Winter forecast 2025-26

Whether you like the season or not, winter weather is always a big point of discussion this time of year. Two questions that come up routinely in conversation are "how bad is the winter going to be", or "how much snow are we going to get". It seems like we start getting these questions around state fair time onward. 

These long-range forecasts are difficult, and there's a great deal of analyzing and thought put into what we release, but at the end of the day, nobody has the answers. Still, we do what we can so you have an understanding of what might be ahead in the coming months. 

❄Last Winter:

It was a snowy one for south central Kansas, but other areas of the state just had "average" snow. Most of it didn't arrive until January and February, with almost 0 snow reported in December 2024.

❄This Winter:

It's highly possible the main snow tracks this winter will be farther north (through Nebraska, Iowa, northern Missouri, and the upper Midwest), so although there are some similarities to the setup from last winter, parts of the state will not be as snowy this winter (like Wichita). However, northern Kansas could be snowier this winter compared to last.

Two interesting factors: La Nina in the Pacific (south of Hawaii) and a very warm Gulf of Alaska. This was the case last winter too, but the water off the coast of Alaska is just a bit warmer. I'm starting to think this will favor high pressure in that region, which in turn will force more Arctic air to slide east of the Rockies (pushing down into the US). This could be a routine occurrence throughout the winter.

The La Nina is essentially of the same strength and magnitude as it was last winter.

La Nina also favors colder than average weather across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Kansas will be on the western fringe of most of it, but there will be some stretches ahead where it stays quite cold for several consecutive days (but not likely weeks on end).

We should have a couple of wet storms coming out of the Southwest between now and March, but when they arrive, it may not be cold enough for snow. It's entirely possible that we'll have a wet winter overall, but it won't all be snow and it may come with just a few stronger low pressure systems.

Every year, each member of the weather team submits a snow prediction. Most of us might have some simple methodology in how we arrive at our numbers, but in the end, it is a forecast and not a guarantee. We do the best we can with what we have and hope that it is helpful in some fashion. And in case you're wondering, there's no prize awarded to the team member who gets closest 😊

Coming soon - colder and more active

Maybe this comes as no surprise when you think about mid-late November, but with Thanksgiving coming up and our winter forecast out soon, we want to highlight some of the stuff we are looking at behind the scenes. After the two-day cold snap that hit Nov. 9/10, it's about to turn colder and stay cold as we hit the end of the month and all of December may be very, very chilly. More about that in a second. 

First, let's focus on what's arriving as we move through the second half of November. A series of systems coming off the West coast will increase the likelihood of wetter than average weather for Kansas. This isn't a particularly wet time of the year, but compared to "average", it certainly looks like rain is ramping up.

There are several systems lined up and ready to move east - different from the beginning of the month when most of the active weather went across the northern US. The "active" weather could include chances for rain and snow, but as always, those specific details get ironed out with time. 

There are several factors we are closely monitoring heading into the start of winter. Lately, the Arctic Oscillation has been negative and remains that way for the remainder of November and into December. That by itself is NOT a promise of an extended period of colder weather, but since we are seeing signs of ridging (or high pressure) setting up west of the Rockies, it could be foretelling of bitter cold cutting across the northern Rockies and draining right down into Kansas.

Definitely want to be ready for much chillier weather as we move into Thanksgiving and beyond. Several factors lining up and many models are now locked in on the colder pattern ahead.

A half-and-half November ahead

Thanks for taking some time to read & get a better understanding of what may be coming in the month of November. We have much to be grateful for this Thanksgiving season because we are mostly out of drought and the welcome rains this summer and through the fall have been a real blessing. 

October was a definite split between a LONG stretch of 80s that dominated the first half of the month and some more comfortably cool weather to wrap up the month. Now that the month is in the books, it ranks in the top 15 warmest (falling just out of top 10 for many because of the cooler end of the month).

Could November be another split month (first half warm, second half colder)?

It sure looks that way to me. All indications are the jet stream will remain farther north for the beginning of the month, allowing temperatures to be above average. 

Beginning of November:

The jet stream is likely to remain well north of Kansas through the first 10-12 days of the new month. That means fewer chances for rain and little to no cold air. We will continue to have a series of cold fronts coming through, but they aren't going to have significant impacts on temperatures.

2nd week of November:

Even into the second week of the month, it looks relatively quiet. However, I do think that as we approach the 14th of the month, we will start to see a switch in the main patter. The upper level winds should turn back to the southwest, and that's when the moisture should return.

3rd week of November:

Notice in the image above, the dark blue in the Southwest. That represents low pressure favored there, and with that kind of setup, you would think chances for rain would increase for the Plains. That also shows up in this rainfall forecast for mid-month. The shades of green represent wetter than average conditions, which is suggested for the eastern half of the state.

End of November (including Thanksgiving):

While making a forecast for Thanksgiving Day is tough at the beginning of the month, there's a reasonable chance we will not have anything too extreme (heat or cold) when the holiday arrives. However, the pattern still has low pressure favored in the West, and that could mean some active weather - potential both rain and snow - for late November. 

We should keep an eye on mid-late November because that when most of the models showcase a more active setup for our immediate area.

What's of interest in making a winter forecast - it will be interesting to see how a VERY warm northern Pacific Ocean influences the jet stream into the winter months. It's something we continue to study before releasing our winter forecast later in the month. Of course, we've talked about La Nina before, and you can see that on the map below. The blue colors along the Equator represent the cooler than average water south of Hawaii. We do know that tends to favor a colder winter across the Plains states. While not necessarily strong this winter, it can lead to more persistent shots of cold, Arctic air as we go deeper into winter. 

 Thanks for reading!