Goodbye cold February - March in like a lamb

February 2021 is one we probably won't forget for some time after the incredible cold snap that hit much of the United States, and in particular the central and southern Plains. Just look at the map below for Feb. 2021 and you quickly get a sense of just how much of the country was colder than normal. And from Oklahoma to Canada, it was 15 to 20° below average.

The official number will change, but this month will likely go down as a top 10 coldest Februarys in many areas of Kansas. 

And in Dodge City:

March - a month that can get really wild around Kansas. If you lived here for awhile, you know what I mean. Blizzard in western Kansas and tornadoes in the east. It has happened before, but the month looks like it will come in like a lamb. Normal highs start off in the low 50s and jump to the low 60s by the end of the month. Daylight Saving Time will begin on March 14th. And the vernal equinox happens on March 20th.

Our first March storm should be arriving later next week. At this time, it sure doesn't look like a major storm or anything out of the ordinary, but rain and some snow should return late in the week. Given the temperatures leading up to the event, I'm expecting mostly rain, but there's a chance for snow in western Kansas too. 

March, as a whole, will probably end up with near normal precipitation (see the "March Stats" to learn more about what is average). The persistent storm track in from the west is going to continue, so we will have several opportunities for rain and snow throughout the month.

And although March starts off mild, I'm expecting another cold spell either mid or late March. Don't worry, it won't be what it was in February, but could be a stretch of highs in the 30s and 40s. 

Trending up, but is the last of the Arctic air?

We are SOOOO close to getting back above freezing, but there's still some time to add to the ongoing "consecutive days below freezing" count before this snap is over. Here's the latest count:

Counting through Wednesday, we are 11 days in a row below 32°. That means this is the longest subfreezing spell since 1983. It would be unlikely to get to 18 days (which is what happened in Dec. 1983) given the current forecast, but we do have a chance of cracking the top 10 longest in Wichita's history any way.

We are headed for "milder" weather at the end of the week, but here's the catch:

Notice the white arrows pointing toward Kansas? That indicates a south wind, which is normally a nice, warming wind direction for the Plains. However, because that air coming from the south will pass over snowpack, the air gets cooled and has a strong tendency to develop clouds. That should happen this Friday/weekend, so just how warm we get is in question. It will be MUCH different though compared to last weekend and I still think we will get above freezing.

Last week of February is MILD!

You could say well deserved, but glancing at temperatures for next week, we are headed for 50s and maybe brushing 60. It will be a nice switch up in the weather pattern.

Winter isn't over just yet:

I think we will have at least one more Arctic blast, but I don't expect it will be anything like what has just transpired. Heading into early March, models are hinting at colder than normal weather, but not 40-50 below normal. March can be a wild month in Kansas (as most of us know), with severe thunderstorms and a blizzard at the same time. It could be that the month may start off like a lion, or maybe lion-ish with colder than normal weather. Details to come.

Ancient records fall with one more snow event in our near future

Record low temperatures, some that are more than 100 years old, are being rewritten by this latest cold snap in the Plains. This brutal stretch of weather is one that we won't soon forget (even though we'd probably like to). It's the right combination of ingredients coming together to make this one of the longest subfreezing stretches on record for different areas in Kansas. 

Here's a small sample of some of the records - and we aren't finished until we see the temperature get back above 32°.

• The record low from Salina on Monday dates back to 1905
• Record low in Wichita for Tuesday goes back to 1903

The Arctic high is beginning to weaken now, so we will start seeing temperatures go back up, even if it is a slow process. Our expectations is that by Friday, much of the Plains will finally be getting back to near freezing. 

 Another snow event tracking toward Kansas Tuesday/Wednesday:

This is yet another in a series of systems tracking in from the west that will spread some snow across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Given the forecast track, duration of snow, and temperatures, we don't think this system will produce much more than some 1-3 inch amounts over south central and southeast Kansas. There could be some higher totals in Oklahoma, but it's not one to hang around long.

 There is definitely light at the end of the tunnel, even if it feels like forever away. We expect Friday will be our first day getting back to freezing for most of Kansas. That will mark the end of a 12 day stretch below freezing in much of the state. Woohoo!!

1" of snow, 15", or 30" ???

Appreciate your interest on the blog as we get ready for not only some ridiculous temperatures AND wind chills, but more snow. A social media snow forecast posted Wednesday was all the buzz and prompted many questions. Will Kansas see that much? Why aren't you forecasting that much snow? Is it really going to be that bad? There is strong potential of heavier snow later in the weekend and it could be one of the more significant snows of the winter. 

First wave of snow - Friday/Saturday:

A dry, powdery snow is expected to begin in western Kansas Friday and move southeast into the night and continue Saturday. This should be a solid 1-3 inch snow for much of the state. As cold as it is, it will take about 20-25 inches of snow to get 1" of actually liquid. So it takes a lot of moisture to get heavier snow.

Second wave of snow - Sunday-Monday :

This one looks heavier, but also comes at a time when it will be VERY cold. I think we will already have 1-3 inches on the ground in many places, so we will have a head start when the brunt of the storm gets going. Given what we are seeing this morning, it is safe to expect the heaviest snow (which will probably end up being 7 inches or more), for the southern half of Kansas. Farther north, especially north of I-70, I would expect at least 3-6 in the Sunday/Monday time frame. We will fine tune this forecast and put some more numbers down on the map after looking at new data Thursday afternoon.

Why so cold?

The cold air is has been pushed up against the Rockies with no place to go. And our winds have been out of the northeast, continuing to funnel the cold air right into the region. We've also had an upper low spinning near the Great Lakes, which continues to push the bitter cold south. It's almost like the perfect storm of cold weather - I have never seen this in my 20 years of forecasting in Kansas. 

How much longer?

 

The center of the Arctic air hits Sunday/Monday when the high pressure slides into Nebraska and Iowa. That's when we have a strong chance of seeing record lows Monday morning and maybe even Tuesday morning. Once this high pushes east of us, we will begin to scale back the cold little by little. What will temper the upward trend is the snow cover. 

Extreme cold with records likely soon

Thanks for stopping by to check in on the extreme cold that we are heading into as the week continues. We are only three days into this deep freeze, and it will last much longer before we turn the corner on things. 

Remember, 10 days below freezing hasn't happened since the late 80s, but we should easily break through that with how things are setting up. Twenty four days is Wichita's longest stretch staying below 32°

How cold will things still get:

We just haven't seen the worst of it yet and won't until we get to the weekend. That's when the heart of the Siberian air will have settled over the Plains. Just compare the temperatures as we work our way through the rest of the week.

• Wednesday

• Friday

             

• Sunday (this is when we should be reaching our coldest yet)

We can't overlook the wind chills that we will have heading into the weekend, because numbers like the ones shown below will lead to frostbite in under 15 minutes. We just don't see these kinds of numbers around Kansas in most winter seasons. 

Snow is coming and it could be several inches for the area: 

This is not a classic storm where we have to watch the track of the low. The setup for Friday - Sunday morning is a widespread area of light snow that will develop over the Rockies and central Plains and just hang around for about 48 hours. Because its so cold, the snow that falls will be very powdery and contain very little appreciable moisture.

It would take about 25 to 30 inches of snow to get 1 inch of actual moisture. But it could very easily snow most of Friday afternoon, all day Saturday, and then end Saturday night. Travel is going to be tough this weekend around the Plains. 

Please be careful out there and stay warm.

Potential historic cold - and some snow mixed in

It is not very often we forecast something that will likely be historic. In many cases, it is not fully known until after the fact when all is added up or further evidence suggest it was historic. However, what is about to setup for the Plains has a strong possibility of being something we won't soon forget. It does have a chance of making it into the history books.

Longest subfreezing stretches for Wichita:

We won't have 24 days in a row, so that record will stand (no question). In order for us to crack the top 10 (for most consecutive days staying below freezing), we would need 13 days. That's possible, but right now I'm thinking we might go 10 days, but if we end up with some snow on the ground, it may extend further. 

Why will it be so cold for so many days?

There will be a large low gyrating north of the Great Lakes and that will keep pulling the cold air from Canada and up around the Arctic Circle. This gets lodged right up against the Rockies and has no place to go. And this bitter cold should go all the way down into the deep South next week. 

And just when we might be getting tired of the cold, it keeps pushing down on us. On the maps shown below, I've plotted the freezing line in red so you can see just how far south it gets as the week rolls on. 

 There will be some chances for snow mixed in during the week too. Major winter storms are unlikely with the setup, but a couple rounds of light snow should be expected. Some of the better chances will likely show up Monday and Thursday. 

Here is a preview of Thursday on the computer models:

At this time, accumulations will likely be under two inches given the amount of cold air and available moisture. Typically when it gets really cold, you need a deeper supply of moisture for big snows and I don't see that setup over the next week - 10 days. 

Major cold - and maybe in a LONG time

February is the last month in "meteorological" winter, but in recent winters, it sure seems like the coldest air of the season shows up at this time. That may very well be the case this year too. Arctic cold has been avoiding Kansas, and while most of you reading this are probably okay with that, it would be quite strange to not have at least one good dose of it before spring.

Here's where the very cold air is building up - central and northern Canada. We can even trace this air back to Siberia (Russia), so we aren't messing around when we say it will be cold. Thursday evening, look at the negative numbers in Fort Simpson and Yellowknife. Wow.

At this time, I don't expect to have record low temperatures, but the duration of the cold could be significant. Falling below freezing for a couple of days in a row is not really noteworthy, but if it lasts for 5 or 6 days consecutively, that's different. And that could be where we are headed.

Here's an example of what we are up against:

 

 

And Wednesday preview:

 

In my limited research on Tuesday, I found that back in 2014, Wichita did have a 7 day period in February that was below freezing. Since then, they have all been fairly brief, mainly 4 days or less. So lets keep that in mind as we start preparing for this period coming up.

Snow chances - they are mixed in from time to time. I don't foresee any big storms coming through the area. In fact, we are moving into a kind of setup that will favor just light precipitation (if any at all). Upper level winds will be coming out of the northwest, so a heavy snow event would seem unlikely for Kansas in the near future.

A chance for snow sets up for Saturday:

And we will need to watch the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame next week (this could be a case of light snow and some freezing drizzle)

 

 

 Have a great day and get ready for the cold.