Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Wildfires from space & rain is coming!

There are currently a couple of big fires burning in the southwest that are quite visible from space. The three highlighted below are the Mangum, Bighorn, and Bush fires. Some are not expected to be contained until mid-late July.

Monsoon season, which typically gets going in late July through early September, can sometimes help the fire fight. Other times, the dry lightning strikes (lightning with no appreciable rainfall) can start new fires. Right now, the Southwest continues to deal with Red Flag Warnings and extreme heat. It probably doesn't surprise you that its hot there and not likely to cool down much anytime soon.

Storm chances returning Thursday - weekend:

The cold front Thursday will start developing storms after 7-8 p.m. 
There is a small chance a few storms may briefly contain some hail and/or wind, but it doesn't appear that we will have very many severe storms. Areas along and east of a line from Dodge City to Hays should have the higher storm chances.

Friday setup:
If things line up the way we think, a slow moving front that stalls over the Plains should be enough to generate more widely scattered storms on Friday. Again, severe threat is very low, but lightning and heavy downpours will be something to watch.

How much rain?
I would set my expectations around an inch or two - realizing that we are dealing with a potential of heavy rainfall in isolated areas. If you are in the right place, you could get more than 2 inches, but it is impossible to predict exactly where those areas will be. It will be very humid this weekend, so storms again Sunday night could dump heavy amounts.

Next week still has some rain potential too. Timing is still up in the air, but looking at Monday night or early Tuesday for thunderstorms. This could be another front dropping in from the northern Plains with a cool down and highs in the 80s.

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