Cold coming - Could we still get snow?

Less than one week to go before Christmas and the forecast is coming into better focus. You may have glanced at our white Christmas forecast that we posted last weekend, and there aren't too many changes to our initial thoughts. We thought northwest Kansas might have a chance and there could be just enough snow there to classify it as "white". Much of the state is unlikely to have 1" or more of snow on the ground Christmas morning, but there will some flurries this weekend. First, it has to get much colder.

Here's the timing of the front arriving Thursday:
The front will already be through much of western Kansas by daybreak.
It will turn quite windy and cloudy too, but there's not going to be much falling out of the clouds as the colder air rushes in.

By midday, the cold front will be pushing through central Kansas, so watch for the wind shift to take place.

Around 6 p.m., the front should be into southeast Kansas. Most of us will be looking at falling temperatures and wind chills by early evening.

How much snow between now and Christmas:
We don't have a storm coming to Kansas. So in the absence of anything organized, we aren't going to get much snow to fall around here. Travel this weekend in Kansas and many surrounding areas looks fine, BUT... we do have a chance for some flurries.

This is the European Model - showing a little more accumulation in the NW

This is the GFS model

Most of the models give Kansas less than .5" of snow. It takes a good supply of moisture to get decent snow (with it being so cold), but that setup just isn't going to be there.

Millie and I will enjoy one more day off (today - Tuesday), then we will be back on the air to track the big change Wednesday and Thursday.