We think we have found something - but please be patient

I promised that if we saw something on the horizon (as far as rain is concerned), we'd share the details with you. You don't have to look at a drought map to know it's bad, after all, this is all we've been able to really focus on lately because week after week there's no significant rain. The new map released Thursday (April 6) has 38% of Kansas in the highest level of drought. I've even had some emails from people prepared to accept a significant risk of storms and severe weather IF it meant we'd get some good rain. That's pretty darn desperate, but that's the state of affairs right now with this ongoing lack of rain.

Very small chance, but wanting to point it out anyway:

We are seeing a slight adjustment in the setup for Sunday/Monday. The upper high that we thought would be right OVER Kansas is now looking to be slightly farther west. That opens the door for something spotty to pop up in Kansas. This is a very weak system coming through that might develop a stray shower or storm. I promise you it won't be much, but if you see something off in the distance, you'll know we covered it here. The chance Sunday would be more central Kansas, and then shift east a bit for Monday. The coverage of storms will be sparse at best.

Late in the week:

The upper low coming from the West will approach and humidity should be increase, but will this be enough to set off some rain? We're going to have watch and see how much moisture can return to the Plains, because if there's a limiting factor here, that's what it will be. 

The timing will get worked out as time draws closer, but for now we will leave it as late week and potentially into next weekend (April 15) where rain and some storms may be back. I'm NOT promising widespread activity, but we should have something back in the area.

What I'm showing you below is the % chance of getting .50" of rain between now and April 18. Take it for what it's worth - it's better than a 0% chance. 

It's risky going out on this limb, and I understand that. If you forecast the rain and it doesn't come, money is lost, and tempers start to flare. I think the next 2-3 weeks have potential, so hang in there. 

Tornado Numbers:

Just updating the tornado count from across the US after some very big days of severe weather. We are nearing 500 and its early April. You can see how the red line (the 2023 number) continues to track above the solid black line (average), and unless things to completely quiet for the next month, we will be staying above average.

Kansas numbers look like this through April 5. Even though it's been a very tame season so far, it doesn't mean anything for the rest of the season. 2008 was a record year for Kansas with respect to tornadoes, and look at how slow the season started off. Just one tornado through April 5th that year.

Have a Happy Easter.