Wednesday, June 22, 2016

June heat & get ready for next week

Hope you have a way of beating the heat today because this will be one of the hottest days we've had this summer (for at least most of the state) We have had two solid weeks now of 90 degree weather and it rolls on for the rest of this week. I do expect a change... more in a moment. 

Record watch today:
A few locations could tie or break the record for today. Almost all of the record highs from now through early September will be in the 100s, so anytime we get above the century mark, we will check the stats.

Late week pattern:
A couple of things to consider for the rest of the week. The dome of high pressure that allows for day after day of heat and dry weather is weakening. We also have a stalled front that will be in the area tomorrow (Thursday), so watch for widely scattered storms to develop after 3 or 4 p.m. Just like last week, not everyone will get the rain, but those that do... it could be quite heavy. I don't expect major hail, but some wind gusts to 60 will be possible.

Weekend storm chances:
There is a chance for spotty storms Saturday night (should be after dark), but those will be very hit and miss. And new data in this morning suggests that even the Sunday storms will be pretty isolated too. So the weekend won't be a washout, but we can't overlook the fact some of us may have some storms to deal with.

HEADS UP... Next week!
I'm expecting a big shift in the weather pattern early next week. The high pressure system will slide back over the western US and this is going to allow for overnight, widespread storms. Some of them could be severe with damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. This kind of setup usually results in storms that form in Nebraska and then move southeast into the night. Monday night and Tuesday night both have good chances of seeing nighttime storms. Cooler weather could be coming our way too. There are indications of 80 degree weather by the middle of next week (heading into early July of all times)

Monday, June 20, 2016

Back from Austin - Summer Solstice - Heat/Storms

It's great to be back home after a week in Austin, TX at the AMS (American Meteorological Society) Broadcast Conference. These meetings offer up a chance to learn about new technology and advancements in the world of meteorology. Other topics are covered too that may not be directly weather related. One topic covered that everyone seems to be very interested in is the upcoming total solar eclipse for next August (2017). There will be a great deal of information about it as time gets closer, but it will be a very memorable event and something we haven't seen in nearly 100 years.

Summer begins today at 5:34 p.m. The Earth is tilted toward the sun, but did you know the Earth is farther from the sun than it is on the Winter Solstice? It is the tilt that creates our seasons, and the Southern Hemisphere is having their winter right now. Can you imagine living in places like Alaska where they have almost no nighttime? Check this out:
  • Barrow, Alaska - Sun stays up all day
  • Anchorage, Alaska - 19 hours, 21 minutes
  • Wichita - 14 hours, 46 minutes
Our nights are pretty short around here, but I can't imagine the sun staying up all day like it does in Barrow this time of year.

We do have more hot weather is coming to Kansas. This is good news as wheat harvest continues around the state. There will be increasing south winds for Tuesday/Wednesday. Looking ahead, here's what we can expected:

  • High pressure begins breaking down by Wednesday
  • Another front arrives Thursday afternoon/evening
    • Chances for showers/storms will increase - but they will be scattered
  • Not guaranteed, but scattered storm chances will linger into Friday
  • Another front (even stronger) should arrive next weekend, so storms will be in the forecast Saturday, followed by some cooler weather late in the weekend.

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Developing heat wave - for how long?

Less than a week to go before summer's official arrival, but here we are staring right into the start of a heat wave that will likely last for more than a week. Ever since the 50+ 100 degree days of 2011, summer weather patterns make me nervous. That was such a rough summer with a stubborn weather pattern that didn't want to break down.

Take a look at the setup heading into the middle of the week. The jet stream (or storm track) will be pointed from California right up into the northern Rockies. This will allow for the heat to slowly intensify.

It is not uncommon to have some 100 degree heat in June. In fact, most areas average 1-2 days of 100 degree weather by the end of this month. But when it starts getting this hot in June, we can be in for a very long summer.

Where do we go after this week? Forecast models hold on to the large high pressure system right into the first full week of summer. So I don't look for any big changes to take place in temperatures over the weekend or the start of next week. And with such a large heat dome over the area, good chances for rain/thunder will stay away too. Good news for wheat harvest, but bad news for the electric bill and water bill. Welcome to summer!!

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