April in Kansas normally has its fair share of tornadoes. We are nearing the end of the month without a single one in our state and that's a pretty big deal. Here's why.
Tornado records date back to 1950:
Since then, Kansas has only had 4 years where we didn't have a single tornado all the way through April. Now I understand we still have just under a week to go, but the setup for the last few days of the month doesn't look like one that will produce tornadoes. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but seems unlikely.
Most recently, 2018 had a very slow start to the season, but on May 1st, we started getting severe weather and tornadoes.
When might we have severe weather?
The pattern shown above is not going to be very conducive to severe storms in the final days of April. We will have some rain chances and potential of storms, but with the upper level winds coming from the northwest, I'm not too concerned about widespread hail, wind, or tornadoes.
Early May:
This is notoriously a busy time for severe weather. A number of high profile tornadoes have happened in the first 10 days of May. So much can change as new models come in, but we could be transitioning to some severe weather potential as we get closer to our first full week in May. It could start on May 3 or 4, but we will keep an eye on that particular week as there's a chance things will start up across our area. If our first tornado in springtime happens that week, it will officially be the 4th latest start for us in Kansas (since 1950)
A few of the features we are watching include a stronger branch of upper level winds coming out over the Plains and a series of low pressure systems back across the west. Again, this could change in time but something we will track in the coming days to see if it sets up. I'm not trying to jinx anything - I'm all about quiet weather and nice rains without big hail. But we know it's spring in Kansas after all.
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