Incoming La Nina - could we still have a wet summer?

Most of you have heard by now that El Nino is all but dead and the incoming La Nina is ready to take over. We've talked about the La Nina influence on Kansas summers, and they lean toward dry & hot (Precisely what most of us can't afford to have right now because we haven't fully recovered from the last drought).

Before we go much further, here's what the latest water temperatures (compared to average) look like across the Pacific basin:

That area of colder water along the equator is advancing westward pretty quickly, so I would expect in the next 60-75 days, we will be in La Nina. The last such case of an incoming La Nina in mid-late spring did what for the summer season? Let's take a look!

It happened as recently as 2020. That was a spring with virtually no tornadoes (we would go on to have a total of 17 in Kansas for the whole year). Here's what the ocean temperatures were doing in May of that year:

Notice the onset of the colder water over the eastern Pacific (along the equator). That would go on to be the start of THREE years of La Nina! 

Here's what we had for rainfall in June of 2020: Yellow, orange, and red are representative of drier than normal conditions for the month. Most rain happened to be in central and northcentral Kansas. Bone dry in the Flint Hills. 

And here's what we saw in July - huge rainfall in many areas of Kansas! Those purple colors represent rainfall that was more than 4 inches above the average, and it covered a good portion of the state. It is very possible to get good moisture in a La Nina summer, but chances are much lower than they would be if we were in an El Nino setup.

August 2020: turned off drier, and temperatures were near normal for most of the Plains. 

Unless the second half of May turns off really wet, this is likely to go down as a "top 10 driest spring". Wichita has been knocked out of top 10, but just about every other location that we are keeping tabs on remains in the hunt. 

What does the upcoming 30 days look like for rainfall? Average rainfall for western Kansas would be roughly 2.5-3 inches in most locations, but farther east, you would expect anywhere from 4 to as many as 6 inches. 

It's not that western Kansas won't get rain, but it looks drier than normal for most areas. That's not going to surprise anybody as it ties in with the latest trends. If there's an area that's favored for wetter than average conditions, it would be south central/eastern Kansas. Areas east of Kansas should get pretty generous rainfall. 

Spring records with rain/tornadoes

The peak of severe weather season is upon us and after a rough start to the month of May (which isn't surprising, really), the tornado count had another big jump this week. May 6 had some violent weather in Oklahoma with the Barnsdall tornado. May 7 had damaging storms in the upper Midwest in Michigan. Tennessee and Alabama were lit up with significant storms May 8th. (See the graph below)

Notice the red line surging above the black line. Red is the current count for the United States, while the black line is "average"- roughly 538 tornadoes through May 8.

Kansas tornado numbers are up too, compared to recent years. I've been asked multiple times in recent years if Kansas is no longer "Tornado Alley", but this year proves that we are still indeed a prone area for them, even if we haven't had widespread damage or an EF4/5 (nobody wants that). Remember that tornado records go back to 1950, and I only looked at the last 10 years for the sake of time. 

Only 2015 has more tornadoes (through May 9th)!

I've taken a few emails from viewers upset that I only focus on drought these days. It's like we are beating a dead horse, and we are all so tired of discussing it and seeing the drought maps. However, we can't turn a blind eye to it and pretend it's not there. Most of Kansas is experiencing its top 10 driest springs (March - May) on record. 

7 Day Rainfall (May 10-17): Average amounts expected for the timeframe - which would be about .50-1" for western Kansas, and roughly 1-2" for central and eastern Kansas. We have the Mother's Day system coming through, followed by a front May 15th. 

7 Day Rainfall (May 18-24): We will likely move toward some drier and much warmer weather in our 3rd full week of the month. My suspicion is a high pressure ridge will pass through the central and northern Plains, and it could wipe out any decent shot at rain.

I think there is a chance for more active weather/slightly better chance at rain approaching Memorial Day weekend. 

Thanks for reading! Have a great day