Friday, February 5, 2021

Potential historic cold - and some snow mixed in

It is not very often we forecast something that will likely be historic. In many cases, it is not fully known until after the fact when all is added up or further evidence suggest it was historic. However, what is about to setup for the Plains has a strong possibility of being something we won't soon forget. It does have a chance of making it into the history books.

Longest subfreezing stretches for Wichita:

We won't have 24 days in a row, so that record will stand (no question). In order for us to crack the top 10 (for most consecutive days staying below freezing), we would need 13 days. That's possible, but right now I'm thinking we might go 10 days, but if we end up with some snow on the ground, it may extend further. 

Why will it be so cold for so many days?
There will be a large low gyrating north of the Great Lakes and that will keep pulling the cold air from Canada and up around the Arctic Circle. This gets lodged right up against the Rockies and has no place to go. And this bitter cold should go all the way down into the deep South next week. 

And just when we might be getting tired of the cold, it keeps pushing down on us. On the maps shown below, I've plotted the freezing line in red so you can see just how far south it gets as the week rolls on. 





 There will be some chances for snow mixed in during the week too. Major winter storms are unlikely with the setup, but a couple rounds of light snow should be expected. Some of the better chances will likely show up Monday and Thursday. 
Here is a preview of Thursday on the computer models:

At this time, accumulations will likely be under two inches given the amount of cold air and available moisture. Typically when it gets really cold, you need a deeper supply of moisture for big snows and I don't see that setup over the next week - 10 days. 

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