I will admit that the chances are scattered, so amounts will probably vary quite a bit from place to place, but it does appear that we can set our expectations at roughly .25"-.50", and understand some will get a bit more and others less. Nobody will get the kind of rain that eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas is forecast to receive. Wow. Imagine if we could get a good 2 inch rain. Unfortunately, not this time around.
March rainfall update (as of Thursday morning)
- Dodge City: .01" (tied 2nd driest)
- Wichita: .09" (3rd driest)
- Goodland: .09" (5th driest)
- Salina: .21" (10th driest)
New drought map just out Thursday morning:
La Nina checkup:
Here's a quick comparison of how the last 7 months have played out.
See how the below average water temperatures near the Equator (shaded in blue) have essentially disappeared in the most recent update.
We know La Nina is gone, and there's a good chance we will move toward El Nino this fall and into the winter. If you haven't read about it before, El Nino setups tend to favor better rainfall for the central US, especially into fall and winter. The million-dollar question - does the removal of La Nina result in much better moisture this summer? Everyone is tired of drought and ready for it to be gone yesterday. Some are saying this is the worst its been in an extremely long time, or maybe the worst you've ever seen. Let me just say that it's a good thing La Nina is gone, but getting out of this predicament will take many more months.
However, some of the seasonal guidance suggests at least an average or above average monsoon setup in the summer across the Southwest. Some of that moisture may get pulled on to the high plains.
The European Model (sometimes labeled as ECMWF) shows near or above average summer moisture.
Early signs are encouraging, but as you well know, no guarantee. We get some updated material here around the 1st of April, so be sure to check back.
Have a great day.
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