How does that compare to recent years? Since 2000, here's what we have:
That would make 2024 the 7th busiest start since 2000 (with respect to tornadoes only).
We've said before that this does not give any clear signal to how the rest of the season will go. Some years start extremely quiet, but then suddenly explode just weeks later. Other times, very active starts go dormant in just a matter of days.
We are up against another chance for some severe storms on Saturday (April 6th) with a big low emerging from the western part of the US. There are several factors that we look at when making predictions for severe weather, but one limiting ingredient might be the overall amount of humidity that we have to work with.
Upper-level winds (shown below) coming in from the southwest are quite strong (generally 80-100 mph), which can set the stage for some rotating storms. It doesn't necessarily mean our tornado threat will be anything to get overly concerned about, but it can help to bump up the hail threat as storms develop. At the ground, the wind will likely be out of the south or southeast, and some of the gusts will be 40-50+.
Unless there is some drastic change in the setup, storms will fire up around 5/6pm and race to the east and northeast. Given how fast storms will move, it will more than likely limit just how much rain can be squeezed out of this setup.
Saturday severe weather outlook should be east of a Russell to Pratt line, and timing will more than likely be after 4/5pm:
The Great American Solar Eclipse:
The forecast is actually looking pretty decent. There will be some higher clouds passing across the central and southern Plains, but this particular kind of overcast will be of the higher, thin variety which should not completely block our view of the sun. The kind of clouds we don't want are the stratus (low level), or even thick mid-level clouds. I don't think we will see that kind of overcast in Kansas or for areas just south of us in the path of totality.
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