January outlook - signs of Arctic air

The middle of winter is still weeks away and January can be a very LONG month if it's cold for long periods at a time. January 2020 was warmer than normal for almost ALL of the country (see the image below), and we had just one decent snow event at the end of the month.

Here is what I'm thinking for the remainder of January. 

Now - Jan. 17: Chilly, but not Arctic

This isn't going to be anything surprising for most of you. We will have some cold of course, but nothing out of the ordinary for January. Average highs are in the low 40s now. A few of the days between now and the end of next week might end up below normal, but not by a large margin. It will mainly depend on how much cloud cover we have on different days. It's not exactly what most would consider "warm", but compared to what it could be like, it really doesn't look that cold for the next couple of weeks.

Jan: 18-30: Potential is growing for an Arctic blast

 

The second half of January does have a chance of being colder than normal with Arctic air diving south toward Kansas. Just look at the map showing the average temperatures from January 24-29th and much of the central Plains and northern Plains are likely going colder than normal (even MUCH colder along the US/Canada border) This may translate to highs in the 20s for a few days with lows down in the single digits. That would make it some of the coldest of the season so far.

Snow/Moisture chances:

The pattern is still pretty active for the next couple of weeks. There are at least two storms to watch in the next 10 days. The first rolls through Wednesday/Thursday with VERY light precipitation.

 

 The second feature coming in for the weekend should bring some snow back through southwest Kansas and into parts of Oklahoma and Texas. Best chances for measurable snow will likely be closer to Elkhart, Liberal (generally southwest of Dodge City).

How much snow is left to fall in January? Tough call, but I wouldn't be surprised if the end of the month is active and that could very well carry over into early February. Most of the Plains states still have a good chance at more snow later in the month, but specifics are next to impossible this far out. Stay tuned.