Friday, September 22, 2017

How much rain, where & when?

We've made it to the weekend and there's a lot of anticipation on this upcoming storm to deliver some badly needed rain. But as we've seen before, big storms like the one we are about to see in the Plains move SLOWLY. So be patient as we wait for rain to move from west to east.  Good news is that it's unlikely we will have very many (if any) severe storms. Even though we are in "second season" for severe weather, I don't expect there to be much in the way of hail or damaging winds.

Friday night - Sunday afternoon:
Most rain will fall in the west (basically west of Hays to Dodge City)

Sunday night:
We should start to the see the leading edge of rain getting into central Kansas, but not as far east as Salina, Hutch, or Wichita.
Rain is possible (and even likely in many areas) for areas along and west of I-135.

Monday Night-Tuesday:
Rain ends across the west, but continues for central and eastern Kansas.

By the time we get to Wednesday morning, our forecast models suggest everyone in Kansas will have had some rain. Heaviest amounts are expected in the west, but even central and eastern Kansas could get close to an inch.

And - much cooler weather takes over next week too. There will be many days with 60s and 70s for highs!! Fall weather is finally on the way.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

This will make so many happy!

After putting up with the wind and heat (and more dry weather yesterday), how about some good news on our next chances for rain? 

The huge storm & wind maker that has been parked over the western US for the last 3 days will finally begin moving east Friday. Because this is a slow moving storm, there are some important things to remember:
  1. Rain chances will extend over several days and some of the rain is expected to be heavy
  2. We must be patient with the rain. It will take a few days before the it moves from western Kansas to the eastern half of the state.
Here's an early look at timing & how much we could get out of this storm. It's just the kind of setup we need to cover a large area AND get more than just a trace of moisture.

Storms will still be fairly scattered Friday night as the front is still just off to our northwest.

Rain will pick up in intensity and cover more areas Saturday night and early Sunday. I don't expect we will have severe weather with this weekend setup, but a few strong storms are possible.

Heavier rains will be on the move into central Kansas Sunday evening/night. 

The front will slowly reach south central and eastern Kansas by Monday. This will increase chances for showers and I think you're going to see these chances linger into Tuesday too. Rainfall will likely not be as heavy farther east in Kansas, but nearly everyone in our state should get something over the next week.

I'm sharing with you an updated look at some of the model data we are looking at in the storm center. The numbers on these maps do not guarantee that you'll get that much rain but it offers up an idea of where the heaviest rains will be. And this increases the confidence that this will be a statewide event.  

Monday, September 18, 2017

What to watch for this week

So our weekend of rain chances has come and gone, and I know some of you are thrilled that it rained again. But most of us are not too happy with the amounts. That's the problem with "scattered" rain and storms, especially when you are as dry as we are here in Kansas.

We will be thankful for the little bit of moisture we had and start looking ahead to what's next for Kansas. It's actually going to be an active week, given the weather pattern that's setting up across the US. There will be more snow falling in the mountains across western Wyoming into Idaho and Montana. A very large storm is about to form across the western US, and it will take all week before it finally moves. How does that impact Kansas?

It will be windy AND hot on Tuesday. Here come the 90s again!

We will have a cold front in the area Wednesday, but not many (if any) storms are expected with it.

Later this week:

Forecast models show the western storm slowly moving toward Kansas. Rain chances should begin to increase in western Kansas late in the week. The front should also be slow to move, which could mean several days in a row with storm chances for Kansas. Two different models (over the next 8 days) give much of the area measurable rain, but in order for this to happen, we need the front to stall over Kansas next weekend.
European model

American model (GFS)
So as disappointed as you might be with the lack of rain this weekend, maybe we can offset that with the hope of more moisture arriving within the next week.

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