April rain (or lack thereof) could be historic - severe chances return

The lack of rain this month is about as discouraging as you can get when trying to grow crops, get grass to green up, or put some water in farm ponds. This is NOT usually our wettest month of the year, but one would expect more rain than we've had so far. Unfortunately (but not a surprise) it is very slim pickings when it comes to rain potential to wrap up this month. 

We are anticipating some rain at the end of the week (and drizzle before then). Much of the state is on track to have its top 10 driest months of April on record. Here are the numbers:

In order to remain in top 10 (driest), the month needs to finish less than the numbers shown below:

• Goodland: .36"
• Dodge City: .32"
• Salina: .74"
• Wichita: .57"

This month has also been quite cool, but unlikely to finish in a top 10 "coolest" Aprils.

Here's what the drizzle/light rain shower chances may lead to between Wednesday/Thursday:

Severe chances return - but not really all that alarming:

There are several factors to watch for when forecasting severe weather episodes. One feature includes the upper-level winds (jet stream) and where the strongest winds will be during the warmest hours of the day. Just looking at the Friday setup, note where the strongest winds appear to setup - back in Colorado and New Mexico (not over Kansas). That certainly doesn't eliminate the risk, but it does reduce it somewhat - and the best storm chances for Kansas may not arrive until the overnight hours (especially for western Kansas)

Other factors to watch - where the highest humidity will be and how sharp is the dry line (meaning - how significant is the change from humid to dry over a particular distance). Here's what Friday looks like:

You'll notice that it appears a gradual change from 60s to 20s - over a spread out distance of central and western Kansas. This would suggest to me less of a severe threat - but again, it doesn't eliminate it.

Bottom line is that factors are coming together for some rain and severe weather, but I don't think there's anything alarming here at the end of this week. The severe weather includes much of western Kansas - we need the rain, but it may come with a little bit of hail and some stronger wind gusts as storms roll through. - many of them happening in the overnight hours.

Friday night/Saturday morning - rain chances across the west:

Saturday focus will be farther east - large hail threat and locally heavy rains:

Have a great day.