Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Not 1, Not 2, but....

Four different storms could be impacting Kansas over the next 10-12 days! Yes, that's what we will be focusing on as we finish off March and head into early April. We have to get something out of these passing systems, or the drought is going to be expanding and covering much of the state.

I'll walk you through what I'm seeing over the next 10 days.

Storm #1: There's a very small chance for an isolated severe storm Thursday evening across western Kansas. A wind gust up to 60 mph is possible along with some brief hail, but this window of opportunity for severe weather is likely just a few hours. Once we get to sunset, that will likely be the end of the stronger storms.

Rainfall amounts will mostly be .25" or less, but far northwest Kansas (around Goodland and Colby) could get more (around .50") AND areas east of the Flint Hills will likely see some .50-1".

Storm #2: The severe chance with this particular event is very low. This system should arrive toward the end of the weekend with rain expected over the southern half of the state. We may not get much moisture out of this system either, but it will be a feature to watch later on in the weekend.

Storm #3: Arriving next Tuesday/Wednesday, this will be a storm that has the potential of producing some nice rains around the area. Depending on the track and how much Gulf moisture it can intercept, we will see how things pan out for the central Plains. But some of the models are hinting at some .50-1" amounts during the middle of next week (March 28-29)

Finally, Storm #4: If the models are correct, March may go out like a tame lion. What might be the last in a series of storms will be arriving right around the end of the month. There are indications of heavier rains with this storm, but it's way too early to know exactly what will take place. It's still more than a week away and a storm that isn't even reality yet.

The most important takeaway here is that IF you don't get the amount of rain you were hoping for on Thursday or Friday (of this week), don't be too upset. We have several more chances heading our way, and after waiting more than 2 months, I'd say we are overdue. 

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Some strong storms possible soon

The chance for scattered storms is still in the forecast later this week. Timing, strength, and amounts of precipitation are coming into better focus now that we are getting closer.

There will be very little rain between now and Thursday early afternoon. Any precipitation that does develop will be little more than some drizzle or a quick passing shower. 

Thursday -  We still expect thunderstorms to develop across western Kansas into the evening hours (most likely after 6 p.m.) Chances for severe weather are pretty slim, but for a couple of hours we might see a few storms produce some hail and gusty winds. Best chances for any hail at all will be west of a Hays to Dodge City line. As the storms move east, they will weaken quickly.

Rainfall amounts - Still doesn't look like Kansas will get much out of this first storm coming through. In most cases, it will be under .25" (unless you get caught under a thunderstorms, then it might be heavier)

But we have some other chances coming late in the weekend and next week too. Try to not get disheartened by the lack of rain at the end of the week. We are just at the start of what will likely be an active patter for the remainder of March and into early April.

Monday, March 20, 2017

Stormy pattern returns later this week

Welcome to Monday and to SPRING!! After a rather uneventful winter with record low snowfall for parts of Kansas, we move on to the next season and start preparing the next weather change.

Most of us had an early taste of summer yesterday. Crazy to see 90° weather on the last day of winter and in March, but then again, everything has been out of whack lately. There were a handful of records tied or broken, and we might see a few of them tied again today.

Much cooler tomorrow (Tuesday) - 
Temperatures are going to be coming back down in a big way for Tuesday/Wednesday. It's not bitterly cold or Arctic air (that's over with now), but we should fall below normal for highs. Most of us will see 50s through midweek.

Stormy pattern later this week -
So many requests for rain and as we head into the second half of the week, the pattern FINALLY changes. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be back as early as Thursday. While the setup could bring a few severe storms to Kansas, it looks more likely for severe storms south of Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas. Once the storms forms in western Kansas Thursday evening, they will quickly race east into the night. And that's a problem - the storms don't stick around long enough to produce any substantial moisture. The forecast models are in pretty good agreement that amounts will be on the lower end.

Bottom line is that the first storm system coming later this week isn't likely to produce much more than some .25-.5" amounts. There will be at least 2 more systems coming, and hopefully, we will get rain. Drought conditions continue to expand across many areas of the state. 

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