Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Have we turned the corner on the dry spell?

If you're like me, you still have a smile on your face from the rain that fell Sunday night/Monday. The drought definitely isn't over, but have we turned the corner?

The short answer to that is no, but we are seeing at least more opportunities for SOME rain in the next 2-3 weeks. A widespread, soaking event like we had earlier this week is not likely to happen again soon.

Next week: A deep system will form over the desert Southwest Sunday-Monday. This will be a slow moving storm, so some areas are going to get a good soaking. Latest data is pushing some of the heavier moisture farther east, but keep in mind the storm hasn't formed, so there could be some other changes in the computer models still to come.

More chilly weather is coming too: Below normal temperatures (which would typically be highs in the 40s/50s) will likely be with us as we close out the month of March.

More wet weather nearby: Looking into early April, there are signs of more wet weather occurring in the central and southern Plains. But will it all go east of us? That's something we will watch for as this years storm track has favored the heavier rains to go north, east, and south of Kansas.

Areas dealing with drought can expect some occasional rains, but breaking the drought doesn't look likely anytime soon. For that to happen, we are going to need a major overhaul in the way storms approaching Kansas setup.

Monday, March 19, 2018

Rainfall amounts ending at 7 a.m. Monday

Some of you will be smiling today because of the welcome rain and moisture across the state. This is certainly the wettest storm Kansas has had since early fall (2017), and it comes at a critical time. The wheat is trying to grow, grass is wanting to green up, and drought has been expanding for months now. The drought is NOT over though. That won't happen until we get several more inches of rain (which hopefully doesn't all come at one time)

Through 7 a.m. Monday:
Hutch: 1.51"
Great Bend: 1.39"
Dodge City: 1.03" (1" of snow)
Emporia: 1.02"
Wichita: .97"
Newton: .87"
Winfield: .83"
Medicine Lodge: .80"
Pratt: .77"
Salina: .59"
Garden City: .33"
Hill City: .29"
Concordia: .29"
Hays: .27"
Russell: .25"
Goodland: .14" (1" of snow)

Friday, March 16, 2018

How likely are we to get rain?

We made it to the weekend and I'll keep this post short. Wanted to share some new images with you on how the late weekend storm is shaping up. I know I'm getting excited for the possibilities, but I also know how our luck has been going as of late. So here's what the models were showing us yesterday:

And here's what I'm seeing today:

I don't think there's any harm if this storm ends up tracking a bit farther south. If it does, it's going to bring some of the heavier rain possibilities farther south into more of our state. But we will see how things change over the weekend. I think we have reason to be excited about this storm, but it won't wipe the drought away. That will take a very long time considering how dry we have been.

Have a great weekend!

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