden City. Other than that, it's very dry. The red shades are "10% of normal rain" with yellow/orange roughly "50% of normal"

 

We will be in a setup where the atmosphere won't change too much day to day. Humidity will be up, a series of small (but important) pieces of energy will kick out of the Rockies and High Plains and setoff thunderstorms. What makes this such a tough forecast is the setup each night will be dictated by what happens the previous night. That being said, as meteorologist we recognize this pattern as being one that should favor heavy rain with severe weather being a lower threat. 

Thu. Night/early Friday:

This first round is headed for northern Kansas to start, then rain goes southeast and begins to fade Friday morning. Areas east of I-135 will have the highest chances.

Friday night/early Saturday:

 

Severe chance is low, but given a stalled front somewhere in Kansas, we anticipate more thunderstorms developing and tracking east with potential of heavy rain. This could be a statewide chance for rain, unless storms from 24 hours prior mess something up. 

Saturday night/early Sunday:

 

Are you noticing a pattern here - nighttime and early morning chances. I would anticipate the potential being higher over the southern 1/2 of Kansas (closer to the actual stalled front). Once again, a low end severe threat. 

Sunday night:

This round of rain will most likely be focused southwest and south central Kansas, with areas farther north (of I-70 at least) not likely getting very much. Storms have a tendency to force fronts farther south when they happen in successive rounds. That means by the time we get to Monday & Tuesday, most of the rain will be in Oklahoma. 

Early next week:

The focus turns to an approaching low pressure arriving from the west - this will serve as yet another trigger for rain. I would (at this point in time) say the chance is pretty equal for any area of the state to get rain. It could be west or east, but most of us will get a shot at rain. 

It's a pretty busy pattern, but considering heavy rain is our biggest threat in the next 4-5 days and it's mid-May, I'd say we are doing fine. Anyone that has lived around here for awhile knows this could be a rough period of time, but the setup just isn't there for major severe weather. 

Advertised rains are finally in sight

We've been advertising "wetter than normal" on this blog and although we've made the turn to an active pattern, there's still so many areas of the state waiting on moisture. The winter wheat (at least in south central Kansas) has a head and the grain is filling. This can be such a critical time for it to get some rain, and I'm hopeful that within the next week, most (if not all) of Kansas will have had at least .50" or an inch of rain. 

Rains today (Tuesday) will continue in Kansas with the heaviest winding up in the western half. 

We get a midweek break, so Wednesday and most of Thursday looks pretty tame. However, starting Thursday night and continuing into the first half of next week, more rain and thunder should be coming.

Nighttime storms seem most probable as we hit the end of the week and go into the weekend. This will be a combination of a low pressure coming from the west AND a front setting up in the area. 

Let's preview some different time periods down the road:

Thursday night:

 

There's some question as to how far south storms will go, but safe to say areas along and north of I-70 have some of the better chances here.

Friday night: Severe chances are low at best. The setup might favor some small hail and brief gusty winds, but it's not a strong signal for severe weather.

Saturday night:

Sunday night:

Early next week:

The main low pressure (at 15,000-20,000 feet) will be on the move toward the Plains. This should serve as a stronger signal for more rain as we get some help from the upper atmosphere involved.

Later this week I'll post a rainfall forecast map so you can see just how much rain different parts of the state may receive. In the meantime, we will hopefully get some of the specifics worked out so we can cast more confidence on timing of storms at the end of this week.

A new drought map was released late last week showing southern Kansas back in "abnormally dry" while the west is still working to diminish drought (still in "moderate" classification). hopefully the next week will ease this even more.

Severe potential Saturday - plus, the February version in May

Severe thunderstorms are still looking like a good possibility on Saturday, but not for all areas of the state. The focus continues to look like central, south central, and areas east of the Flint Hills. We haven't had that many severe setups to look at this spring, which is saying something when you are reaching the peak of the season here soon.

Saturday setup:

Ingredients are lining up to have a threat of some wind, hail, and an isolated tornado. If you look at the map above, the arrows indicate potential initiation spots in the afternoon. The area around Hays, Russell, Great Bend is of particular interest because it's closer to the low pressure system itself. However, as we've talked about before on this blog, if even one ingredient is missing, it can sure change a forecast. We have high confidence that storms will form, but confidence drops when it comes to figuring out the severity. There will be plenty of humidity, warm air, and wind, but what might be limiting the severe threat is warmer air about 6,000-7,000 feet off the ground. Nonetheless, you'll want to check back for other updates as we head into the weekend. 

February comes back in May:

Remember the brutally cold snap we had in mid February? Well, you could say that the May version is coming next week. It's only around for 2 or 3 days, but we are once again looking at a string of cooler than average weather. This is what follows our weekend storm chances. It's not record cold, but highs in the 50s and 60s look like a good bet through at least the middle of the week. That will dampen the hail and wind threats for the Plains.

More rain is coming - standby:

There's still reason to be optimistic for more rain as May continues. Drought has expanded because April wasn't that helpful for moisture. We are expecting more active weather into the western US soon, which will put the Plains in the running for thunderstorms. If you take a look at the period of May 15-20, much of Kansas is forecast to receive above normal moisture. What does that actually mean? I would say there's strong potential of at least 1-2 inches, perhaps more if the approaching features slow down and stay for more than just 12 or 24 hours. 

Plenty of active weather ahead

Early May is here and this is usually the month where severe weather season peaks. Here's a map of all of the tornado watches issued across the country and Kansas is still waiting on the first one of the year. Can you believe it? We just marked the 22nd anniversary of the Haysville tornado, and today (May 4th) is the 14th anniversary of Greensburg. 

We do have a chance for some rain coming Wednesday, but lower humidity levels will keep storms from reaching any strong or severe thresholds. It all comes back to the dew points, and when they are down in the 30s and 40s, you very rarely get severe storms out of that AND rainfall amounts tend to be lower too. Humidity is such a key.

This coming weekend & beyond:

A period of more active weather looks to return with several days of potential storms. One of the first signs is the developing low pressure in the upper atmosphere that sets up west of the Rockies. 

One of the first rounds of rain will probably come Friday (morning and night) as warmer air/more humid air pushes back north. Depending on how soon the morning rain clears, that may dictate what sets up for the afternoon. Potential is there for more hail and wind storms going into Friday night. 

Best chance for severe:

This would be Saturday night with a cold front encountering some very warm air across central and eastern Kansas. At this time, wind and hail would be the threats once storms get going. Again, specific details this many days out are hard to pin down, but keep this time frame in mind when looking ahead to Mother's Day weekend. I would expect this might be a 7pm-2am window for the severe weather. 

Mother's Day: Clouds and cooler - but should be dry. Much of Kansas will be 10-20° below normal highs in the 70s.

More chances coming early next week:

The main storm west of the Rockies should kick on to the east early next week, potentially setting off more rain. .

Rainfall outlook:

 

Over the course of the next 10 days, here's a snapshot of what our total rainfall might look like around the Plains. Remember, it is just a model and much can change, but hopefully this will help some of us from getting discouraged due to the lack of soaking rains lately.