Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Pattern change coming - talk of Arctic air - deadly tornadoes already

Thanks for stopping by the blog and sharing a few minutes. We have one storm/cold front coming across Kansas today (Tuesday) and after that, our weather really starts to quiet down. This storm is going to produce some big snows in Nebraska and South Dakota. Along with the wind, near blizzard like conditions will show up north of I-80, so this could be a wintry mess.

It's been very active lately, but still, where's the snow?
Normal snowfall by this point in the season is as follows:
  • Wichita = 8.3"
  • Salina = 9.8"
  • Russell = 10.9"
  • Dodge City = 9.9"
  • Goodland = 17.1"
Many areas don't even have half of those amounts. 

Where are we headed from here? The pattern is changing this week, so the chances for snow are basically slim-none for the remainder of the month. The kind of pattern we thought would repeat many times this winter will be with us for the next 7-9 days. We won't likely see much moisture with this kind of setup, and it could be after the first week of February before there's much chance for rain or snow.

We are certain that Arctic air will be back, but it's still a few weeks out yet. That should put it back in Kansas after the first of February. So expect us to start talking about it as we get closer to that time.

Our hearts go out to those impacted by recent severe weather events in the Southeast. It's not unusual for them to have severe storms in January. After all, the tornado season actually begins in that part of the country and then spreads back to the west and north as we get closer to spring. Already, there have been 2 tornado outbreaks this year with over 20 fatalities (already higher than last year). Let's hope it's not an indication of what's to come.  

Albany, GA - courtesy Kerri Copello

Hattiesburg, MS - courtesy Ryan Moore

Friday, January 20, 2017

Inauguration Day stats - Big temp changes coming next week

President-elect Trump will be inaugurated today and as we all know, it is an outdoor event and subject to some crazy winter weather. There is a great deal of weather history from that date, but I'm only sharing what I think you'll find interesting. The weather in D.C. today looks wet with rain showers moving through close to parade time. 

*The normal high for the date is 43, which is rather tolerable for wintertime, but how often is the weather actually normal.

*Surprisingly, there is just a 1 in 20 chance of snow for the day (remember this is based on previous inaugurations)

*The most dramatic and tragic was back in 1841 when President William Harrison was sworn into office on a cold, windy day. He caught pneumonia and died just one month later.

*In 1909, the weather was so bad it forced the ceremony to be held indoors. A storm dropped 10 inches of snow on the Capital City and it came with wind too. Just after the President delivered his speech, the snow finally ended.

*The warmest January inauguration occurred in 1981 with President Reagan taking office. The temperatures was a balmy 55 degrees at noon. Just 4 years later for his 2nd inauguration, another record was set. It was the coldest inauguration ever for the Capital City with a noon temperature of 7 degrees. Amazing how Mother Nature works.

*Most snow on inauguration day was in 1909 with 9.8" of snow when President Taft was sworn into office. 

A very active weather pattern will continue for much of the Plains throughout the next 5-7 days. The next system to watch arrives Saturday evening, with a chance for rain showers over southern Kansas. It will be warm enough that we won't have to worry about icy or snowy conditions. 

Beyond the weekend forecast, we anticipate another storm coming into our area next Tuesday/Wednesday. The track of this system has been trending farther north, which lowers the possibility of us seeing snow in Kansas. Some snow is possible by Tuesday evening for the northwest, but it's unlikely to get much farther south than that. We will, however, see much colder air filtering in by the middle of the week. Highs will drop back to the 30s.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Very active weather & where did the 7 day forecasts go?

Thanks for spending a few minutes reading the blog. There's still so many without power after last weekends storm. Hopefully it will be restored today or tomorrow. I think we can all be glad it's not bitterly cold as the Arctic air has pulled back to the north and won't return until the end of the month.

One housekeeping note here - at 6 p.m. - our regional 7 day forecasts that come up right after our main weathercasts are in a different spot now. They will air in the commercial break right AFTER the main weathercast. I know, this probably isn't what some of you want to hear, but I actually think it might be a better spot. Sometimes we have to drop the regional 7 days because of too many news stories, so this way, they should almost always make it on air. If you have questions, please let me know.

We have some very active weather coming up for the next week to 10 days. None of the storms coming into the Plains will be ice storms, but the system coming next week (around Tuesday) could be a winter storm. We will start talking more about it later this week.

The first system is one that is coming up from the deep South. It's going to keep us cloudy, produce some sprinkles or drizzle, but significant cold air is lacking. So it's a very safe bet that any precipitation we get will be just rain - no ice or snow.

Another system coming this weekend could bring some rain showers to southern Kansas Saturday night or early Sunday. But I'm forecasting lows in the mid 30s, so that shouldn't cause any problems. Even though it might seem cold enough for snow, once again, we have too much warm air above us in the atmosphere that it will melt anything on the way down.

Here's an early look at the storm for next week - the chance for snow will be back. More details coming tomorrow.

Have a great Wednesday.

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