El Nino continues: Right now, the water along the equator in the Pacific continues to be warmer than average, which puts us in an El Nino setup. It's not record setting or anything out of the ordinary, just water temperatures running about 1°C above normal. It' not even a moderately strong El Nino, but they don't have to be in order to have big impacts on the patterns. It's not the entire Pacific ocean that's warmer than normal. The area that we study closest is highlighted in the box.
How long will it continue: Model projections keep the El Nino around through the rest of summer, through the fall, and right into next winter. If you look at the graph below, you will see the red line is already in El Nino territory and doesn't go up or down much. That would suggest the water temperatures will remain nearly steady, and El Nino conditions should persist for several more months.
What does this mean for Kansas? As we've been suggesting for months, we won't have a scorching summer. All of the rain this spring combined with the weather patterns we are seeing through summer should keep us from any heat waves. That doesn't mean you won't sweat on certain days, but heat waves are not part of our summer this year. Will the El Nino this fall mean more wet weather? It's too early to know the answer, but El Nino setups tend to favor more rain for this area. So we shall see. Let's enjoy our nice summer for now.
If you are into star gazing - Jupiter is what you will want to look for the next several nights. You won't need binoculars, but look to the southeast sky after it gets dark in the evening. It should be pretty bright, unless we have some clouds blanketing the sky above you.
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