Possible record cold on the way

Very cold and possibly even colder weather is headed this way! That is the headline as we get ready to wrap up 2017.

The cold air floodgates are wide open and we could see some record cold air by the weekend. There have only been 4 times in the last 10 years where Wichita dropped below zero:

• -10 (Dec. 18th, 2016)
• -4 (Dec. 19, 2016)
• -5 (Jan. 6, 2014)
• -1 (Jan. 13, 2011)

This next batch of cold air comes straight from Siberia and because there is quite a bit of snow on the ground between here and there, the air won't be warming up before it arrives. 

Are you ready for this? Look at some of the wind chills we could be dealing with heading into New Years Eve and New Years Day.

And look at these wind chills for New Years Day around Kansas.

There's still no sign of a storm yet, but as the next big surge of bitter cold moves in this weekend, light snow bands may setup across central and northern Kansas. The problem is there isn't much moisture content when temperatures drop so low. One of our computer models is hinting at some 1-3" amounts by Sunday afternoon, but the higher amounts will most likely be somewhat isolated. 

Have a Happy New Year and stay warm. We will see if record lows can be broken this weekend as this next big blast of cold arrives.

Welcome to winter and chances for snow arrive

Winter begins at 10:28 AM today (Thursday)! There's only 9.5 hours of daylight today, which does make this the shortest amount of daylight in the year. Sunsets will get later as we move forward, but sunrise doesn't get any earlier until about the middle of January.

The highly advertised cold snap is finally here! There's no stopping this big change, but it's not going to be anything record setting. It's just a big turn from where we have been recently. The system dragging in the cold air just dumped nearly a foot of snow on Bozeman, MT.

And roads in Billings, MT were completely snowpacked Wednesday evening.

Wichita right now has the 2nd warmest December on record! But this approaching cold snap will knock that back significantly.

Snow Chances this weekend: We do have a fast moving system coming in from the west Saturday - Sunday. The timing couldn't be more perfect for those wanting some Christmas snow.

• The track - basically west to east (from Colorado across Kansas)
• This kind of setup doesn't normally produce anything more than just a light dusting to maybe an inch. 
• What does fall will likely stick as temperatures will stay rather chilly through the weekend

Possible storm later next week: Details on what may develop toward the end of next week are uncertain to say the least. However, the data we look at continues to suggest some moisture may move into Kansas around Thursday (Dec. 28). We introduced this into the 10 day forecast last night on the air, but just a heads up for holiday travelers. Right now, it doesn't look like a big snow maker given the track it may take, but so much can change as we get closer. 

Cold coming - Could we still get snow?

Less than one week to go before Christmas and the forecast is coming into better focus. You may have glanced at our white Christmas forecast that we posted last weekend, and there aren't too many changes to our initial thoughts. We thought northwest Kansas might have a chance and there could be just enough snow there to classify it as "white". Much of the state is unlikely to have 1" or more of snow on the ground Christmas morning, but there will some flurries this weekend. First, it has to get much colder.

Here's the timing of the front arriving Thursday:
The front will already be through much of western Kansas by daybreak.
It will turn quite windy and cloudy too, but there's not going to be much falling out of the clouds as the colder air rushes in.

By midday, the cold front will be pushing through central Kansas, so watch for the wind shift to take place.

Around 6 p.m., the front should be into southeast Kansas. Most of us will be looking at falling temperatures and wind chills by early evening.

How much snow between now and Christmas:
We don't have a storm coming to Kansas. So in the absence of anything organized, we aren't going to get much snow to fall around here. Travel this weekend in Kansas and many surrounding areas looks fine, BUT... we do have a chance for some flurries.

This is the European Model - showing a little more accumulation in the NW

This is the GFS model

Most of the models give Kansas less than .5" of snow. It takes a good supply of moisture to get decent snow (with it being so cold), but that setup just isn't going to be there.

Millie and I will enjoy one more day off (today - Tuesday), then we will be back on the air to track the big change Wednesday and Thursday.

White Christmas Update

Thanks for spending a few minutes reading the blog. I enjoy sharing my thoughts with you as to what I'm seeing in the latest model trends. It's almost like drinking from a fire hose as we get bombarded with new information all the time. And I'm sure you've seen some WILD predictions as to what kind of weather we will have around here on Christmas. That source has been very wrong many, many times. Before you begin to plan your holiday, let's look at the setup.

Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: Expect it to be somewhat nice and mild for the beginning of the week.

Late week shift: The system to watch is coming from the Pacific Northwest and it's going to latch on to some very cold air, which will arrive in Kansas in the Thursday/Friday time frame. This will be the coldest air yet this season.

How far south will the storm go? That's what meteorologists up and down the Plains states will be trying to figure out, but it does appear as if the Christmas storm is going to stay south. So given this kind of setup, we are not likely to see snow on the ground in Kansas for Christmas day. We definite a white Christmas as having at least 1" of snow.

And it's not just one model showing this particular setup, but several of them have been showing a better chance for snow in the Oklahoma and Texas (compared to what Kansas would see). It's just been a strange fall/early winter and it may continue for awhile longer.

Are we ever going to get rain/snow again?

I know many of us are losing our patience when it comes to this dry weather we are having in Kansas. But it's not just here. Colorado went 65 days with no measurable snow, but that finally ended this morning. And there's going to be a storm this weekend in Plains, but it's not going to be very helpful in ending the dry pattern.

I-70 in Colorado this morning

Westminster, CO (courtesy Paul Romero)

Today (Thursday):
The system passing through Kansas today does little more than produce some clouds and a couple of quick passing showers. Any rainfall today will be under .10"

Weekend storm pushes in:
This is unfortunate to say the least. A nice storm system will setup this weekend in the Plains, but because it's not very organized and the track isn't ideal, we aren't going to get anything out of it. It will bring some wind to Kansas Saturday, then some clouds Sunday, but chance for snow stay well northwest of us and the rain misses us to the south.

Next Week:
Most of the week will be pretty quiet (aka. DRY), but late in the week, we FINALLY see a change setting up to our west. Is this the storm that brings an end to the dry spell? There is a chance. We need to see more data and a couple more model runs to get a feel for what could happen, but just in time for Christmas, a storm could be approaching the Plains. And it looks to be turning much colder across a big chunk of the central and northern Plains. Get ready. If you plan to travel the weekend BEFORE Christmas, I think we're going to be just fine in Kansas and surrounding areas.

Please note: You are going to see some wild predictions on FB and other social media platforms. Please be cautious in the information you consume as it may come from sources that have no credible background.

Geminids Meteor Shower... get ready!!

The weather remains very quiet in Kansas and at least one benefit is the chance to enjoy what could be the best meteor shower all year. Here's what you need to know to get ready for the Geminids.

First, no moonlight! That's right, the moon isn't going to come up until 4:06 a.m. and it's in the waning crescent stage. So no extra light to wash away meteors.

Second, the Geminids coincides with its parent asteroid, which will only add to the number of meteors that we might see. So it is possible, if you get to a dark, rural area that you might see over 100 per hour. That's a good show.

You will want to look toward the east early in the evening, but as the night continues, you will eventually start looking straight up.

Most meteor showers peak in the early morning hours (and this one will too), but what is so special about this one is that after 9 p.m., you could start to see quite a few about 30° above the eastern horizon.

Forecast for Wed. Night: Mostly clear (there will be some high clouds passing through, but I still think the brighter meteors will shine through just fine) - temperatures will be down in the 30s/low 40s early evening, but if you wait until early Thursday morning, you can expect temperatures down in the 20s for most areas.

Remember the ice storm of 2007?

The weather has been so nice around Kansas lately that it's easy to forget what it CAN be like this time of year. Do you remember this horrific ice storm 10 years ago this weekend?

Let's look at the setup and realize just how different it is compared to what is happening now. 

That year, we had a very deep and strong storm setup in Mexico and the desert Southwest. Almost all of the significant storms in Kansas come from that direction. They have to in order to ingest rich, Gulf moisture. 

As the storm approached, we had a tremendous amount of COLD air locked in over the central Plains. In fact, look at the 6 a.m. temperatures on the morning of the 10th. We were down around 20 degrees. Plenty of cold to get ice, and several places had 1-2" of accumulation. 

It was the costliest ice storm in Kansas history, with roughly 260,000 without power. Damage estimates on the electrical grid were around $136.2 million. These pictures are from Reno county and other areas of south central Kansas.

Just look how different the weather pattern is right now. The setup is completely opposite of what it was back in 2007. Our upper level winds are coming in from the northwest (not the southwest), and that continues to shove any chance for rain or snow off to the east. 

Have a great weekend and see you back on the air Monday night.

No snow early in the season means...

Actually nothing... and here's the reason why. Some of you are very anxious to have some snow because the last two seasons have been duds.

Well take a look at this:

The average first 1" of snow for most of Kansas happens in the month of December. But look back to the winter of 2010-11, the first inch of snow didn't come until January. That season went on to have over 17 inches of snow.

And take Boston, Massachusetts for example. Two winters ago had record low snow into early January, only to go on and have a record 107 inches of snow. We won't be getting 100 inches in Kansas this winter. It's highly unlikely we would even get close to 25", but just because the season gets off to a slow start with snow has no bearing on what comes later in the season.

The destructive California wildfires are driven by the Santa Ana winds (right where I have "stubborn ridge" labeled on the map below. Until we can break that high pressure down on the west coast, our chances for moisture continue to be near zero. 

There isn't much hope of breaking that setup next week. So as tough as it can be, we just have to continue to wait on this to break.

The warm water just off the California coast favors a high pressure system to setup there, which down the stretch isn't good news for Kansas. Our wettest and most productive storm systems come from the southwest, and until we can replace the high pressure in the west, the waiting game continues. 

 Of all places getting snow right now... southwest Texas. Can you believe this? An area that averages less than 5 inches of snow is seeing 3-6 even before Kansas gets 1".

The cold is here - will this pattern bring snow?

We are approaching the one year mark since Wichita had any measurable snow and not far behind Dodge City. It's been about 1,400 days since our last 5 inch snow event.

The storm system that rolled across the northern Plains yesterday dropped 2-4 inches in many spots and created blizzard conditions in South Dakota. But for early December, there still isn't much snow cover between here and Canada. Most of it continues to be in the mountainous areas.

The weather pattern we are seeing right now is one that we will likely see quite often during the winter. And it's going to mean several cold snaps will happen throughout the central Plains and upper Midwest. It's very typical of a La Nina winter, and that's what we are in right now.

As long as the upper level winds continue from the north-northwest, our chances of getting any moisture will remain VERY low. This is just not a good setup for Kansas considering how dry we are around here.

Looking into next week, there won't be much change taking place. We continue to see colder air pushing out of Canada. It's likely we will continue with highs in the 40s and 50s through our second full week of December. 

December outlook

Welcome to December and on average (for some parts of the state) our snowiest month of the year. Most of Kansas averages 3-6 inches of snow, but what are the chances we will see that this month.

Lets look at the setup for the next 10-12 days:
Upper level winds will be coming straight out of the north, so much chillier weather is going to spread over the central and eastern parts of the US. Kansas will be in and out of cold snaps, but it should NOT be a continuous two week period of bitter cold. Unfortunately, this kind of setup is also extremely dry. So I don't see us getting any rain or snow in the first half of December.

Mid-December:
More cold air could be pushing south from Canada, diving down through Kansas and surrounding areas. But once again, this kind of setup is not a precipitation maker for the Plains. So dry weather will likely continue through the middle of the month.

Week before Christmas:
Some signs point toward a warming trend for the central US in the week before Christmas. Unfortunately, this is not looking like a year for a white Christmas. Bitter cold continues for the east coast, but for the Plains, we may be warming up for a short period.

After Christmas:
Our best chances for moisture may come toward the end of the month. If the longer range models have a clue (and sometimes they don't), there's a possibility some active weather may push in from the west. So we will keep an eye on the last 10 days of December for hopefully a chance at some moisture.