Thursday, October 23, 2014

Late summer rally in Kansas - but change coming soon

The rainfall Wednesday evening wasn't much, but then again, we weren't forecasting anything significant. Most rainfall amounts have been .10" or less. The clouds are hanging around Kansas early this morning (Thursday), but we still expect the skies to clear in time for the partial solar eclipse. Just a reminder, the eclipse begins at 4:36 (when the moon touches the edge of the sun) and it will reach its peak at 5:46. The sun will actually set about 10 minutes prior to the whole thing being over. 

We've had 14 days this month with highs above normal and by the end of the weekend, that number will climb to 18. There hasn't been much cool air lately because it's been stuck in Canada with the jet stream tracking so far north. That could be a sign of what may be setting up going into the winter season. Stay tuned. We will be watching the record book Friday afternoon and again Sunday. With forecast highs into the 80s, that will put us in record territory. About the only way you'll know it's fall is by looking at the changing color around us, and right now, I see a lot of maple trees with a lot of red and orange. 

A big cool down is coming early next week. A cold front will push through Monday and send us back into some fall-like weather for the start of the week. Even though it could be a 20-30 degree drop, it only brings us back to normal for late October (average high is 67). We are still on track to have some comfortable 70-to near 80 degree weather as we approach Halloween. And it will likely be dry for Trick-or-Treat this year.
Much cooler weather is coming our way Monday afternoon - Tuesday
The World Series moves to San Francisco now. So excited to see the Royals win big Wednesday night and we hope they can continue that success through the weekend. I'm not sure if the rain Saturday will be enough to cause delays or a cancellation, but overall, Friday and Sunday games shouldn't have any problems and the temperatures look comfortable.
4 day forecast for San Francisco

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Solar eclipse details, some rain, and an early Halloween forecast

A little disappointment with the outcome of last nights Game 1 of the World Series (if you are a Royals fan), and unfortunately, we will most likely be disappointed by this storm system that is coming into Kansas too. It's not a very organized system and our moisture supply is limited, so I'm forecasting rainfall amounts up to 0.25" with the reality that most of us will get a lot less than that.

Thursday, October 23rd
There is a partial solar eclipse coming up Thursday. We've already had two lunar eclipse events this year that have been fun to watch. But when it comes to solar eclipses, they don't happen very often. A total solar eclipse is even more rare (the next one of those is in August of 2017). You'll need special glasses to view this, or you can try poking a hole in a piece of paper and projecting the image on something. You don't want to be looking directly at the sun. The best time to look is around 5:45, and remember, this is just a partial eclipse, so the entire sun will not be covered. The sun will set about 10 minutes before the entire eclipse is over. Should be pretty cool to watch and hopefully there won't be any clouds in our way.

Looks like a July or August weather pattern
Summertime weather is coming back for Friday and the weekend.  A large high pressure system will allow our highs to climb into the 80s and approach record values. This exact same weather pattern in July or August would lead to 90s and 100s, but it is October after all. Normal highs for this time of the year are in the mid 60s and we will be 20 degrees above that. We are getting ready to see some bigger changes take place early next week though. It will feel more like fall by Monday and Tuesday. AND, I've looked ahead to the Halloween forecast: Dry with highs in the 70s. Should be nice this year.
Halloween week starts out MUCH cooler!

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Midweek storm chance and a change to severe weather outlooks

Unusual October weather pattern
Our week is off to a warm start around Kansas. It was a little weird seeing high temperatures hit 80 degrees and it will happen again before the end of the week. Feels like summer and the weather pattern setup resembles that of July or August. I don't think we will break any record highs, but we could get close toward the end of the week.

Game 1 of the World Series will be played in some really nice weather in Kansas City. Today and tomorrow should be very comfortable with light winds and temperatures close to 60. And then as the Royals get ready to leave town Thursday, the chance for rain moves in.

Game 1 Forecast
The chance for rain will increase around here Wednesday evening and into the night. This is a disorganized, weak storm that's going to pass through the Plains. Moisture is limited, so I think rainfall amounts will be 0.25" or less for much of the area. Some areas don't need any rain right now, but south central and some of southwest Kansas could sure use it. Wichita is about 5.50 inches below on moisture for the year.

There is a change coming to the severe weather outlooks that we show you on TV. Starting tomorrow, instead of having just slight, moderate, and high risks for severe storms, you will now hear us use the word enhanced. You can think of the new outlooks like this:

Slight = Very Isolated (one or two severe storms possible)
Enhanced = Good chance (hail and wind likely, a few tornadoes possible too)
Moderate = Severe weather likely with hail, wind, and some strong tornadoes
High = Severe weather outbreak is coming with destructive tornadoes likely 

We will be talking more about this as severe weather season draws closer next spring, but it's a change that's been in the works now for several months. 

More details on the partial solar eclipse coming in tomorrow's blog. Have a great Tuesday!

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