Lack of rain is really frustrating & more records to set

The lack of rainfall continues to create some serious frustration around the state. I'm guessing most of us have moved into a "believe it when I see it" kind of mood anytime chances pop up in the forecast.

Weekend rainfall amounts will be far from enough to do much of any good. As of Friday night, here's where the August rainfall records stand:

Given the forecast of limited moisture between now and the end of the month, we will likely have ourselves a top 10 driest in many locations. 

It's also been a very hot month, but probably NOT a top 10 finisher. However, think about this for a moment:

We are likely going to tie for 2nd most "days at or above 90" in August. 

Setup next week:

The forecast is not at all very clear. We've seen so many different possibilities of what could setup. No matter what happens, odds for some good, soaking rain continue to be very low. There's a chance we could have some weak energy in the central Plains around Wednesday or Thursday (Aug. 31st/Sep 1), but even if we do, I think the best we could hope for are pop-up storms (or isolated). It's really sad. 

One model develops some very spotty rains mid-week, while a second model has nothing at all. It's about as clear as mud, and given our latest track record of getting rain, it's hard to be overly optimistic at this point. 

It's such a low confidence forecast that we've been holding off putting rain in the forecast - a false sense of hope is never good in these kinds of situations. 

Latest model outlook for September: It does offer some hope, but it doesn't look like the month ahead will be super productive for rain - but hoping it has more than July and August have had for Kansas.

Hurricane season (in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico) has been a dud so far:

Consider for a moment that the peak of the season is coming up September 10th. Only three named storms so far, and we are on track to have one of the longest gaps between named storms. Even though the season has been slow, there can still be quite a few systems between now and the end of November (when the season usually shuts down for good)

It does appear that as we head toward the Labor Day weekend, there could be a couple of tropical systems moving across the Atlantic (and perhaps the Gulf too), so be watching for some updates on that as the holiday draws near.

How does it compare - summer of 2011/12 to now

When the talk of "hot and dry" summers come up, there are some years that people quickly recall. Seems to me that 2012, 2011, and 1980 are the ones that get a mention. We know there are several other summers that were quite hot (and bone dry), but those are the ones that I hear about from time to time.

I remember 2011 and 2012 quite well because everything dried up and it was day after day of 100° weather. We haven't had that this summer, even though much of the state has had roughly twice as many 100s. My apologies for only pulling Wichita numbers here (due to time constraints), but we will look at other areas as time allows. 

I was a little surprised to see how much more rain fell in 2011 - the summer that had WAY more 100s than this summer. However, look at the difference in moisture. Nearly twice as much rain as what we've had this year. 

Here was the drought map from late August in 2011 (reminder that dark red is "exceptional" drought): 

The summer of 2012 (across the US) was hotter, even though the number of 100s did come down a bit, it was really dry (similar to this summer). Here was the drought map from late August in 2012:

Southwest Kansas continues to be in very rough shape. Even though yearly rainfall numbers aren't too far off the mark for central and eastern Kansas, the west is still hurting. Garden City hasn't even recorded 4 inches of rain for the YEAR! Average moisture to this point would be closer to 15". It's been a tough time in the southwest. 

What's ahead:

Chances for rain will be back Saturday - Sunday night. There's is a possibility we might carry the rain over to Monday, but if we do, it's most likely going to be mainly east. Despite what changes we might see in computer models between now and the weekend, it's a safe expectation that this will be a "scattered" storm chance, meaning some areas may not get much at all. Generally speaking, amounts will be higher in central and eastern Kansas, but doubtful that anybody gets enough to change the drought conditions. This seems more like a band-aid to the problem rather than a fix. However, we'll be grateful for anything. Friday night chances will be mainly Colorado to far western Kansas.

Chances will shift east for Saturday and Sunday. There will be a front coming through, but it's not bringing much (if any) cool air. Whatever "cool-down" we might have on Sunday would be associated with clouds and some storms - not necessarily the front itself.

I'll leave you with this - early September outlook for rain (compared to average) shows some hope. Rainfall average next month is about 2-3 inches for much of the state. A big shift toward wet weather is not likely, but one can hope for a little more moisture than what we've been getting as of late.

100s are behind us - now what about the drought

It appears that widespread 100s are now over with for the rest of the summer. While we didn't set any records for "most 100s in a season", we did have about twice as many as you might expect in a summer. Here's the latest count:

This is the most 100s in a season since the brutal summer of 2012 - another year with widespread drought and very hot weather. Some of you will recall summer of 2011 and we had 40-50 100s that summer too. Safe to call this one of the hottest summers in the last 10 years for the Plains states.

New drought map just out Thursday morning - getting worse in many areas:

Here's the pattern going into next week (our last full week of August) - and it's NOT encouraging at all for rain. 

Kansas will be sandwiched between very cool air just off to our east and much warmer weather west in the Rockies and back to the southwest. In this kind of setup, we won't have major heat for the Plains, but we also won't have unseasonably cool weather either. Average high right now is near 90, and that's roughly where we will be for much of the week.

Look at the rainfall forecast from Sunday - Friday: not good. It appears that ALL of the rain will find a way around us. Biggest moisture may end up in Texas as a front stalls through that area. 

There isn't a clear signal yet on when we break free of this unrelenting dry stretch, but we could be looking at some chances for rain across the entire area coming up at the end of next week (Friday - Sunday Aug. 26-28). It appears a storm will track across the central and northern Rockies, helping to drag some moisture this way. Here's a sneak peek at some early projections on how much (and it's not blockbuster at all):

One of the biggest factors right now - La Niña:

It still holds firm out in the Pacific Ocean (this is the cooler than average water near the equator). Water temperatures continue to be about 1°C below average, and this will be our 3rd winter in a row where this phenomenon has been in place. What this may mean for Kansas winter will come at a later time, but La Niña summers are notorious for being hot and dry. This La Nina probably won't weaken or go away completely until after this winter is behind us. 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here. Have a great day.

Almost there - signs that the major heat is behind us

A long, overdue does of some good news to share with you - the hottest stretches of summer are behind us as we look to some rather noticeable shifts. We have not had our last 100° day just yet - that is still waiting this weekend. However, the longest and hottest periods of summer are done.

The rest of this week will be hot, but given an easterly wind, that will help to keep us "near normal" for a change and likely under the century mark. 

However, as we hit the weekend, we will be strongarmed by a high pressure locked in over the central Plains. This means, more very hot weather and likely above 100 for just two days (Sunday and Monday). We might even set some record highs (or at least be close anyway). 

• Record high in Garden City Sunday: 104°
• Record high in Wichita Monday: 107°

Chances for rain are not in the lineup with this kind of upper pattern. Remember, under high pressure, the air sinks and is not helpful in developing storms.

Where's the change?

We see it taking place by the middle of next week (Aug 17/18) when a system drops into the northern US and across the Great Lakes. This should force some of the cooler weather south into the Plains. It's possible we will end up on the western fringe of it all, but there should be a nice change in temperatures taking place by the middle of the week. 

Will there be rain?

Always the big question, and what has been so elusive this summer. Right now, it appears that Tuesday night to Wednesday will have some potential with rain that would move from northwest to southeast across the state. I don't foresee this is as a heavy rain scenario, but this will be our next chance to see anything around the central US.

Look at this - just weeks away:

If models hold, we expect the end of August and early September to cool nicely across the eastern two-thirds of the country. 

Have a great day.

Another front closing in - what happened to hurricane season

We are closely watching and waiting to see if a front coming in during the weekend will be of any help to Kansas or if it will be just another dud. Late last week we had some nice rainfall in southwest and some parts of south central Kansas, but it wasn't enough and really failed to produce some of the advertised amounts. Summer storms can be so aggravating - in this case the front got pushed farther south and thus most of the heavier stuff went south. 

Saturday night (Aug. 6) - Most of the action is going to be north of Kansas and on the High Plains of Wyoming and Nebraska. If some of that reaches Kansas, it will be in the far northwest with very little chance of getting south of I-70.

Sunday night (Aug 7) - With some luck, we will have the front dipping farther south into the state, translating into a slightly better chance for northern Kansas to have some rain. The setup still favors widely SCATTERED rain - not widespread and heavy. 

Monday evening (Aug 8) - Odds are a few storms may try to develop along the front farther south (southwest and south central) either Monday evening or overnight. There are still some factors working against the rain chance, so it may not be anything to write home about. However, this appears to be the only thing on the horizon right now to help bring some rain. 

Get ready for some much cooler weather - even if for just a few days:

It's looking like Monday and Tuesday will have some cooler weather for the central/northern Plains. Highs should fall into the 80s for a couple of days, putting us back below normal for a change. This isn't something that will last for more than a few days, at least we will have some opportunity at heat relief. 

Hurricane Season update:

The Atlantic basin has been extremely quiet as of late and will probably remain that way for another week or so. The last name storm was Colin and as soon as the activity picks up again, our next named storm will be Danielle. 

If we look across Africa, you can see different areas of thunderstorms making their way to the west. That train of active weather will soon be into the Atlantic, and one would suspect that's where the season will pick back up once again (assuming other ingredients come together). It's completely normal for the trade winds to blow from east to west, which is why most of the tropical weather systems move from east to west. If the upper-level winds remain favorable, we may soon have some rapid development. 

Perseid Meteor Showers:

Get out and look for some meteors. Best viewing is likely this week/weekend because next week when the show peeks, we will be heading for full moon stage and that will wash out some of the faint meteors. I'm always amazed at how small these things are (about the size of a rice krispie) and they travel at roughly 37 miles/second. 

That's it for now - have a great day.