Friday, March 15, 2024

Severe weather thoughts - April rain coming

The season is here and after two EF2 tornadoes in northeast Kansas, our severe weather special comes at a good time while we are gearing up for the season. It will air Saturday night at 10:35 (KWCH), and then you can also catch it online.

I was tasked with coming up with a severe weather outlook. These are really hard to do because if your house ends up getting hit, you'll remember the season as "bad". And then there's the question, what makes the season bad? Is it 50 tornadoes, 100, etc.? The average for Kansas in a season is around 80. Since 2000, here's are the years where the tornado count has been higher than average:

Out of the 14 years (since 2000), there are 4 years where El Nino was occurring in the Pacific. That was 2019, 2016, 2015, 2010. 

Here's what we are in now:

Notice the orange color within the highlighted box. That's water that is about 1.4°C above average, making this an El Nino spring season. But you also have to look just outside of that highlighted area and see the "cooler" water showing up - that's the oncoming La Nina that we will be talking about very soon (maybe as soon as this summer). If we take this one step further and consider the years where El Nino was going away and La Nina was coming on, here's what we find:

There is NOT necessarily a correlation to a high number of tornadoes when El Nino is going away and La Nina is coming on. The El Nino in 1998 was particularly strong, and it was quickly replaced with a La Nina, and that year ended up with slightly fewer than average tornadoes. 


El Nino has been a helpful driver of more rain/snow for the Plains this winter, but it hasn't completely eliminated the drought yet. Take a look at what El Nino springs have looked like in years past - the purple is good - it means above average moisture. Let's look at 2015, 2016, 2019:+

May 2015:


May 2016:


May 2019:

I'm not saying it's a guarantee, but there are many more cases of "wet" springs with El Nino than dry ones, so I think odds are in our favor that this upcoming spring will be at least average moisture, but for many areas, it should be wetter than average. See the early April rainfall outlook at the end of this post.


Rain is coming!!
The 3rd full week of March (18-22) doesn't look that promising, but once we get beyond that timeframe, odds look better for moisture. Here's a 30 day preview of March 24-April 24:

And for the entire month of April, one set of model data looks like this:

I know it's just one model, but we've been expecting a turn toward some wetter conditions for the central US, and I believe we are just getting there. What should be a continual march of low pressure systems in from the West should begin soon and continue deep into April. Will this be the uptick in severe weather? Stay tuned.

Friday, March 8, 2024

A mix of more active and dry weather ahead

We will have another chance of some active weather coming at the end of our second week of March, but that might be short lived before it dries out again. 

The first drought map out in March looks like this (remember it doesn't take into account rain from the recent system). Sadly, we are moving in the wrong direction. We are back up to 59% in drought - which is up from 52% the previous week.

The big system shaping up around March 14/15 will be slow moving, and if we can get this to position in just the right place, it might mean more beneficial rain. The upper low will try to separate from the main flow of air aloft, and if it succeeds in doing that, it will wobble around for many days. That's something to watch for just days from now. As of this writing, the low will form and stall somewhere near the 4 Corners area - that's not a bad spot for it to be, but if it ends up farther west, we are in trouble.


This is a complex scenario because the rain could split and go around Kansas. I just think we should keep expectations low at this stage because a front may shove the higher humidity east of Kansas, and we'd be left with a whole bunch of nothing. We need to see where the upper low will establish itself.

Rainfall compared to average - Ending March 20:


We may hit a drier spell in the 3rd full week of the month, but I wouldn't let this be too alarming considering everything I've look at suggests more moisture should find its way back to the region late in the month.


Early April Rainfall:


Temperatures:



Two different models into late March bring chillier weather back. It's too late in the season for Arctic air (you can breathe a sigh there), but if these maps hold up, I'd prepare for highs in the 40s and low 50s. That's not really earth-shattering, but it might not be what you were hoping for as we know spring begins on March 19th.

Tornado update - as of March 8:


We've had some encounters with brief severe weather in Kansas. As Severe Weather Awareness Week ends, here's a look at the US tornado count compared to "average" and recent years. There's nothing alarming in what we see right now. The current count is the red line and black is normal or average. There's no way to draw conclusions from what we've seen so far to what's next, but we are putting together our severe weather special that airs Saturday, March 16th at 10:35PM. We will try to unlock a few clues as to what we think the upcoming season has in store for the Plains. 

Thursday, February 29, 2024

Meteorological winter ends, but March is just getting started

Before we get into discussing winter temperatures, I wanted to put up this image of the burn scar from Texas. On Tuesday, fires took off north of Amarillo and spread very quickly. What exacerbated the problem was the shift in winds as the cold front moved on through and gusts continued to be well above 40 mph. The area burned was larger than Rhode Island. See for yourself the image from more than 20,000 miles above the Earth. Our technology is quick to pick up on hot spots and assuming a clear sky, they can clearly show burn scars.


Sadly, there's more extreme fire danger ahead and we hope everyone will do their part.

Winter (at least from one standpoint) ends
The end of February is the end of meteorological winter, but if you've been keeping up with the blog, I don't think winter is completely done with us just yet. More about that in a second. Despite the big cold snap in mid-January, it wasn't nearly enough to overcome a top 10 warmest December and now, a top 10 warmest February. 

Here's how the three months combined look (it doesn't have Feb. 29th factored in just yet):


March "normals" look like this:

It's quite possible that March (as a whole) will be near or slightly cooler than average. Our forecast for February was a bust on the cold, but signs are once again pointing toward more cool/chilly weather ahead. 
The first week of the month might be one of the warmest weeks we'll have. 


Mid-February turns cooler - we do have to remember that the averages are climbing as the month wears on and it appears unlikely for any Arctic air to return. However, highs in the 30s and even low 40s wouldn't be that much of a stretch. 



Late February continues to look cool too:

Rain will be back!! I have talked with some farmers in the last few weeks that are quick to remind me that even though drought conditions have improved, farm ponds are still quite low in many areas. The same thing can be said for area lakes too. I fully expect that the jet stream will remain active with a series of systems continuing off the West coast. This is moving into our wet season (April - June), and the more rain we can get now, the better suited we'll be for summer.

First full week of March:



Second full week of March:
An active jet coming out of the west should continue to provide opportunities through much of the month. Will we have a big blizzard? Will there be an early introduction to severe weather season? March can have it all, but what we do see is a shift toward wetter weather. Here's what we have for the end of our first week in March:



Have a great day!

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