Friday, February 23, 2018

Weekend storm & talk of drought

Another storm is going to move through the Plains this weekend with chances for rain and snow. This system is different from the ones earlier this week in the fact that it will have wind, and less in the way of freezing rain and sleet.

Here's the track the storm will take:

Heaviest snow is going to go north of Kansas, into Nebraska and Iowa. It wouldn't be a surprise at all to see some areas get a foot of snow. But this is a fast moving storm and the wind with it will be pretty gusty. So a few hours of blizzard like conditions will set in.

Next week:
The chance for rain on Wednesday will be a bit of a close call, and maybe not the most promising storm. We expect a front to move through the area, which should help to trigger a few showers and some thunderstorms. But if the front moves through faster than what we are expecting now, our chances of rain will go farther east. 

Are we turning the corner on the drought? Not likely. Just look at the forecast for rainfall over the next 16 days. It's not encouraging for southwest Kansas at all. Eastern Kansas may catch some periodic light rain events, but I don't see any good soaking rains coming this way anytime soon. More active weather is expected east of us, and chances for snow will be moving back across the northern Plains, but for Kansas, I don't like these 2 week outlooks that have little to no substantial moisture for central and western part of the state.

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Two rounds to go!

Doesn't this always seem to happen? We see light at the end of our winter tunnel, and all of a sudden, we get hit. This winter has been a little strange, but all of a sudden we seem to be in an active setup.

So here's what you need to know for the next round coming to Kansas:

The next batch of moisture is going to move in from the south (likely be after 4 or 5 p.m.). Unlike what happened Tuesday morning, there won't be thunderstorms with this next event. However, we still expect all precipitation types, include sleet, snow, and some freezing rain.
5 PM Wednesday Evening

8 PM Wednesday Evening

Midnight - Early Thursday

While we still don't expect enough ice accumulation to cause major power outages, there will be some very slick roads. The same areas that had icy weather Monday night have the best chance of slick conditions Wednesday night/early Thursday.

What about the weekend storm?
The Saturday system looks less and less impressive all the time. The storm is tracking right over Kansas, which drags too much dry air through our state. That will cut down on our chances of higher rainfall amounts. A few rain showers will develop Saturday, and some snow may slide across northern Kansas, but I'm thinking the majority of snowfall accumulation is going to go into Nebraska. 

The active weather isn't over yet!
We could be looking at another chance for some wet weather right at the beginning of March. It's early to say very much about the system, but another system sets up in the southwest, which could be good news for the Plains. We sure do need it.

Monday, February 19, 2018

Watching for SOME rain-snow this week

Welcome to Monday and this could be an active week throughout the Plains. Active doesn't necessarily mean we are all going to get rain or snow, but there are several features to watch and track throughout the week. 

Now - Tuesday Evening:
A slow moving cold front (that will actually wobble back and forth) will help to spark off some rain and thunderstorms. Some wintry weather is possible in northeast Kansas, but most of the action will be east of the Flint Hills. Best chances for the rain to get farther west will come Tuesday morning or early afternoon, but even then, it's not likely to be any farther west than I-135.

Another chance Thursday:
There's another little batch of moisture coming through Thursday afternoon. Once again, the main focus will mainly be in eastern Kansas. This should be some light rain, mixed with a few snow showers in northeast Kansas. Amounts will be under 0.25"

Saturday - Feb. 24:
Another system will come through the Plains during the weekend and if we're lucky, another round of moisture will be possible. This won't be a drought busting setup, but chances for rain and snow will push through Kansas. We can't get too excited about this yet because the forecast can and will change some as time goes along. However, at least we have something on the horizon (other than fire danger and 0% chances of rain)

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