Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Next round, here we go - and a look to late March

Halfway through March with two storms in the books and another one about to hit the Plains. Another round of severe storms is expected Tuesday night/early Wednesday with heavy rainfall, some hail, and eventually snow. 

The setup:

Another strong low pressure will track from the desert Southwest and right into the Plains. An ample supply of humidity remains for this system to interact with, combined with a warm front and strong upper level winds. A favored area of large hail should show up in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma right into Wednesday morning. Storms will tend to more northeast once they get going. 

Timing:

Anytime after 10pm is when most of this will get started. Once the storms take off, they will move northeast with a hail and heavy rain potential.

Rainfall amounts: The actual numbers will vary when all is said and done, but we do feel pretty confident that another inch of rain will fall in southwest, central and eastern Kansas. The northwest will probably get some very light rain or snow, but not anything close to what happened over the weekend.

Winter isn't over just yet:

Big snow fell in Colorado on the backside of our weekend storm, but this time around, a farther south and east track will deliver snow to western Kansas and then eventually some of central/eastern Kansas. It will be close enough to freezing that it should be a heavy wet snow (which means it could pile up in grassy areas fast), but some of it will melt as it comes down too. 

There's still a promising sign of more rain coming during the later stages of the month:

An active storm track will likely persist as we move later into the month. This will likely yield more rain for drought areas across western Kansas. The blue colors indicate nearly "200%" of normal rain, which could easily be another 2 or 3 inches before the month is over. It won't end the drought, but we will end the month in much better shape than how it started. 

Temperatures will probably stay near or slightly below normal and I definitely wouldn't say we've had our last frost/freeze yet. 

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