Thursday, October 30, 2014

Big chill arriving soon - rain chance returning soon

We've made it to Thursday and the weather is about to get colder across the area. It's really hard to believe that last week at this time we were headed for 80s and 90s. We've had 21 days with above normal temperatures in October. We will see what the final number comes out to be, but there is still a chance for this month to rank in the top 10 warmest Octobers on record.

A cold front has moved across Kansas this morning, and summer weather is gone. It's time to start thinking about disconnecting the garden hose from the house and getting ready for our first night with sub-freezing temperatures. A hard freeze is likely for much of the area Saturday morning. There is a big chunk of colder, Canadian air that will continue it's southward push into Halloween. You can see on the regional map that Kansas is caught between warmer air west over the Rockies and the big cold plunge just east of us. Trick-or-treating temperatures will be in the 40s with decreasing winds around the area. 

Get ready for a windy weekend around the state, but it should be dry. The forecast models have been hinting at a sprinkle Saturday afternoon for some of south central and eastern Kansas, but it definitely won't be anything more than that.

Rain setup for next week
Our next best chance for moisture comes in early next week. A stalled front Monday afternoon will help develop some rain (and a few thunderstorms) from southwest into central and southern Kansas. I know that not everyone needs moisture, but there are several areas over southern Kansas that need the rain. Forecast models show over an inch of rain from Coldwater to Hutchinson to Emporia. So let's watch this closely over the next few days and see if anything changes. It would be great to have a nice, soaking rainfall before winter gets here.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

World Series ending just in time for a big change - killing freeze possible very soon

Our weather continues to be very quiet this week as the World Series takes front and center stage tonight. The weather has been really nice for players and fans with the winds light and the temperatures comfortably cool. High pressure is slow to move, so we will get another nice day for Wednesday and then we start to deal with changes in the weather for the rest of the week.

Another cold front will slip through the area Thursday morning, and in the afternoon, we will have gusty winds (probably around 30 mph) from the north. I don't think you'll notice much of a change in temperatures for Thursday, but you definitely will on Halloween. It looks like highs will struggle to get out of the 50-55 degree range and as the kids get ready to go Trick-or-Treating, temperatures will fall into the 40s. Good news though; the winds will calm down during the evening.

Pattern starts changing and results in some snow for the upper Midwest
It's definitely getting colder though. Look at the lake effect snow that will be setting up around the Great Lakes by Friday morning. Lake effect snow happens when the cold air moves across the relatively warm bodies of water. This is quite common through late fall and early winter, and it's not uncommon for some cities around the lakes to get several feet of snow.

Temperatures Friday evening - MUCH cooler
Kansas is going to be on the western fringe of that much cooler airmass at the end of the week. Several of you have said you are not ready for snow yet. And there isn't anything showing on the weather maps that would suggest snow is in the immediate future, but we know it won't be long before we start talking about winter weather.

Heads up... a killing frost/freeze is quite possible early Saturday morning. Details to come on Thursday.

In the meantime, go Royals!

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Cooler & quiet now - turning stormy soon?

Good Tuesday morning. The weather is going to be really nice for the next couple of days. We shouldn't have a bunch of wind to deal with and temperatures will feel like late October. What a quick turnaround from the weekend with highs in the 90s. We've had 19 days this month with highs above normal, and when the month ends, there is a chance it will rank in the top 10 warmest Octobers on record. We average the high and low temperatures together to see where the month will rank. Of course, we won't have a final number until Saturday.

High pressure will keep the weather calm for today and Wednesday. No chance for any rain and the skies will generally be sunny both days.

There is another fast moving cold front that will move across the area Thursday morning, so I expect the wind to be gusty from the north, and temperatures will start going down again just in time for Halloween. No scary storms coming through for Trick-or-Treating this year. There could be some lake effect snows across the upper Midwest into Friday. Some of you can recall a time when it snowed in Kansas for Halloween, but not in 2014. The weather definitely looks to be changing quickly.

Weekend storm system will create VERY windy weather... but not much rain
Speaking of changes, our weather pattern is about to get active heading into early November. We have a couple of systems that will be coming our way this weekend. We won't notice much other than the strong south winds. I expect wind gusts over 40 mph both Saturday and Sunday. There's a better chance for some rain coming up Monday, especially for areas of south central and eastern Kansas. We will have to see where the moisture feed sets up, but it looks to target mainly southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Details to come in the days ahead!!

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