November coming in cold - just may be the beginning

October is wrapping up on a windy and cool note, but the month as a whole was warmer than normal with no snowfall. This will be the first time in over 3 years there was no snow in October for Kansas. 

 

Here's a look at the October temperatures (compared to normal):

Halloween on Sunday (although chillier) won't be anything historic for Kansas. In 2020, we had snow and a major hard freeze leading up to Halloween, but by the holiday itself, temperatures had started to warm back up. Here's a look at some past Halloween data:

November outlook:

First, a reminder of how the month normally goes. We start with normal highs in the mid 60s and 30 days later, the normal drops to 51°.

All signs point toward a good batch of cold air coming south. This should essentially lead to the first hard freeze for the entire area at some point during the week (right now, looking at Thursday morning). If skies clear and winds go calm, it would be likely that we'll see 20s in the morning. 

There is much less certainly surrounding precipitation and the type - will it be some light rain or will snowflakes show in Kansas? We are not picking up on a big storm but the setup may favor a light rain/snow mix for northern Kansas over the course of a few days. Some of it will show up Monday, and there could be some other chances Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Most, if not all of the state will be cloudy with some drizzle or a few rain showers. 

November (as a whole) looks colder than normal:

This time of year, we start looking at the Arctic Oscillation for a prediction that goes beyond what you see on apps and TV. A trend toward "negative" suggests (but doesn't always guarantee) colder stretches ahead.  It is showing a trend toward negative, and goes way down just prior to Thanksgiving. It doesn't mean we will have a record cold Thanksgiving this year, but what you could take away from looking at the chart below is that our warm days in November might be really limited. At a time when natural gas and propane prices are high, we may be spending more on heating down the road.

Precipitation:

Most likely, near normal for a good portion of the Plains. Remember, "normal" moisture in November isn't very much (in most of the state, it's less than .150"). There's still plenty of active weather that will arrive from the West coast, but can we get the moisture to fall in western Kansas? It's been a tall order as of late, so we will see how November goes. 

Have a great day / Happy Halloween!