Monday, September 10, 2018

Watching Florence - take a look

All eyes this week (and most of the news too) will be on Hurricane Florence which is expected to hit the East coast late in the week. But will it be in Georgia or will it be in North Carolina?

Just look at the difference in computer models. The first one shown below is from the European model, which is a very reliable model and sometimes does a much better job than our American models.

The GFS (Global Forecast System) has Florence hitting the East coast a bit farther north (in North Carolina).

So it's not clear yet exactly where it will go. Remember that the worst side of the storm to be on is the right side (in this case, anywhere north of the eye will be a very rough spot to be in). And this storm could slow down or stall for a period of time. So major flooding is going to be an issue. The official track from the National Hurricane Center is a blend of the two models shown above.

Florence is being driven to the northwest by a large high pressure system that is positioned farther north. Water temperatures in that area are warmer than normal and Florence is right there on the edge of 80+ degree water. So let's continue to watch it through the week and see exactly where its going to go. Have a great day.

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