Read with caution, but be optimistic

A spring freeze may have some of us on edge at the end of the week. The latest crop progress and condition report suggested that over 50% of the wheat crop in Kansas is rated poor or very poor due to the ongoing drought. The lack of rain has more than likely slowed the growing down, which might help escape some damage with colder weather hitting late this week and into the weekend. 

The only way I think we can avoid having a hard freeze is if we have some clouds. What are the chances for Saturday morning to have some overcast to prevent several hours of 20° weather? At this time, it appears that some high clouds (probably 15k-20,000 feet) will be coming through, and while that will help, it still allows some of the heat to escape to space. Some of the latest modeling keeps most of the state out of the mid 20s (good), but it still looks cold enough to have some frost and perhaps 2 or 3 hours of sub-freezing weather across the west. 

We are not in the clear from a hard, statewide freeze at this time, but it also doesn't appear as cold given recent updates.

And keep in mind that over the last few years, our last spring freeze has occurred in late April. This is really not unusual, but we could be close to some record lows Saturday morning. 

Rain! Please read and be cautiously optimistic.

Early next week, we are anticipating a slow-moving low pressure that could wobble out of the Rockies. I would highly doubt this to be a severe weather setup. Temperatures look cooler than average, and the overall setup looks like it will be missing several important ingredients. What IS encouraging is that the Gulf of Mexico humidity looks uninterrupted as it travels northward into the Plains. This quality of moisture has been missing with several other setups we've had this spring. That connection is so important in generating our better quantities of rain. If we can get this system to hang out for a few days, most, if not all of Kansas would have rain. It is premature to discuss specific amounts right now, but we should be encouraged by what we see in the setup. We want to fix the drought now (or maybe yesterday), but it's going to take a long time to do that. An inch of rain would go a very long way in helping the wheat and bringing on some spring grass.  

I don't want to put up any precise rain maps and forecast stuff just yet. There's plenty that will adjust as we get closer, but I can leave you with this bit of data. Much of the state should have a good chance of at least getting .50" or more before the week is over. Could we get an inch of moisture? Quite possible, but let's start with smaller amounts now and wait until we get more details as the setup draws near. 

Have a great day. Please cross your fingers and say a little prayer that this moisture next week works out. We are pretty desperate.