Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Stormy setup the rest of the week

Kansas is in the perfect spot to have several rounds of storms coming up the next several days. The biggest danger appears to be the threat of some heavier rainfall that could cause some flooding. I don't think we will see that many hail and/or wind storms.

Here's why we can't break out of the stormy stretch. The winds at roughly 20,000 feet above us are blowing right along the front (parallel), so it can't move much in either direction. And this leads to round after round of rainfall. 

European Model forecast for rain
GFS (American model) forecast for rain
Forecast model data continues to show central and eastern Kansas will get the heaviest rains. This data has changed from recent days, but between now and Saturday morning, several locations could get 1-2" of rain. 

Looking ahead to the start of next week:
Temperatures: Low 80s for highs
Humidity: High
Rain chances: Very low

Be sure to check in later this week as we look ahead to the holiday weekend forecast.

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Next chance for storms/tropics/La Nina watch

Welcome to Tuesday. We are in our final full week of August and we've heard so many wonderful comments about the weather lately. Most of the state is in good shape with moisture and without the torturous humidity, it's been nice to be outside.

We do have a front coming into the area again this week. It will arrive Wednesday, so expect the storm chance to increase. I don't think the setup is as favorable for the flooding rains that some had Friday evening. It was just incredible seeing 4-5 inches per hour with storms in south central Kansas Friday night. Most of the models are showing "scattered" storms, so one here and one there. Severe weather chances are low.

The front will be slow moving, so that's why we see the chances for some rain lingering into Thursday. However, the rain chances on Thursday are only for some areas of southern Kansas, and even then, it shouldn't be much.

Still looks like much cooler weather will be here for some Wednesday - everyone by Thursday.

We are just weeks away from the peak of hurricane season. It's beginning to get active now with Tropical Storm Gaston and Hermine could be developing soon. Both storms are rather far away from land right now. If one of these storms is going to impact land, it would be Hermine because Gaston is likely to stay out over open waters.

Last year, we spent a great deal of time talking about El Nino. This year as we head into fall, we are under "La Nina watch". Remember, El Nino and La Nina are not storms. It is a warming/cooling of the ocean water that influences the storm track. Take a look at the recent sea surface temperatures. 

Friday, August 19, 2016

Cooler weather coming in - stormy pattern sets up

Typically, we don't get our first, fall cold front until we get into the month of September. But this year, it's arriving a few weeks early. We won't set any records, but this will feel so out of place when you consider what the actual date is.

Severe Threat:
We do have a chance for some severe storms today. The main threat will be some strong winds, small hail, and lightning of course. Storms will move east/southeast, and I think the severe threat will basically be over by midnight (if not before) It's possible we could see some one inch amounts in central or eastern Kansas, but most areas should get less than that (and it might even be less than .25 for western Kansas)

This blast of cool air is coming straight down from Canada, which also means our air will dry out drastically. Good bye humidity... at least for a few days.

Once we get passed this fall-like weekend, it does warm up a little next week, but mid and upper 80s is still a little cooler than normal. It's not a huge storm for next week, but some active weather coming in from the desert Southwest will lead to more chances for rain, beginning on Tuesday, but ramping up even more by Wednesday/Thursday. I don't think we are looking at severe storms, but some heavy rainfall looks very possible because once again, we will be dealing with a slow moving front by Wednesday. AND... more cool weather coming to Kansas toward the end of next week. Highs in the upper 70s and low 80s look to be on the way for the end of the week. Summer is slipping away.

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