Shifting weather patterns into early November - might be good news for many

We are moving out of the deep freeze... for now! The weather pattern is shifting around and going to allow much of the Plains to see a return to some more typical weather. It won't necessarily be warmer than normal, but we are inching back closer to fall weather.

The changing pattern will be good news for the fires in California. We are about to see a complete reversal of the winds, and they will soon be blowing from the water to the land (called an "onshore" flow) that will bring more humidity to the area. That should happen late in the weekend or the beginning of next week.

Kansas - next week:

Get ready for a somewhat milder week. We don't have any snow in the forecast and although temperatures may warm up for the beginning of the week, they likely won't stay that way. If we look to the north, there's still some VERY cold air in the Dakotas and some of that may break off and move south. If that happens (and confidence is growing that it will), it will likely arrive by midweek.

The jet stream winds are coming from the northwest too, so chances of moisture are VERY SLIM throughout the week.

Here's a snapshot of temperatures for the first full week of November. Looks quite cold over the central Plains all the way up into central Canada. We expect it to be cold, but this maps shows Kansas about 10° below the normal highs in the upper 50s.

Precipitation chances don't look that good:

the overall setup will keep most of the moisture east of the central Plains. We may have some occasional encounters with drizzle or light precipitation, but nothing that stands out as heavy. Even most of the snow will likely stay north of our area.

Have a great day and Happy Halloween!

Snow update

There aren't too many changes to the forecast from the last 36-48 hours. It still looks like the snow and rain will move into Kansas and make for some interesting weather beginning tonight (Tue. night) and continue through at least 7 or 8 p.m. Wednesday. This storm is tracking from the Rockies and will roll right out across Kansas into Wednesday.

Snow forecasting is tricky because there are so many factors to take into consideration, but at the end of the day, nobody is going to get buried by what's about to move through the Plains. Most of the state will see a few inches of snow, and if you decide not to shovel or have it cleared, it should be gone by the end of the week.

Timing: Light snow and flurries begins in western Kansas later this afternoon. Accumulations will be minimal and most roads should be just fine. Farther east, there's a good chance it will be a mix of some light rain/drizzle. 

Later tonight/early Wednesday: Snow begins to ramp up across western Kansas. Areas west of a Hays to Dodge City line will mainly get snow. And as soon as it gets dark, chances will increase for central Kansas to start getting some snow (and it could be mixed with some freezing drizzle too)

Wichita and much of south central Kansas may be getting some rain through the night. 

Wednesday - Throughout the day, the rain snow line will keep pushing east and get everyone turned over to snow. The later the changeover, the less snow you get. If it happens sooner, then you could see a little bit more. I think there will be several 2, 3, and 4 inch amounts from this storm, but on the high side, some areas may see 5"

Watch for possible record lows early Thursday: Several areas will drop into the teens, and that will put us on record watch to begin Halloween. Wind chills will easily dip below zero for a few areas, but record information does NOT take into account feels like temperatures. 

A CRAZY end to October - snow on the way

This has been a strange month of October and nothing more crazy than this weeks forecast of cold and snow. The month started with 90s, and now finishes with a taste of December or January like weather. Wow!.

Two rounds of moisture - first one (today) is a dud!
Some flurries will move across western and northern Kansas into the afternoon, but accumulation is NOT likely. Roads will be fine, but temperatures are going to be more than 20° colder than what's considered "average". October is not supposed to be this cold, but sometimes it goes like this.

Round two - Tue. night and Wednesday

This system is coming from over the Rockies, and as I pointed out last week, most systems that come from this direction don't produce huge snows. Our heaviest and highest impact storms come from the southwest or out over the Four Corners area (after they've had a chance to ingest rich, deep Gulf moisture). This one happens to be east of that prime spot. So I'm not expecting a ton of snow. However, there will be accumulation.

Timing: It begins Tuesday evening/night as light snow in western Kansas, and a mix of some rain/snow, maybe sleet along and southeast of the Turnpike. (YOU CAN CLICK ON ABOVE IMAGES TO ENLARGE THEM)

During the night-early Wednesday: 

The rain snow line will creep east. Central and western Kansas will be getting all snow. The wind will pick up from the north and gusts may be close to 25 mph. This WON'T be a blizzard, but some blowing snow is expected Wednesday morning. Majority of the snow will fall up until about 2 or 3 p.m. Wednesday, then begin to push east rather quickly. South central Kansas will be seeing a switch to snow by early Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night, the system moves east. Snow accumulation looks decent for late October and should be the first accumulating snow for many this season. There could be some pockets from southwest into central Kansas where the amounts are little higher, but confidence isn't there just yet to include more significant snow on this map yet.

We will have more updates today on TV and online. Happy Halloween.

Snow next week? What?

A fairly broad area of rain (and snow) has just gone south of Kansas and will be something to watch through at least Saturday. This is a fairly SLOW moving system, but not exactly a big winter storms. Temperatures have just been cold enough on the backside to produce some decent (by October standards) snow across Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Colorado.

Just look where we are Saturday. Again, close to some rain, but the leftovers of the system are just east of Kansas. 

The wet weather will likely stretch from OKC all the way to the Great Lakes. Notice there isn't much blue - so the weekend moisture is all rain as temperatures warm up.

Snow chances next week? 
Right now, we are looking at Monday AND Tuesday to have some snow flurries. These are NOT big storms coming from the west, and this is not a situation where the track is going to change the amounts by large amounts. This is setup where the air is just cold enough that we squeeze out some light precipitation and it will be cold enough to fall as snow. So don't expect school delays and road closures. Is anybody really ready for that?
Monday

Tuesday

COLD ALERT - next week!

We've been sounding the alarm on this for several days now that next week looks cold. I don't know if we will have record low temperatures in Kansas, but we might get close if the clouds break up at all. Just look at the cold air connection to the Northwest Territories. That's some pretty cold air for late October, and it's moving south. The air will warm a bit, since there isn't much snow cover north of us just yet, but be prepared for these kinds of low temperatures by the middle of next week:

When will we get rain chances back?

Recently, we've seen a trend toward drier weather (fall has a tendency to do that, given the drop in humidity and colder temperatures). But when should we expect to have a better shot at moisture? It's going to be awhile, and when I say that, it could be another 10-12 days. We need the upper level winds (or jet stream) at roughly 20,000 feet to swing back to the southwest. That's our best chance at getting measurable rain/snow. Here's what one computer model is hinting at toward the first weekend in November. Notice how the upper air winds go more west/southwest. That will help to warm things up, and just might lead to a setup that brings in some rainfall to the area. How far west and how MUCH... stay tuned.

Coldest air yet to move this way

October is going to end on a cold note for much of our area. We've already had a killing freeze for most of central and western Kansas. That happened back around the 10th/11th when we also had some light snow impact the area.

Well now, we are looking to next week when an even colder batch of air begins moving this way. Here's what will happen:

• A front will move through early Sunday, bringing temperatures down (but this won't even be the coldest yet

At 4pm Sunday, many areas will be seeing 30s and 40s for highs. That's a good 20° below average.

• The strongest front on the way will move through Tuesday morning, sending us even deeper into the cold, Canadian air. October will end on a pretty chilly note.

There will be a huge buckle in the jet stream (the steering winds at roughly 20,000-30,000 feet) and this is what will set us up for the cold. This particular pattern is also quite dry, so it's not likely that we will see much in the way of rain or snow throughout this area to finish off the month. When the winds come out of the northwest, most of the moisture gets pushed away from our immediate area. At this point, we may be waiting about another two weeks for a pattern to bring us some rain.

Hard freeze likely for everyone! We are expecting that by Tuesday AND certainly Wednesday, almost all areas will have an end to the growing season. Be sure to make sure your house/garden/vehicles are ready for the cold. This should be the biggest drop so far this fall.
Just look at some of these afternoon temperatures next Tuesday. BRRRR!

Tomorrow (Friday), I will update you on when we might begin to see another chance at some moisture. 

La Nina/El Nino - where are we heading into winter?

It's been months since any discussion has taken place here on the blog regarding El Nino or La Nina. Just as a refresher:

• La Nina - colder than normal water near the Equator in the Pacific
• El Nino - warmer than normal water near the Equator in the Pacific

Currently, we are in between so we call it "neutral" heading into winter, and may continue through spring too.

Here's a snapshot of a somewhat recent El Nino (2015) when water temperatures were VERY warm. It was one of the stronger El Nino events and you can see all of the red (warm water) piled up near the equator. That's what they look like from satellite measuring sensors. 

(El Nino setups typically yield wetter than normal weather for Kansas and the southern Plains)

On the flip side, La Nina has cooler water and the most recent one was back in 2011-12

 (La Nina in summertime - for Kansas- can be long, pronounced drought conditions)

So that means we might have an extra wild card in our winter forecast, which will be coming out next month. Just because there isn't an influence from the above phenomenon doesn't mean we will have more snow or less snow. It is still just one small factor to consider this winter.

Thursday rain/snow chance:

Looking less impressive, BUT there will still be some precipitation nearby. Some showers are still possible over southern Kansas (mainly south of a Dodge City to Wichita line). Some snow accumulations (on grassy areas) look possible out in New Mexico and southern Colorado. WE WILL get the colder weather, so winds, clouds, and colder temperatures will arrive. But the moisture looks pretty limited for this immediate area. Much of it will go south.

Forecast temperatures at the end of October and into November look chilly. If you haven't winterized your sprinkler system or had your furnace checked out, do it very soon. Some of the coldest air may arrive in the first 7 days of November. Stay tuned.

More cold coming AND another chance for some snow

Hope you had a great weekend. We did have some decent weather over the weekend and hope you had a chance to get out and enjoy some of it. This week, our forecasts will focus so much on different cold fronts that will impact our area. There are several lined up and ready to move this way.

First - a warming trend into midweek:

Should see a nice jump in temperatures for Tuesday/Wednesday (even though the days start out a bit chilly) - west and southwest winds will push us back up into the 60s and maybe some low 70s. And the cold front could be slicing Kansas in half by 4 p.m., but we are still expected to see some milder weather.

Next strong front:

After the front arrives Wednesday evening, we will begin to see some moisture squeezed out as the colder air settles in. There will be a chance for some SNOW! However, this isn't anything that will cancel school or close roads (it is October after all).

But I am expecting that some snow will show up by daybreak Thursday and might get as far east as central Kansas. Accumulation will be little more than some flakes on the side of the road (if that) because the moisture just isn't much and it doesn't hang around for very long. Farther south and east, it looks like a better chance for some cold rain showers, but even those won't last for more than 3 or 4 hours. The big headline will be the colder air.

We will go into detail on the NOAA winter outlook and I owe you an update on El Nino/La Nina soon. I'll get to that this week. Have a great day.

Early look toward Halloween & a meteor shower

If you are big into meteor showers, another one is getting closer to peak. The Orionid meteor shower will peak Monday night with roughly 20 meteors per hour if you can get away from the city lights.

The one thing to remember about meteor showers is that it rarely matters which way you look, but it's more important to get away from light pollution and find the darkest skies that you can. It's not one of the best meteor showers (given that we will have some moonlight), but we do expect fairly tranquil weather and with several clear skies ahead, it may be worth venturing out.

Early look to Halloween:

Just a couple weeks to go and we are getting a pretty good idea on what kind of weather conditions will be coming through the Plains. Exact details (such as wind, humidity, clouds) are a little uncertain, but the overall pattern is suggesting that we will likely be dry AND temperatures won't be that far out of line for late October. So if everything works out according to plan, this should be a pretty good year for kids getting out for trick-or-treating.

Little, if any rain for parts of Kansas the next few weeks:

Western Kansas will likely see drought conditions expand as the setup (into early November) doesn't look that encouraging for moisture. This isn't particularly one of our wetter times of the year anyway, but models are keeping most of the rains well north or east. Gulf of Mexico moisture can be hard to come by heading into winter, so approaching weather systems from the west may not have much to work with when they pass through Kansas.

NOAA will be releasing their winter forecast today (Thursday) and we will discuss it soon. We are still looking at the clues for winter (seasonal forecasts are quite a challenge), but every year we put out a winter forecast. One thing that is a little discouraging right now is the lack of precipitation. If this trend continues, it could be a long winter.

What to expect for late October - rain chance showing up again

Hope your week is off to a great start. It's been pretty wild around here with that blast of winter weather that hit late last week and now, we are seeing more late summer/early fall temperatures. September (as you might recall) was very warm and finished in the top 10 warmest for different areas of Kansas.

October so far has looked like this...

Much of the central and northern Plains have experienced colder than normal weather. Even though the month started well above average, the cooler days have taken control.

And rainfall for the first half of October has been spotty at best. 

Western Kansas has NOT been in the right spot for generous rains, but then again that's been pretty common for the last couple of months. Is this a sign of what's to come heading into winter? We are still analyzing and trying to figure it all out.

Closely watching a rain chance Friday evening (Oct. 18):

New model data (from Tuesday morning) are showing showers for some parts of central and eastern Kansas. It will be our 2nd cold front of the week, but it's moving so fast that there won't be enough time for much rain to develop. Models are suggesting the amounts will be .25" or less.

What's next?
I'm expecting our temperatures for the rest of this week to mainly be above average. That's how the week started out and it will wrap up with warmer than normal weather for Thursday and Friday. Our next front is coming Friday evening, but it's a Pacific front, so temperatures aren't going to drop that much for the weekend.

3rd full week of October:
Temperatures should be a little cooler than normal, but nothing that looks all that alarming. So I would expect mostly 60s for highs next week.

Rainfall chances aren't looking too good for the Plains. There should be some showers passing to the north of Kansas early in the week, but overall, much of our area looks dry for the final full week of the month.

The cold is here! And do you remember this from last year?

We are setting our focus on the cold that is about to hit Kansas. But do you remember what happened nearly a year ago to the date? It was a similar situation where we had early winter making an appearance in Kansas. And it DID set records!

On October 14th, 2018 the earliest measurable snow fell in Wichita. We ended up with .7" in south central Kansas. Dodge City also had snow, which was very early for the season.

The cold front will continue to plow through and should be through the entire state by 3 or 4 p.m. Severe storms are likely to develop to the east with a threat in southeast Kansas, parts of Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma. 

The biggest headline for Kansas will be the wind and colder temperatures. When you look at what we had Wednesday and where we will be by Thursday evening, it's just amazing. When the temperatures take a near 60° turn, you have to appreciate what Mother Nature can do. 

Frost/Freeze Alerts:

If you are west of a line from Salina to Medicine Lodge, you do want to be prepared for temperatures to fall into the low 30s (or colder) by Friday morning. In most cases, the fact that it stays windy tonight would normally help to keep us from dropping so far on our overnight temperatures, but this air is just that cold so the growing season will likely end in many places.
Saturday morning looks rather chilly too. Lows are expected in the 30-35° range.

Next week (week of Oct. 14) - we are getting back to some more typical October weather. Should be a pretty nice week.