Thursday, May 28, 2015

Rain totals, more coming & hurricane outlook 2015

More rain in places that just don't need any more right now. Here are the totals through 7 a.m. Thursday:
Dodge City: 1.16"
Salina: 0.89"
Garden City: 0.76"
Hutch: 0.73"
Wichita: 0.51"
Jabara Airport: 0.40"
Great Bend: 0.33"
Winfield: 0.21"
Elkhart: 0.12"
Liberal: 0.05"
Medicine Lodge: 0.04"
Goodland: 0.03"
Russell: 0.03"
Newton: 0.02"
Hays: 0.01"

More rain is coming and there could be at least two more rounds of heavy rainfall between now and Saturday morning. One round is coming through Thursday night and early Friday. Then with a cold front coming through Friday afternoon and evening, we can expect more rain and storms to develop. The chance for severe weather should drop off considerably after today (Thursday)
The official 2015 hurricane forecast came out Wednesday. It's calling for another very quiet season across the Atlantic and it's mainly tied to the El Nino influence. How does El Nino keep the hurricanes at bay? First, let's recap what El Nino is. It's the unseasonably warm water off the equator in the Pacific Ocean, and this warm water does have some impact on the weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere. This phenomenon has resulted in some very heavy rains across the central and southern Plains, and now moving into hurricane season, will hopefully work to keep the hurricanes away.

El Nino has a tendency to increase the wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction as you move higher in the sky. Stronger winds higher up in the atmosphere proves to be detrimental to hurricane formation. Across the Atlantic Basin, forecasts are calling for more wind aloft, which should keep the number of tropical systems at a minimum. The last major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) to hit the US was Wilma back in October of 2005.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Wet and stormy May about to transition

Jamie Blanton - El Dorado hail Tuesday evening
Breah Allmon - McPherson sunset (Tuesday)
What a month this has been with storm after storm, flooding, tornadoes, hail, etc. Wichita has had measurable rain on 15 of the 26 days in May (so far) with Dodge City having 13 wet days out of the 26.

The stormy pattern continues for the rest of the week. The active southwest branch of the jet stream has been pushing storm system after storm system across the central and southern US. Part of this is tied in with El Nino. The drought has been erased for north central and eastern Kansas, but the west continues with moderate drought. 
Wed-Fri: Chances for showers and storms will continue across Kansas with some pockets of heavy rainfall. Some severe weather is possible on an isolated basis, especially across western Kansas. 

Change coming!!! Once we get to the weekend, a cold front will push through and shove the moisture and rain to the south and east. It's still not looking too good for flood ravaged areas of Oklahoma and Texas, but in Kansas, conditions will be drying out. The weather pattern will also change and go from a southwest storm track back to an area of high pressure over the Rockies. So the way things are looking, the weekend and most of next week should be storm free. We might have a few spotty storms into western Kansas around midweek, but the widespread, heavy rains look to hold off for awhile.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Rainfall amounts (ending at 7 a.m. Tuesday)

So much of the state is dealing with flooding, but this picture sent to me shows where there is room for more rain... Wilson Lake. Much of the state could benefit from 3 or 4 weeks of dry weather, but the pattern is relentless and more rain is on the way for Wednesday (across the west) and just about anywhere heading into Thursday and Friday.
Wilson Lake - courtesy Don Panzer

Hutch: 0.77"
Wichita: 0.56"
Salina: 0.35"
Great Bend: 0.32"
Jabara Airport: 0.31"
Coffeyville: 0.25"
Newton: 0.22"
Winfield: 0.07"
Concordia: 0.11"
Dodge City: 0.03"
Russell: 0.01"

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