Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Severe storms & summer not over

Tornado Monday evening in southeast Cowley County from Nicole Loeffler
What a rough couple of days with severe storms in Kansas. Heavy rain, wind, hail, and then yesterday, a few tornadoes in south central and southeast Kansas. After having no tornadoes in July and only a few in August, the month of September is off to an active start.

I'm posting a picture from Twitter last night from Nicole Loeffler showing the tornado as it first touched down in southeast Cowley county and then moved down toward the Cedar Vale area in western Chautauqua county. There are some reports of damage, so the assessment crews will be out surveying today and we should get an EF rating for the tornado very soon.

Scattered storms are expected tonight (Tuesday night) across central and eastern Kansas as the hot weather pushes back to the north. Most of them will not be severe, but some of the stronger storms may contain hail into the night.

Wind forecast for the next few days
Temperatures trending warmer for mid week
And summer weather not over yet. We have two hot, September days coming up where much of the state will see highs in the 90s. The wind is going to crank up too from the south for Wednesday and Thursday.

The next cold front will be coming in Thursday night and early Friday, which will drop the temperatures back into the 70s for highs by the end of the week. Just in time for the start of the Kansas State Fair. Details on when Millie will be there should be announced very soon.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Heavy rainfall and storms for part of the holiday weekend

We saw some BIG rainfall in spots Wednesday evening. Near Monument in Logan county, one location had almost 2 inches of rain in 15 minutes. That's what you call a downpour. Wow!!  And 9 miles west of Stockton in Rooks county, 5.50 inches of rain fell with the storms that moved through. The radar estimates north of I-70 are quite impressive. Several of the lakes and reservoirs throughout northern Kansas have been waiting on some big rains like this for awhile. 
24 Hour Rainfall amounts:
Hill City: 3.75"
Smith Center: 2.41"
Garden City: 0.67"
Concordia: 0.20"
Medicine Lodge: 0.19"
Goodland: 0.09"
Salina: 0.05"
Dodge City: 0.03"

Scattered storms chances for central and eastern Kansas can be expected through Friday afternoon. I just don't want you to get your hopes up for widespread, big rains because in reality, the heavy rainfall will likely be spotty. While most of us should get something, I'm only expecting between .50-1" in most areas. But there will be those occasional downpours where rain totals will go over 1 inch. Let's hope. 

Heading into the holiday weekend, we might see a stray shower or storm Saturday evening in far western Kansas, but the main concern will be a cold front coming into the area Sunday evening. There is a potential for severe storms across central and northern Kansas. I think the main threat will be strong winds over 60 mph, and this area of storms will move east/southeast heading into Sunday night. The southwest is the least likely area to see rain.

We should be dry and warm for Labor Day with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. Hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Continuing storm chances & holiday weekend outlook

These scattered, summertime storms have been pretty frustrating because almost as fast as some develop, they fall apart. So if you've received some nice rain in the last few days, you are the lucky ones because so many of us have missed out. The isolated storms around south central Kansas dumped on a few areas. Melinda McCurley sent in some pictures from the Argonia/Freeport areas (down in western Sumner county) showing very heavy rains and a gauge that had about 2.5 inches in it by the time the storms finally started winding down.

The best chance for rain today will be in western Kansas, but tonight, we should see an eastward push to the rain, and around midnight or shortly after, some of the storms are expected to reach central Kansas.

It's not going to rain all day Thursday and Friday, but we have chances that will extend through both days. And if you are in the right place at the right time, you could get dumped on with heavy rains. So forecasting amounts is going to be hard to do in this situation, but most of us have a chance to get .50 to 1 inch of rain by Friday evening.

The holiday weekend forecast may have some changes to it in the next day or two. Here's what I'm starting to think may happen:

Saturday: Dry statewide with highs in the 80s. South breeze under 20 mph for most of the state
Sunday: Getting hot with temperatures near 100 in the southwest. The rest of the state will be back into the 90s with gusty south winds. 
Sunday Night: Cold front approaches from the northwest, and some storms may develop and move into northern Kansas late in the night.
Labor Day: Early a.m. showers and storms across northeast Kansas, then dry into the afternoon with highs in the 80s and lower humidity.

Be sure to check in with us later today and tonight to get updates on the rain chances and the holiday weekend.

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