Friday, May 18, 2018

Update on severe weather chances

The weekend is here and for some of us, it will be a stormy one. It's a busy time of year with graduations, kids getting out of school, and many people scattering to the lake. We are expecting severe weather today (Friday) and again Saturday. 

Friday: Storms developing across western Kansas around 6 or 7 p.m. will be moving east. Main threats will be some large hail to start, and then later on, gusty winds up to 70 mph and heavy rains. I expect as we move past 11 p.m./midnight, storms will weaken as they move east, but heavy rains will continue with the storms. Although storms will be scattered to start, they should grow into a bigger complex that moves east with time.

Saturday: Highest severe threat is focused over northeast Kansas. Large hail, high winds, and a few tornadoes look possible. There's a cold front that will be pushing through our area, which will set the storms off after 5/6 p.m. Although there may be some rain and storms in western Kansas, they aren't expected to be hail or wind producers.

So take a look at the images and plan accordingly. It's another weekend in May that will be a little on the stormy side and we want to make sure you are prepared. Although we have some spotty rain/storm chances for next week, the severe threat will be lower for much of the week.

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Storm chances into the weekend

Thanks for checking out the blog and spending just a minute or two with us. We do have more thunderstorm chances in the forecast heading into the weekend. There's so much humidity around here and with afternoon heating, it's not too hard to get something to pop up.

With the approach of another storm system from the west, here's where the chances will be highest.

Most storms will be focused over western Kansas. These will be very hit and miss, with more places getting missed. Frustrating to say the least when you need rain in the worst way. Some hail & wind can be expected. The best chance for severe weather will be in northeast Colorado, western Nebraska, and far NW Kansas.

The focus for storms will once again be in western Kansas during the evening hours. What develops will move east through the evening. Heaviest rains will be across Colorado, Nebraska, and northern Kansas. Once again, some storms will be severe with hail & strong winds. They should weaken some late into the night as they try to move east.

There will be a cold front in the area Saturday late afternoon. As the front runs into higher humidity, scattered storms begin to fire off. I don't think you'll see that many severe storms, but heavy downpours and small hail certainly look likely. Be prepared if you are camping or attending an outdoor graduation. We'll be dodging storms at least through Saturday night.

New Drought Map is out:
No big change, but some rearranging of the highest level. Exceptional drought continues in southwest Kansas, and a few areas have been lowered to "severe". It's still pretty bad in many areas, so let's keep the rain coming for as long as we can. This is really hard on agriculture when water isn't there.

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Rainfall amounts & what's still to come

Rainfall reports from Monday evening/early Tuesday:
Winfield: 2.02"
Emporia: 1.85"
Medicine Lodge: 0.90"
Jabara Airport (NE Wichita): 0.56"
Garden City: 0.55"
Concordia: 0.16"
Dodge City: 0.14"
Salina: 0.12"
Newton: 0.09"
Hutch: 0.07"

Some of you have asked if we are still expecting most of the state to get rain (like what we were talking about at the end of last week). The answer to that is yes!! We still have several more chances coming up this week and we have a much better idea when it will arrive.

Tonight (Tue. Night): Best rain chance - SW
Showers and storms will develop and move into far southwest Kansas late into the evening. These storms should not be severe.

Wednesday: Spotty thunderstorms for central and southern Kansas
Not everyone will get rain Wednesday, but watch for the hit and miss storms to develop in the heat of the afternoon.

Thursday: Main area of storms - NW Kansas
Chances for storms will shift back to northern Kansas with some heavy rain, hail, and some wind. Storm chances will continue for northern Kansas well into the night.

Friday & into Saturday:
Chances for storms return to northern Kansas by Friday evening. This could be a severe weather setup again for many areas. We will also be watching for storms to develop in southwest Kansas and continue into the night.

By the end of this week, many areas still stand a chance of getting about an inch (or more around heavier storms). So our forecast from last week still stands. Just have to be patient with the rain as we have many, many chances still to move our way.

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