Friday, July 13, 2018

Is the hottest part of summer over?

Have we experienced the hottest part of summer?
If you look strictly at the averages, one might answer that with "no". But I'm seeing signs that we may be past the hottest temperatures we will see for the rest of summer.

Here's what is taking place. There are different connections taking place between the ocean and the atmosphere that can give us some insight as to what will happen next with our weather. One of the connections we are looking at suggest we are moving into a phase 5/6 of the Madden Julian oscillation (no, it has nothing to do with football) and that particular phase would favor a cooling spell for our area of the US. See the map below. It actually means much of the central Plains, the upper Midwest, and areas east of the Mississippi would have cooler than normal weather.

And that is matching up with what we are seeing on some of the extended models too. Take a look at this forecast for the end of July.

Even going into early August, there's a good chance we will escape any chance of a major, prolonged heat wave.
I wouldn't start looking for sweatshirts and heavy coats, but I do think that the hottest part of summer may very well be behind us. Time will tell.

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