Is the drought in the West getting any better? Our next storm arriving soon

The significant storms hitting the West have gained extra attention in recent days and weeks. The "atmospheric river" is not something new (just like "polar vortex"), it's been around for a very long time. However, when someone uses it in the national media, people think it's something made up. This is the time of year for areas in the West to get moisture. Look at this bar graph from Sacramento, CA. Most of their yearly rain comes in December and January. 

Drought isn't something that is wiped away after one storm. It takes a series of events to put water back in reservoirs and lakes. Here's the California drought map, comparing last week to the most recent map that was released on Thursday. Remember, the moisture taken into consideration cuts off Tuesday morning, so the most recent storm that hit won't be included in this latest release. We did see the "exceptional" classification dropped entirely from California (good news), but there's still over 70% in severe drought. 

Some of you have asked if all this rain and snow is helping Lake Mead (just outside of Las Vegas that sits behind the Hoover Dam). It has been at record low levels, and the major river that feeds into it is the Colorado River. However, to a smaller degree, the Virgin River and Green River are factors too. 

Image courtesy of Earth.org

We have to look at the precipitation over the Upper Basin (both rain and snow), and from what I have found, there's been some 200-400% of average precipitation throughout a good part of that area. Focus on western Colorado and eastern Utah. That's the important area. Grand Junction, CO has had just over 2 inches since the beginning of November. While that's good, there's going to need to be a bunch more, and a continuation of it throughout the rest of the winter. 

More action for the West coast:

There will be PLENTY more rain to come for California and the west coast over the next several days. In fact, through Thursday (Jan 12), many areas will get 2-6 inches of additional rainfall. I think it's a safe bet that some areas will be either out of drought entirely or back to the lowest level seen in years. However, that moisture will probably NOT fall over the Upper Basin area for the Colorado River. This next round will be more for the far West, and not the interior regions (like Utah and Colorado)

Next storm for KS:

This one should arrive Wednesday night/Thursday (Jan. 11/12). It's not likely to be a huge storm, but there's a chance we'll get both rain and snow when it gets here. Sad reality is that far western Kansas may not get much at all the way it's expected to track. 

There isn't ANY real cold air behind it, so even though you'll notice the winds out of the north, a quick recovery is likely, and we will be back up around 50 in no time at all.

There may not be much snow at all, given the overall temperature setup. We don't know how much rain will fall with the system, but it won't be enough to move the drought needle.