Friday, October 20, 2017

Winter outlooks, weekend storms, & meteor shower

Good morning and happy Friday. Winter outlooks are popping up all over the place and that is probably the #2 weather question I'm getting these days, what is the winter going to be like? (The most asked question is about Millie)

I don't put much value in NOAA's winter outlook. I don't want to go into why, but if the topic didn't come up in our newsroom, I wouldn't even bother to look at them. We still don't know what kind of winter we will have just yet, but some clues are showing up. I am planning to post a winter outlook in mid November when we have some better ideas.

Here's a quick rundown for Saturday:

  • Cold front develops storms shortly after 2 p.m., but these will likely not be severe
  • Storms will multiply and form into a line as they continue east. By 4-5 p.m., most of the storms will be pushing into eastern Kansas. 
  • Best severe chances will be southeast of the Turnpike
  • Main threat will be wind gusts 60-65 mph. Hail size is likely going to be smaller than 1"

Next week:
We are about to have a rapid series of cold fronts coming our way. Wild swings in temperatures look more and more likely with each set of model data coming in. It's also looking dry for next week and all the way through the end of the month, chances for rain (or snow) remain very very low.

Meteor Shower This Weekend:
It's not one of the better showers, but we will have clear skies into Sunday morning, which is when the Orionid Meteor shower will peak. A heavy sweatshirt or coat may come in handy if you are heading out to look.

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Another weekend storm & pattern shift next week

Firefighters in northern California are about to get even more help from Mother Nature with rain and snow chances increasing Friday. FINALLY, the weather pattern begins to change as a storm comes crashing into the west coast. It won't be a ton of rain, but every little bit can help slow the fires.

The storm system will create a TON of wind by Friday. Winds will easily climb above 20 with gusts over 40 likely. And the humidity will be coming up very quickly Friday afternoon.

Get ready for some rain on Saturday. This is such a fast moving system that it won't produce a ton of precipitation, but areas southeast of the Turnpike will likely get .50-1"

A big push of chilly/cool fall air will be arriving. There's going to be a large bend in the weather pattern that will deliver a change in airmass - one that will send us back below normal for a few days. Right now, it's unlikely to bring any precipitation to our area.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Fires from space & next active day for Kansas

Welcome to Monday and the halfway point of October... already. After an active weekend of weather for parts of Kansas, the weather settles down the next 3-4 days. In fact, we may not see any clouds whatsoever until Thursday at the earliest. 

California Fires:

The massive fires burning in California have been so large that for the past week or so, the smoke plumes have been visible from space. The new satellite that was launched last November (GOES-R) has the capability of monitoring an area with 30 second to 1 minute images. So we are getting high resolution pictures of the smoke plumes from space. Here's an example of one from yesterday afternoon. One of the biggest fires still burning is the Tubbs fire, now 60% contained.

Northern California has a CHANCE for some rain later this week. A fairly large storm system will be impacting the west coast. Rain chances will ramp up a bit Friday, but the amounts will likely be under .50" They don't need a ton of rain, as it would lead to mudslides, but this will hopefully help firefighters take control.

Next stormy weather for Kansas:
The same storm that hits California Friday becomes one to watch for Kansas next weekend. A cold front will be coming back across Kansas Saturday, which should be our next chance for rain and storms. It's a little early to nail down exact timing and how much, but this will be the next bit of active weather for the Plains. 

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