Thursday, May 26, 2016

Severe weather threat - Thursday



Thanks for sticking with us this week during all of the stormy weather. We have another busy day ahead with storms likely across Kansas and the chance for hail, wind, and tornadoes will once again be focused over our area. 

Storms are expected to develop anytime after 1 p.m. today, and once they fire up, the should move east or northeast. Due to the very high humidity, very large hail is quite likely with most storms and this threat will cover much of the state.

The chance for tornadoes will also be present today. There is a warm front that will lift north across the state, and it's along and north of that front that tornado potential will be highest. This means areas along and north of I-70 definitely need to be watching things closely. 

Our thoughts go out to those who have had damage this week because of storms. Most of us anxiously await some quieter weather heading into the holiday weekend. 

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Stormy weather continues

Trevor Sherman - NW of Minneola
Darrel Berry - Scott City
Ron Herrman - Dodge City
It was by far our busiest severe weather day we've had in a long time. I don't know how many tornadoes we had Tuesday evening, but when the final count comes in, it will likely be somewhere around 8-10. Keep in mind, if 5 people see the same tornado and report it, that will be 5 tornado reports, not 5 different tornadoes (it can sometimes cause confusion)


Moving on to the next round and what we expect to happen moving into the holiday weekend. There are several areas of the state that could use some dry weather for a few weeks, but we aren't going to get that kind of stretch for awhile yet.

Today: Mainly quiet. A stray shower or storm may develop late in the afternoon with enough heating and humidity around. However, we don't expect there to be very many (if any) storms in Kansas.


Thursday: Our main culprit to all of the active weather is finally heading into the Plains. The chance for severe storms will once again be in place and we will likely have more hail, wind, and a few tornadoes in the state by Thursday afternoon. Because some areas are so saturated, flooding is a real threat too.

Friday: While the chance for storms will linger on Friday, the severe weather threat is MUCH lower and should be rather spotty.

Saturday: Still expected to be mainly dry around Kansas as the main storm system finally pushes to the north of Kansas.

Sunday - Tuesday: Storm chances will continue for much of Kansas, including Memorial Day as well. There could be some severe storms during this time too.


A CHANGE ON THE HORIZON:
We are starting to see a shift in the pattern that could finally bring an end to so much stormy weather across Kansas. This change could happen as early as Wednesday, June 1st, but definitely, by the second half of next week, we should start seeing more dry weather returning to the Plains.

Monday, May 23, 2016

Stormy pattern - does it end for Memorial Day weekend?

This is our last full week of May and it's shaping up to be pretty active throughout much of the Plains. After the unseasonably cool spell last week with little to no severe storms, I guess we will be making up for that this week.

We have several chances for storms in the upcoming week, but trying to figure out the details is going to be a challenge for us.

What we do know:
There is a slow moving storm anchored over California and the desert Southwest. "Smaller" storms will break loose from there and move toward Kansas. Every time one of those passes, we are going to see storms develop. There will also be a front in the area, which will only help to develop more storms. AND... this will be a much warmer week with more 80s than anything else.

Uncertainties:
It's difficult to know where the highest chances for severe weather will be. Timing of storms will also be a challenge.

We are fairly confident that there will be a break on Wednesday for Kansas. But more storms and some heavy rainfall will once again be possible for Thursday and Friday. Look how much rain could fall by the end of the day Thursday. The southwest may miss the heavier rounds of rain.




Memorial Day weekend:
A few weeks ago when we looked this far out, I suggested we might have a nice Memorial Day weekend (without many storms). The pattern is still looking like we might catch a break for Saturday and Sunday. We will have one storm off to the northeast (into Canada) with another one developing west of the Rockies. It almost never happens that we have a spring or summer holiday weekend come and go without some kind of thunderstorms. But maybe we will get lucky this year. Time will certainly tell.

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