Our severe weather setup for today (Tuesday) starting gaining some traction last week and there was plenty of chatter about a potential "big day". But as we have seen before, the closer we get in time, new data comes in and models change, it doesn't appear that there will be an outbreak of severe storms. I've had a couple of questions/comments lately wondering if "tornado alley" has shifted. Even though we seem to be in a tornado drought right now, what we know as tornado alley remains (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and parts of the Dakotas). Every year is different and patterns can be strange - that's what makes this an interesting job.
What is a limiting severe factor today?
Looking at dew point temperatures (a measure of how much moisture is in the air) at 5:30pm, they fall into the 40s and 50s. Several factors come into play here, but generally speaking, when dew points are lower (like they are shown above), chances of severe storms decrease significantly. Southwest winds are going to help push some drier air into western and central Kansas, helping to lower the threat of significant hail. Higher humidity ends up south and east of Kansas, so one would expect the storm threat to be higher there.
The cold front will still be crossing the state Wednesday, and it will be enough to trigger more scattered rain and storms. In fact, the majority of the rainfall will probably take place Wednesday afternoon or evening (some amounts may end up near .50"). Rain potential exits the state around midnight.
Early May:
Looks warm to start the month! Good chances for 80s and some 90s returning by the weekend.
We are on the lookout for two more systems coming out of the west in the first part of the month. One will arrive early next week with a second due in around May 10th. It is too early to speculate on severity of storms, but we will be watching. Expect a May outlook later this week.
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